IPA Newspack
  • Home
  • now
  • politics
  • business
  • markets

IPA /

IPA Special

IPA Special

Ukraine Joins Afghanistan In Shaping Gulf Rivalries

By James M Dorsey

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan was a geopolitical watershed. Its shockwaves continue to reverberate and are magnified by the wars in Ukraine and Yemen. Coupled with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the US withdrawal removed a major obstacle to Iranian projection in Central Asia and created an opportunity for Iran to potentially enhance its influence, increase trade, and expand security cooperation in Central Asia.

Moreover, the withdrawal worked in Iran’s favour by putting one more nail in the coffin of an almost 80-year-old alliance between the United States and Iran’s arch-rival, Saudi Arabia.

Already angry at US President Joe Biden’s refusal to deal directly with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman because of the 2018 Saudi killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Saudi Arabia saw the bungled withdrawal, along with the US failure to respond robustly to attacks on critical Gulf state infrastructure by Iran and Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen as further evidence of America’s increasing unreliability as a security guarantor.

Last month’s revival of security talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia highlighted the arc that links the Ukrainian and Yemeni wars with the withdrawal. Saudi Arabia is groping for an exit from an eight-year-long war in Yemen that has cost it significant reputational damage and raised questions about its military capabilities.

The talks with Iran broke off shortly after the US withdrawal. However, they were revived as Russia struggled to achieve some semblance of victory in Ukraine. The timing highlighted that Iran’s options might be less curtailed by the Afghanistan, Ukraine, and Yemen wars than those of other regional players.

Ukraine has taken Russia out of the equation as a possible guarantor of security or an alternative to the United States as an arms supplier for Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states. That leaves Saudi Arabia worried about its ability to protect itself despite increased military prowess and an armoury filled with some of the world’s most sophisticated weaponry, with no good options.

The kingdom may be looking at China but is likely to discover that it is looking at a power that still lacks the capability and the will to replace the United States and would likely extract a higher price for offering to guarantee regional security.

Few would argue that the scenes of tens of thousands at Kabul airport trying to flee Afghanistan as American troops withdrew inspired confidence in US protection.

The ability of the United States and Europe to bolster Ukrainian resistance will likely have mitigated to some degree the impact of the dramatic pictures from Kabul.

At the same time, Gulf states, if attacked, may not have the wherewithal of the Ukrainians if the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait is anything to go by. That drives home the Gulf states’ dependence on a third-party security guarantor in the absence of confidence-inspiring multilateral, regional arrangements.

Kuwaitis largely fled their country at the time while a US-led coalition forced Iraq to withdraw. In the wake of Ukraine, Russia is too preoccupied to take on other major military commitments, and China would not entertain the idea. That leaves the US for the foreseeable as the Gulf states’ only alternative.

Viewed from Tehran, the post-US withdrawal world is a different world in which the United States has been humbled and removed from one of its borders. It is a world where the Taliban-governed Afghanistan is a more immediate problem for Iran than the Gulf states.

In recent days, Iran has reportedly moved additional military forces, including the army’s 88th armoured division, to its border with Afghanistan amid rising tensions with the Taliban. Iranian officials say border guards have acted with “restraint” in the face of alleged provocative actions by Taliban forces. The troops were ordered to the border after Pakistani militants, based in eastern Afghanistan, stepped up their attacks inside Pakistan.

Last month, two Pakistani airstrikes in eastern Afghanistan killed at least 40 people, including some civilians. The United Nations said that 20 children were among the dead. The strikes occurred against areas believed to have been from where militants had killed seven soldiers in Pakistan.

Pakistan hasn’t confirmed the airstrikes and declined to comment on the civilian deaths but said earlier that “terrorists were using Afghan soil with impunity to carry out activities inside Pakistan.”

Anti-Iranian protests in Herat and Kabul and the stabbing by an Afghan national of three clerics in Iran also fuelled tensions between the two countries. The incidents cast a shadow over Iranian efforts to capitalise on the fallout in Central Asia of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The Taliban’s acting minister for refugees and repatriations, Khalilurahman Haqqani, is expected to visit Tehran in the coming days in an effort to reduce tensions.

“Yemen and Ukraine are not major headaches for Iran. Afghanistan is,” said an Arab diplomat. (IPA Service)

By arrangement with the Arabian Post

IPA Special

Hardik Patel’s Political Future Still Remains Uncertain After Exit From Congress

May 25, 2022
IPA Special

Modi Government Is Still Making All Efforts To Retain Section 124A

May 25, 2022
IPA Special

Saudi Crown Prince Bin Salman’s Heady Days Are Here

May 25, 2022
Politics

Row over Rahul’s meeting with ‘anti-India’ Corbyn

May 25, 2022
Politics

SC asks Jharkhand HC to decide on probe against CM

May 25, 2022
Politics

G-23 leaders in Sonia’s key group to anchor party strategy

May 25, 2022
Politics

Chidambaram’s son alleges witch hunt in new CBI case

May 25, 2022
Business

Quad initiative to monitor Indo-Pacific maritime activities

May 25, 2022
IPA Special

U.S. Sponsored IPEF Is A Counter To Just Not China But To BRICS Also

May 24, 2022
IPA Special

Coming Biennial Elections For 57 Rajya Sabha Seats Significant

May 24, 2022
IPA Special

TRS Supremo K. Chandrasekhar Rao’s Moves On Presidential Poll Make Sense

May 24, 2022
IPA Special

Congress Unit In Uttar Pradesh Starts Implementing Udaipur Decisions

May 24, 2022
IPA Special

Bangladesh Feeling Impact Of Ukraine War On Its Exchange Rate

May 24, 2022
IPA Special

Narendra Modi Is Now Following U.S. President Joe Biden In Most Global Issues

May 24, 2022
IPA Special

Places Of Worship (Special Provisions) Act, 1991 Is Binding

May 24, 2022
IPA Special

Never-Ending Plans To Expand NATO In Europe Threaten World Peace

May 24, 2022
Happening Now

Quad a force for good, Modi tells Tokyo summit

May 24, 2022
Happening Now

TN minister challenges Nirmala Sitharaman on fuel tax cuts

May 24, 2022
Happening Now

Crucial parleys ahead of Rajya Sabha, presidential polls

May 24, 2022
Happening Now

Air India asks staff to vacate govt housing colonies

May 24, 2022

An appeal

The legacy of IPA, founded by Nikhil Chakravartty, the doyen of journalism in India, to keep the flag of independent media flying high, is facing the threat of extinction due to the effect of the Covid pandemic. Only an emergency funding can avert such an eventuality. We appeal to all those who believe in the freedom of expression to contribute to this noble cause.
Click here to learn more

Share

Reply

  • 0
More on IPA

Hardik Patel’s Political Future Still Remains Uncertain After Exit From Congress

May 25, 2022 3:51 pm | IPA Staff

By Harihar Swarup The Nav Sankalp Shirvir focused on youth. So, it is ironic, that Hardik Patel, who was the Congress’s working president in the...

IPA Special

Modi Government Is Still Making All Efforts To Retain Section 124A

May 25, 2022 3:49 pm | IPA Staff

By Prof G Mohan Gopal The opening gambit of the Union Government in response to a writ petition at the Supreme Court challenging the constitutionality...

IPA Special

Saudi Crown Prince Bin Salman’s Heady Days Are Here

May 25, 2022 3:46 pm | IPA Staff

By James M Dorsey These are heady days for Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. With King Salman home after a week in hospital during...

IPA Special

U.S. Sponsored IPEF Is A Counter To Just Not China But To BRICS Also

May 24, 2022 4:45 pm | IPA Staff

By Nitya Chakraborty The announcement made in Tokyo on Monday by the United States President Joe Biden about the formation of a new economic block...

IPA Special

Hardik Patel’s Political Future Still Remains Uncertain After Exit From Congress

in IPA Special
May 25, 2022   ·  

Modi Government Is Still Making All Efforts To Retain Section 124A

in IPA Special
May 25, 2022   ·  

Saudi Crown Prince Bin Salman’s Heady Days Are Here

in IPA Special
May 25, 2022   ·  

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.

Follow us on
Up Next: BJP Policies Are Meant To Marginalise The Muslims In Terms Of Economic Power
©2020 -2021 India Press Agency, All Rights Reserved
Newspack by India Press Agency
Posting....
logo
  • Home
  • now
  • politics
  • business
  • markets