By Dr. Gyan Pathak
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been trying to contest Jammu and Kashmir Vidhan Sabha election on the issue of terrorism and separatism, but with the beginning of the election campaign for the first phase of election, the issue of restoration of statehood has clearly emerged as the main issue. Loss of statehood in August 2019, and now the people’s dream of regaining it, seem to be a driving political force, likely to impact the outcome of the Vidhan Sabha election result, which may shape the political future of the state.
Out of 90 Vidhan Sabha constituencies, elections to the 24 seats have been scheduled in the first phase to be held on September 18, 2024. The Last date for withdrawal of candidature for the Phase-I election was August 30, and with it the picture is clear as to who are the contesting candidates. Phase-II and Phase-III elections are scheduled for September 25, and October 1. Date of counting of votes have been rescheduled from October 4 to October 8. Election to the state’s legislative assembly is being held after a gap of 10 years after the last election held in 2014.Elections are being held after the Supreme Court’s direction to the Election Commission to hold it before September 30, 2024. Elections are being held after fresh delimitation of the constituencies.
Much has been changed in the last 10 years. The state has undergone abrogation of Article 370 and abolition of Article 35A of the Constitution of India, statehood was done away with, and bifurcated into two Union Territories. PM Narendra Modi led Centre has promised restoration of statehood to the remaining Jammu and Kashmir but it remains a promise. However, the people across the parties, including of the BJP, are still dreaming for restoration of statehood.
INDIA bloc is contesting jointly which is comprised of Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC), INC, CPI(M), and JKNPP. BJP, JKPDP, AAP, JKAP, DPAP, JKPC, JKPM, and BSP are other contestant political parties.
Out of the 24 assembly constituencies going to polls in the first phase, JKNC is contesting on 17, Congress on 9 seats, and CPI(M) on 1 seat. Ideally, Congress and JKNC should not have even in friendly contests in any of the seats but both of them are contesting on 4 – Banihal, Doda, Bhadarwah, and Devsar seats. It certainly weakens the position of INDIA bloc in the first phase. BJP is contesting all the seats though it is weak in all of them. JKPDP is contesting on 12 seats which is likely to give tough fight to INDIA bloc candidates.
The districts where elections are being held in the first phase are –Pulwama, Shopian, Kulgam, Anantnag, Kishtwar, Doda and Ramban. These districts are known for terror attacks hence elections have become very sensitive. Out of the 24 constituencies, 5 are under the Srinagar Lok Sabha Constituency – Pamore, Tral, Pulwama, Rajpora and Shopian; 11 are under Anantnag-Rajoiri Lok Sabha Constituency – Zainapora, DH Pora, Kulgam, Devsar, Dooru, Kokernag, Anantnag West, Anantnag, Srigufwara-Bijbehara, Shangus-Anantanag East, and Phalgam; and 8 are under Udhampur Lok Sabha Constituency–Inderwal, Kishtwar, Padder-Nagseni, Bhadarwah, Doda, Doda West, Ramban, and Banihal.
BJP has considerable support base in the Udhampur region and hence it is trying its best to win maximum number of seats from there.. However, the BJP is in tough contest with INC in Inderwal and Doda West, and with JKNC in Kishtwar, Padder-Nagseni and Ramban. BJP seems to have clear upper hand in Bhadarwah, Doda, and Banihal because JKNC and INC candidates are also contesting.
As for Srinagar and Anantnag-Rajouri, both JKNC, Congress, and JKPDP have their own pocket of influence. JKNC had won both the Srinagar and Anantnag-Rajouri Lok Sabha constituencies. JKNC defeated JKPDP candidates in Srinagar by a huge margin of 1,88,416 and in Anantnag-Rajouri by 2,81,794 votes, which shows clear edge of the party in about 16 Vidhan Sabha seats going to polls in the region. It means the first phase of J&K election is advantage INDIA bloc.
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, who kick-started the party’s campaign in the state on September 4, has said that his party would “restore statehood to J&K after coming to power” adding “The BJP has to announce the restoration of statehood to J&K, else the INDIA bloc will be doing it as its first step after dethroning Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his party. We will ensure the return of statehood to the region, whether the BJP wants it or not. We will pressurise the government under the banner of the INDIA alliance.”Congress has also raised the issue of corruption, grabbing state’s resources by outsiders, rising prices, high taxes, and joblessness.
JKNC in its manifesto has also promised to pass a resolution in the Vidhan Sabha against the abrogation of Article 370 and abolitions of Article 35 A of the Constitution of India and restoration of J&K’s special status and identity. JKNC leader Omar Abdullah has appealed to the electorate and said that his and his party’s honour is at their hand.
BJP has sharply criticised the Congress for making alliance with the JKNC and Union Home Minister has raised 10 questions against the Congress leadership, which are anchoring on the allegation that INDIA alliance is against India. Congress has shown the BJP a mirror that they had also alliances with JKNC and JKPDP in the past and hence their allegation now is sheer hypocrisy. BJP has alleged that INDIA bloc is taking help from separatists during election campaign. (IPA Service)
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