Reports coming from the ground after the first two phases of polling in Uttar Pradesh is that SP-RLD alliance is way ahead over BJP. The impact of the farmers’ agitation is most evident in the assembly seats, which are adjacent to Delhi, such as Muzaffarnagar, Baghpat, Shamli, Hapur, Bulandshahar, Meerut, Gautam Budh Nagar, Ghaziabad, Mathura, Agra and Aligarh districts. There has been a lot of resentment against the BJP in these farmer-dominated areas. The Rashtriya Lok Dal, which won only one seat in 2017 from the area, has now become the most important party in the first phase. The importance of Chaudhary Jayant Singh, grandson of former Prime Minister Chaudhary Charan Singh, seems to have increased exponentially following the farmers’ agitation. According to political observers, another important development is that Jats and Muslims are united and mostly voted for SP-RLD alliance in the first phase. The low voter turnout in urban booths, the patience shown by Muslim voters despite provocations and heavy turnout at booths dominated by farming communities seem to have unnerved the BJP. The SP-RLD alliance claims to have made significant gains in the first phase of polling. While the extent of these gains may be unclear, it is true that the farmers’ protest did wean a section of Jat voters off the BJP. On February 14, polling took place in the predominantly Muslim parts of Uttar Pradesh. BJP was hoping for a big split in Muslim votes in the region. There are 77 Muslim candidates in the fray for the 55 seats, but it seems the community has voted tactically. In Bijnor, Moradabad, Rampur, Amroha, and Sambhal, where the Muslim community seem to have voted in favour of the SP-RLD alliance, apparently for a change. The nine districts that went to poll include eight from Rohilkhand and one from upper Doab. The 55 seats in these nine districts recorded around 61% voter turn-out. For BJP this is disheartening, while the Samajwadi Party led alliance is hoping for a clean sweep in the districts of Amroha, Sambhal, and Moradabad. Claiming historic voting for the SP-RLD candidates, SP chief Akhilesh Yadav has said the people have subdued the “garmi” (haughtiness) of Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath in the first two phases of the UP assembly elections.
CONGRESS SMELLS VICTORY IN UTTARKHAND AND GOA
Congress leaders have been speculating that they are winning in Uttarakhand and Goa. But are worried for the upcoming election results in Punjab. The incumbent Congress is being forced to re-strategise after an internal assessment, and few senior party leaders are of the view that AAP is emerging as the real contender in 2022 Punjab elections.. Both Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra are campaigning in Punjab. Indian Youth Congress president Srinivas BV has been camping in the state for a week as the party has asked him to ensure that the people are told time and again that it was the Congress, not AAP, which helped the people of Delhi during the ferocious second wave of Covid-19. Chhattisgarh CM Bhupesh Baghel and other senior leaders are camping in Punjab. Rahul Gandhi has addressed meetings in Bassi Pathana and Fatehgarh Sahib, while Priyanka Gandhi has addressed rallies in Ludhiana and Pathankot. The Congress is now focusing all its ire on AAP. Congress general secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadratoo has criticized the AAP, calling it the “B Team of the BJP”. Campaign slogans and video clips pushing Channi as an ‘Aam Aadmi Ka CM’ is part of Congress’ counter-strategy.
KARNATAKA CM BOMMAI IN SOUP AFTER BYPOLL DEFEATS
Karnataka CM Basavaraj Bommai has been walking on fire ever since he assumed office in July 2021. He was a surprise choice to replace former CM and big Lingayat leader BS Yeddiurappa. It is Bommai’s background as a socialist and his part of being in the undivided Janata Dal that has been haunting him for long. The ongoing hijab row that has led to massive protests in the state has become the litmus test which he must pass with flying colours. After pushing through an anti-conversion bill, Bommai is now trying his best to show his hardcore Hindutva side. But the BJP is unhappy over defeat in by-elections and local body polls, including in Bommai’s own constituency Hanagal in Haveri district. The defeats have caused concern among party leaders for the upcoming Assembly polls in 2023. Further, the resentment of several state ministers and MLAs against the Chief Minister has intensified the cloud of worries. According to sources, the central leadership is not happy over the performance of Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai. As the BJP is busy in the elections of the five states, the decision in this regard could be taken once the polls conclude. According to the report, the BJP may select a young face ahead of the Assembly polls and the new face could be from the politically influential Panchamasaali Lingayat community. It is being speculated that the party may also go for a Dalit face for the Chief Ministerial post.
DISGRUNTLED ASHWANI KUMAR’S EXIT RATTLES CONGRESS LEADERSHIP
After former Union Law Minister Ashwani Kumar left the Congress, party leader Manish Tewari called the decision unfortunate and said that the ambition for Rajya Sabha seat makes people do many things. Tewari said: “He is a good person, a very good lawyer who has excellent arguments. Something may be true in what he has said in his resignation letter. These concerns were brought to the notice of the party high command by the G23 group in 2020. But his eye is on a Rajya Sabha seat.” Day before, Kumar had resigned from Congress after a long association of 46 years with the party. Congress leaders claimed that Ashwani Kumar was seeking a ticket for his son Ashish Kumar from Sujanpur assembly constituency, which was denied. Congress gave a ticket to Naresh Puri, who contested the last election as an independent candidate. Ashwani Kumar’s decision to quit Congress has created ripples in the political circles, particularly his statement about the AamAadami Party that it is going to form the next government in Punjab.
EYE ON RAJYA SABHA SEATS, MODI COURTS NAVEEN PATNAIK
Prime Minister Narendra Modi showed gushing praise for Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik in Parliament for setting an example of cooperative federalism. PM lauded CM Patnaik’s efforts to initiate reforms and implement central schemes as well as the attempt to reform the mining sector. This is not the first time that the PM has appreciated CM Patnaik. The speculation is rife that Modi needs the BJD’s support in Rajya Sabha where the NDA lacks number. (IPA Service)