NEW DELHI: Extreme heat is emerging as a structural threat to India’s economic growth and employment, with rising temperatures expected to weigh on labour productivity, infrastructure, and urbanisation unless adaptation measures are accelerated, the World Bank said in a report released on Friday.
Heat exposure cost the country an estimated 247 billion potential labour hours and $194 billion in potential income in 2024, with agriculture accounting for 66 per cent of lost labour hours and construction another 20 per cent, said the report titled ‘A Livable Future: Protecting Jobs and Growth from Extreme Heat in South Asia’s Cities’.
The report warned that the challenge will intensify as South Asia adds around 280 million working-age people by 2050, most of them in cities, even as extreme heat is already costing the region the equivalent of 31 million full-time jobs annually through lower productivity. Without adequate adaptation, South Asia’s gross domestic product (GDP) could be nearly 7 per cent lower by 2050, it cautioned.
“For the poorest, in informal settlements, on construction sites, in streets and markets with little shade or green cover, the exposure is most acute. These cities are growing rapidly, concentrating ever more people in densely built environments where the urban heat island (UHI) effect adds yet more heat to an already extreme baseline. Rising temperatures will increasingly shape where people can work, how productively they can work, and which cities prove attractive for investment,” said the report.
For India, rising temperatures are expected to place increasing pressure on power systems and urban infrastructure, said the report. Electricity demand reached a record 156 billion units in May 2024, up 15 per cent from a year earlier, driven partly by rising cooling needs, while air-conditioner sales increased an estimated 34 per cent between 2023 and 2024. The report said temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius increase the frequency of power outages by 20-50 per cent and their duration by 15-60 per cent, undermining the reliability of electricity supply during periods of peak demand.
Heat is also expected to raise risks for transport infrastructure and public health. The report cited heat-related damage to the Mumbai-Nagpur Expressway and warned that temperatures at Delhi’s Indira Gandhi International Airport could approach or exceed 50 degrees Celsius for multiple days each year by 2030, potentially forcing aircraft to reduce passenger or cargo loads during take-off. It also estimated that a single five-day heatwave in India is associated with around 30,000 excess deaths, suggesting the health burden of extreme heat is significantly higher than officially recorded heatstroke fatalities.
The report cited a 2025 survey of Delhi street vendors, in which 90 per cent said they had cut working hours during the summer because of extreme heat, while 72 per cent reported losses from heat-damaged inventory.
The World Bank recommended embedding heat resilience into existing government programmes rather than creating new ones. It called for incorporating passive cooling measures into the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana, strengthening protections for outdoor workers and formally recognising heatwaves as notified disasters to improve access to relief funding. The report also estimated that India represents a $1.6 trillion investment opportunity in sustainable cooling by 2040, while a proposed programme to expand domestic manufacturing of affordable cooling equipment could create nearly 3.7 million jobs over the same period.
“A World Bank cost-benefit analysis found that heat early warning systems in Indian cities return roughly $50 for every $1 spent on them. By strengthening preparedness and response at the subnational level, authorities can protect residents and keep local economies working through the hottest months of the year,” the report said.
Source: Business Standard
