By Ashis Biswas
KOLKATA: As tensions persist along the disturbed segments of the Indo-Bangladesh border running through the Northern and central districts of West Bengal, it seems an uneasy bilateral truce will prevail in the medium term. The process of the GOI-declared repatriation of illegal Bangladeshi settlers may run into a stalemate for now, but as things stand, Bangladesh stands poised to lose far more diplomatically, in strategic terms.
With official propaganda machines running full blast on Delhi’s decision to complete the fencing of the Indo-Bangla border in North Bengal, people on both sides are being exposed to fundamentally contrarian narratives regarding the present situation. This is probably the first time such a phenomenon is occurring in the East after the critical partition years.
At the moment: majoritarian opinion in Bangladesh holds India responsible for the fresh diplomatic tensions along with escalations in force mobilisations etc at the ground level. Sporadic clashes have broken out but fortunately not allowed to spread by either side, suggesting that both sides wish to avoid full scale hostilities over the matter.
Diplomatically, a different narrative runs in Bangladesh. Following an initial move by Bangladesh with overt Chinese and Pakistani support to portray/ internationalise the incidents as an attack by the mighty Indians against their smaller Eastern neighbours, there naturally followed a temporary pause in border related activities. During this time, influential circles in Bangladesh projected this as a major diplomatic success for Dhaka as against Delhi. The ruling administration too, spared no efforts to mobilise large crowds close to the international border in many areas apparently to maintain a hostile presence against India.
All this went on, even as official spokesmen repeated ad nauseam in Dhaka the official Bangladeshi stand that no ‘push-ins’ of illegal immigrants from India would be tolerated without due verification.
After India’s firm reiteration of its pledge to complete the West Bengal/Bangladesh 569 kilometres long border fencing once and for all, never mind the international pressures etc, the cheering weakened markedly in Bangladesh. There was also greater understanding internationally that India was building a fence well inside its own territory, unlike what had been claimed initially by various pro-Bangladesh/lobbyists/Islamists.
Nevertheless Bangladesh did win some short term gains. It is now clear that what GOI had hoped for after the historic win of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the West Bengal Assembly elections — a swift and effective implementation of the 3D exercise (detection, deletion, deport) to end the menace o Bangladeshi infiltration — will not happen smoothly. The current procedure in place — rounding up of suspected non Indian citizens into detention camps, prior to Bangladeshi verification followed by if necessary a final push out — will work as before.
This is .hardly good news for GOI. Bangladesh is yet to announce its stand one way or the other, regarding the fate of nearly 3000 people declared non citizens by India and kept in detention camps, since 2020! There are suggestions that the Dhaka-based establishment has been emboldened to ignore Indian requests/reminders over the matter by its own experience in handling lakhs of Rohingya refugees from Myanmar and particularly the indifference of the world at large to its plight!
This should provide enough cheer for the rabidly anti Indian Islamic media in Bangladesh and its team of youtubers for months to come. However, saner opinion makers and analysts in Bangladesh view the matter differently. Too well they understand the long term dangers Bangladesh may well be inviting for itself by provoking its much bigger stronger neighbour that surrounds on three sides!
One analyst pointed out that at Hatimpur area, only one of several points through which significant crowds of illegal immigrants including families and children, were stranded for several days at no man’s land, numbering around 750/800. Yet Bangladesh officially reported that ‘only 100 or so people ‘ had arrived! If this was the extent of official Bangladeshi underreporting of the undocumented Bangladeshi movement out of India in acute distress, he said, where will it all end? ‘After all, these are all Bangladeshis, they admit it themselves who are now trying to return to Khulna, Jessore, Dhaka , Barisal….they had been working on Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, from where they had been remitting money …. Surely Dhaka has a duty, towards them,’ he said.
Another participant in a televised debate pointed out that .India would only need to invite the international media to talk to such stranded Bangladeshis, to expose the ruthless indifference of the present Dhaka rulers to their compatriots in distress. It would severely stretch the already strained Bangladeshi economy, either to organise relief and arrange for the rehab of the thousands of people trying to return, let alone allowing them to reenter their motherland! Such press coverage would nearly destroy the image of Bangladesh abroad, he feared, not to mention the imminent damage it would be to the economy of Bangladesh.
There is no doubt again that the eventual number of illegal immigrants to be handled would exceed lakhs. So far, says West Bengal Chief Minister Mr Suvendu Adhikari, nearly 5000 people had been sent/pushed back, while another 900-odd people were being held in camps in West Bengal, soon to be handed over to the BSF authorities. The figures refer only to West Bengal, not Tripura or Assam. At the same time, BSF personnel, stopped and turned back at least 50 people trying to sneak into India from two unfenced areas, going to look for work aboard. Natural question: Do Bangladesh Government authorities have any sort of economic programmes/ special schemes designed to provide work at home for their compatriots? The answer may be blowing in the wind, as the saying goes. (IPA Service)
