BHUBANESWAR: Climate shocks, ranging from erratic rainfall and rising temperatures to floods and droughts, are worsening poverty across India, particularly in regions heavily dependent on agriculture, according to a new first-of-its-kind study by the National Institute of Science Education and Research (Niser), an autonomous research institute under the Department of Atomic Energy.
The research, based on an analysis of 593 districts across 21 states, reveals that poverty in India is no longer just an economic issue but increasingly a climate-linked phenomenon that demands urgent, localised policy responses. Environmental stressors, when combined with structural economic vulnerabilities and social inequalities, push poverty rates higher.
Poverty remains a major global challenge, with nearly 700 million people living in extreme poverty and millions more vulnerable due to climate change. In India, while the poverty headcount ratio has declined from 24.85 per cent to 14.96 per cent and poverty intensity has reduced from 47.14 per cent to 44.39 per cent, challenges persist, particularly due to rising exposure to climate-related shocks.
The study, which used a logistic regression model to examine how climatic, economic, and social variables influence poverty rates, found that variability in maximum temperature has the most severe effect on poverty among all climate variables examined. A rise in temperature fluctuations increases the likelihood of a district being classified as poor, underscoring how extreme heat and unpredictable weather patterns are undermining livelihoods, it said.
Floods and erratic precipitation patterns also play a critical role in affecting the economy. Districts with larger flood-affected areas show a higher probability of poverty, as recurring floods damage crops, infrastructure, and homes, pushing vulnerable populations into cycles of loss and recovery. Similarly, inadequate or uneven rainfall disrupts agricultural productivity and water availability, amplifying economic distress.
One of the major insights of the study is the compounded impact of drought-prone conditions and dependence on the primary sector, particularly agriculture. Districts that are both drought-prone and reliant on farming are 83 per cent more likely to experience high poverty levels compared to others.
This dual vulnerability creates a vicious cycle, as droughts lead to repeated crop failures, declining farm incomes, and rising indebtedness, while the lack of alternative livelihood opportunities prevents households from diversifying income sources. The impact extends beyond crops, affecting livestock, fisheries, and forest-based livelihoods that millions depend on.
Amarendra Das, associate professor at the School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Niser, and coordinator of the DST-Centre for Policy Research, said the empirical analysis shows that both climatic vulnerabilities and economic structure jointly shape district-level poverty outcomes in India.
“The interaction effect of primary sector dependence and drought-prone areas shows a 12.9 per cent increase in the probability of poverty, reflecting the compounded risks faced by primary sector-dependent communities in drought-prone regions,” he said.
A one-unit increase in temperature variation increases the probability of poverty by 31.1 per cent, while a one-unit increase in flood-affected areas raises the likelihood of poverty by 1.4 per cent. Similarly, a one-unit increase in yearly average minimum precipitation raises the probability of poverty by 1.9 per cent.
The researchers also analysed the role of social factors, particularly the concentration of Scheduled Tribe (ST) populations, in shaping poverty outcomes. Districts with higher ST populations show a greater likelihood of poverty, reflecting historical marginalisation, geographic isolation, and dependence on natural resources.
A one-unit increase in tribal population raises the probability of poverty by 1.9 per cent. These communities often reside in ecologically sensitive areas, making them more vulnerable to climate shocks. Limited access to infrastructure, markets, and institutional support further compounds their challenges, resulting in a disproportionate burden of climate-induced poverty.
In contrast to agriculture-dependent regions, the study found that districts with a higher share of the tertiary sector — such as services, trade, and information technology — tend to have lower poverty rates. A one-unit increase in the tertiary sector’s share in gross state domestic product decreases the probability of poverty by 1.9 per cent.
“This shows that economic diversification acts as a buffer against climate shocks. Service-oriented economies are less directly exposed to weather disruptions and offer more stable income opportunities. Regions with stronger service sectors also tend to have better infrastructure, higher literacy rates, and improved access to healthcare, all of which enhance resilience,” said Sasmita Behera, another researcher.
However, the study observed that these benefits are unevenly distributed, with rural and eastern regions lagging in access to such opportunities. Higher poverty levels were observed in eastern states — Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar, and West Bengal — where the share of the tertiary sector is relatively low.
By contrast, districts in southern states such as Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and parts of western states like Gujarat and Maharashtra, which have a higher share of the tertiary sector, showed lower poverty rates. This divergence reflects broader structural economic patterns, where regions with more diversified and service-oriented economies tend to be more resilient to poverty. Stronger infrastructure, higher human capital, and policy support for skill development in southern and western states reinforce this trend.
The researchers argue that India must move beyond one-size-fits-all approaches and adopt region-specific strategies to tackle climate-induced poverty. Although national efforts such as the National Action Plan on Climate Change, State Action Plans on Climate Change, and the SDG (sustainable development goal) India Index reflect commitments to resilience and poverty reduction, implementation gaps persist, especially at the sub-national level.
“Climate adaptation policies often overlook localised vulnerabilities, institutional capacity differences, and structural inequalities. Understanding how climate shocks interact with economic and social conditions at the district level is critical for designing targeted and effective poverty alleviation strategies,” said Laxmikanta Gual, another author of the study.
The study recommends promoting climate-resilient agriculture through drought-resistant crops and efficient irrigation systems, expanding non-farm employment opportunities to reduce dependence on agriculture, and strengthening disaster management systems to minimise the impact of floods and extreme weather events.
As India strives to meet its SDGs — particularly those related to poverty, hunger, and climate action — the study underscores the urgency of integrated policymaking, arguing that addressing climate change and poverty in isolation will not yield sustainable outcomes.
“Effective policy interventions must address both economic and institutional factors contributing to poverty. Regions with better infrastructure, diversified economies, and stronger institutional frameworks, such as those in southern India, demonstrate greater resilience against climate shocks. Policymakers must adopt a regionally tailored, multi-pronged strategy to reduce climate-induced poverty,” Das added.
Source: Business Standard
