THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: An utterly demoralised front led by a party that has been blighted by a crisis of identity. That is the fate which has befallen the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) still smarting under the local body poll debacle.
The defeat is being attributed, mainly, to the virulent groupism which has been the bane of the Congress which leads the UDF. The other contributor to the electoral loss is the forging of an understanding with communal parties like the Welfare Party of India (WFI), the political wing of the Jamaat-e-Islami. The Congress’s understanding with the WFI and its surrender to the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), the second most powerful constituent of the UDF, caused a shift in loyalties of the UDF’s traditional Christian voters to the CPI-M led Left Democratic Front (LDF). The Christian community is also unhappy with the cornering of 80 per cent of the central funds meant for minority welfare in Kerala. The Church leaders are also upset by the IUML’s opposition to the 10 per cent reservation for economically backward people in forward communities.
Stunned by the desertion of Christian voters, the UDF has embarked upon a fence-mending mission with the estranged community. IUML national general secretary P K Kunhalikutty set the ball rolling by meeting Christian leaders, of course, with an eye on the crucial assembly elections due in May. But the IUML strongman’s mission was anything but successful, given the resentment of the Christian community over the IUML’s domination of the UDF ‘.
Not to be left behind, Congress leaders have also initiated meetings with Christian church leaders to woo the community back to the UDF fold. The Congress has also launched a “Kerala Yatra’, which will be led by Leader of the Opposition, Ramesh Chennithala. It is not clear whether other senior Congress leaders like former chief minister Oommen Chandy and Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) president, Mullappally Ramachandran will accompany Ramesh throughout the yatra or whether they will join him only at selected destinations.
Be that as it may, one thing is clear for sure. The estranged Christian community will not be mollified by mere courtesy calls by the UDF leaders. The Christian voters are unlikely to return to the UDF camp unless and until the Congress summons the courage to stop the back-seat driving by the IUML. Will the Congress leaders muster the courage to do that? That is the million dollar question. The past record is anything but inspiring.
The UDF lost its traditional stronghold of central Kerala when Kerala Congress(M) Jose faction joined the LDF. The latter made substantial gains in the central Kerala districts in the local body elections thanks to the entry of Jose faction. Jose K Mani has resigned his Rajya Sabha seat because he won it with the support of the Congress. In other words, the break with the UDF is final. Jose is on record that he can never return to the UDF which ill-treated his father late KM Mani, one of the founders of the UDF.
In a development that must worry the Congress, the IUML has decided to demand more seats to contest the assembly elections. The party is keen to make its presence felt beyond its bastion of Malappuram district. The IUML leaders are on record that the party has every right to contest more seats in view of its influence and the impressive performance it put up in the local body elections. Reports have it that the IUML is likely to demand around 35 seats as against the 24 it contested in the last assembly poll. The party’s objective is clear. It wants to win more seats which will increase its bargaining power. Another sign of the IUML’s ‘hidden agenda’ is the decision of Kunhalikutty, MP, to return to state politics. He wants to devote full time to strengthen the IUML in the State and position himself as one of the candidates for the Chief Minister’s post in case the party wins more seats than the Congress – a possibility that cannot be ruled out altogether.
In glaring contrast to the sense of optimism exuded by the IUML, the Congress is down in the dumps, weakened by the poll defeat and the continuing faction feud in the party. True, the Congress High Command has frowned upon groupism, and announced that candidates for the assembly elections will not be selected on group basis. Merit and win ability alone will be the sole criterion. But it is easier said than done considering the vice-like grip the two dominant groups in the party, the A group led by Oommen Chandy and the I group headed by Ramesh Chennithala have on the party.
In an obvious effort to ensure unity among the top party leaders, the High Command has decided that Chennithala and Chandy will jointly lead the party! The allies of Congress like the IUML and the RSP have also favoured Oommen Chandy playing a more active role in the days ahead. This has not been the liking of the I group led by Chennithala, although he has not voiced his reservations openly. But Ramesh has asserted himself by deciding to lead the Kerala Yatra’! The message to one and all is loud and clear: Do not count me out in the race for the CM’s post should the UDF win the assembly elections! The UDF’s refusal to name the leader who will become the CM is sending a negative message to the voters. It will only strengthen the perception that the UDF is not united on the choice of its leader. This is in glaring contrast to the situation obtaining in the LDF. There is n o doubt that if the LDF retains power, Pinarayi Vijayan will be the Chief Minister.
The Congress is also bedeviled by a crisis of identity. The party’s understanding with the Welfare Party in the local body polls was one of the reasons for its defeat. The ‘alliance’ badly dented the secular image of the Congress though it succeeded in winning a few seats in the Malabar region than ks to the local level adjustments with the Welfare Party. In a relief to the Congress rank and file, the KPCC chief has declared that there will be no tie-up with the Welfare Party in the assembly polls.
On its part, the Welfare party has also decided not to have any understanding with the Congress for the assembly elections. WPI chief also embarrassed KPCC chief Mullappally Ramachandran by saying that it was Mullappally who initiated the talks for adjustments with WPI though he later retracted from that position. The revelation by the WPI chief has caused red faces in the Congress and bared the division in the party over an understanding with the WPI in the assembly elections.
In conclusion, it must be said that the UDF has a daunting task ahead. Its success in the assembly elections depends on putting up a united show. The mission to wrest power also depends crucially on the return of the Christian voters to the UDF camp. That is a remote possibility. The outlook is anything but rosy for the UDF. (IPA Service)