The meeting at the Continental Club marks one of the bloc’s most difficult coordination exercises since its formation, with Congress seeking to hold together a reduced but still broad opposition platform at a time when the government is expected to revive contentious constitutional changes linked to delimitation and women’s reservation. Congress has indicated that 23 parties will attend, including the Trinamool Congress, Samajwadi Party, National Conference and the CPM.
The absence of the DMK is the most visible setback. M K Stalin’s party has made clear that it will stay away after the collapse of its long alliance with Congress in Tamil Nadu. The rupture followed the state election outcome and Congress’s decision to align with the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam government led by Vijay, a move that has caused unease among several regional parties that view Congress’s state-level choices as a test of its reliability as a national partner.
The Trinamool Congress is attending, but from a weaker position than it had expected only months ago. Mamata Banerjee had been seen by several opposition parties as a possible non-Congress pole within the INDIA bloc, but the Bengal election reversal has reduced her leverage and made the party more dependent on wider opposition support. Trinamool leaders are expected to raise the issue of alleged attacks on their cadres and seek backing from other parties.
Derek O’Brien sought to project unity ahead of the meeting, saying the parties were gathering with “a common purpose and clear intent” and that the INDIA bloc remained united. His statement reflected the pressure on opposition leaders to contain public signs of strain even as the bloc enters the meeting with unresolved disagreements over leadership, parliamentary tactics and state-level alliances.
AAP’s decision to publicly distance itself from the bloc has added another complication. The CPM will attend despite its own friction with Congress, particularly over remarks by Rahul Gandhi alleging a political understanding between Kerala’s former chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan and the BJP. CPM general secretary M A Baby had written to Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge over the remarks, underlining the distrust that continues to shadow coordination among opposition parties.
The immediate parliamentary challenge is likely to centre on delimitation and women’s reservation. The government had introduced a legislative package in April that included the Constitution Bill, the Delimitation Bill and a related Union Territories measure. The package sought to increase the maximum strength of the Lok Sabha to 850, enable delimitation using the 2011 census and operationalise one-third reservation for women in the Lok Sabha and state assemblies.
The earlier attempt failed to secure the required two-thirds support, with opposition parties arguing that women’s reservation should not be tied to a delimitation framework that could alter the balance of parliamentary representation among states. Parties from the south have been especially wary, contending that states which achieved lower population growth should not be penalised through reduced relative representation.
The delimitation proposal carries major political consequences. If Lok Sabha seats were reworked on the basis of the 2011 census without expanding the House, Tamil Nadu’s share would fall from 39 to 32 and Kerala’s from 20 to 15, while Uttar Pradesh would rise from 80 to 89, Bihar from 40 to 46 and Rajasthan from 25 to 30. Even if the total size of the Lok Sabha were expanded, the relative shift towards more populous northern states would remain a central point of dispute.
The 106th Constitutional Amendment, passed in 2023, provided for one-third reservation for women in the Lok Sabha and state assemblies, but its implementation was linked to delimitation after the first census following the amendment. With the census reference date fixed for March 1, 2027, doubts have persisted over whether the reservation could be implemented before the 2029 general election without fresh legal changes.
