By Dr. Gyan Pathak
Before Legislative Assembly Election of Punjab to be held early in 2027, the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) have entered clearly as front-runner. Chief Opposition party Congress is undergoing a serious infighting, while Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and the BJP have still limited influence in certain regions.
AAP had won the 2022 elections in the state with overwhelming majority winning 92 seats out of 117 in the Legislative Assembly. It votes share was 42.01 per cent. Nevertheless, five years of rules have brought anti-incumbency against it, and people are heard criticizing its performance on the issues like unemployment, agriculture policies, drug abuse, fiscal management, industrial investments, and also on law and order issue. These are some of the early indications that may shape political narrative in the coming months.
People of Punjab had very high expectations from AAP, which the party has not been able to satisfy. In addition to that several new issues have emerged, including Sikh religious and Panthic issues that are becoming more prominent in political discourse in the state, and that have complicated the AAP’s political stance and campaign that were primarily centred on government’s performance on several sectors such as education and health.
In this situation AAP’s political strength lies on it advantage as the ruling party under Chief Minister Bhagwant Singh Mann. Party has also a parallel organizational advantage compared to any other political party. The party continues to campaign on improvements in government schools, health facilities, free electricity, and anti-corruption initiatives. These still attract large number of voters.
The recent elections held in May 2026 show that AAP has also emerged as the largest party across urban local bodies, suggesting that it still retains its political appeal among the urban voters.
AAP’s political dominance seems presently unchallenged. Chief Opposition Congress is suffering from serious infighting, which brings the memory of the 2022 elections in the state, when the party was thrown out of power by AAP. It was due to infighting, Congress CM Captain Amarinder Singh had to resign on September 20, 2021, and Congress leader Charanjit Singh Channi became Chief Minister before 2022 election. Captain Amarinder Singh had then floated his own political party named Punjab Lok Congress and contested election. It had a very bad effect on the electoral outcome for the Congress, which could win only 18 seats with 22.98 per cent of vote share. They lost 59 seats and 15.52 per cent of votes.
In the light of such a bad experience, the current infighting in Congress is likely to further damage the political prospect of the party in the forthcoming assembly election. Though the Congress, as the Chief Opposition in the state, has been seriously campaigning against the ruling AAP, its factionalism has recently been come to a flashpoint. Congress leadership is struggling to contain it but so far has not been succeeded. The leadership battle is now in full public gaze. Former Congress leader and CM Charanjit Singh Channi has threatened to settle every account by posting on social media, “Some people are under the impression that we will not respond. The preparation is much bigger. Be patient, we will settle every account.”
In response to the threat, Punjab Congress president Amarinder Singh Raja Warring, said, “Nobody wins elections by posting reels. If social media alone decided elections, Sidhu Moosewala would never have lost.
Congress infighting will have serious political implication in the state politics. There is no doubt that there are anti-AAP votes in the state. Such votes would have easily gone to the Congress, but their infighting may push them towards the BJP and the SAD, though they have limited influence in some region of the state.
SAD was the third biggest party in the state in the 2022 election. It had won only 3 seats, but had bagged 18.38 per cent of votes. It had suffered a sharp decline and lost 12 seats and 6.86 per cent of votes. BJP and SAD had parted their ways after the farmers protest in Punjab and Delhi, and contested election separately. BJP could also win 2 seats only, after losing 1 seat and 6.6 per cent of votes.
Both SAD and BJP have been trying their best to recover their lost ground, but there is not definite sign of their considerable gain. SAD remains to be regionally influential up to a limit only. SAD’s biggest challenge is to convince voters that it has changed from the party they rejected in 2022, and it is very difficult in the present political scenario in the state.
As for the BJP, its central leadership seems to be very active in attracting Dalit voters of the state and politicians from other political parties to join them. However, it still faces challenges on account of its organizational weakness. The party has still little support base in the state, despite PM Narendra Modi’s political outreach events organized to attract Dalit and other communities in the state. (IPA Service)
