By Ashok Nilakantan Ayers
NEW YORK: When Donald J. Trump placed his hand on the Bible on January 20, 2025, it was not merely the inauguration of a second-term president. It was a hostile takeover of the American state by a man who believed—more than ever—that power existed to be wielded, not restrained.
Trump’s return to the White House after his 2024 victory marked the beginning of one of the most turbulent years in modern American—and global—history. For India and the wider world, 2025 was not just another year of American politics. It was the year Washington became unpredictable again, transactional to the extreme, and increasingly at war with itself.
Trump’s 2024 victory stunned liberal America and unnerved allies abroad. He returned not as a consensus leader but as a vindicated disruptor, convinced that institutions—from courts to the Federal Reserve—had conspired against him.
His inaugural address was a declaration of combat. He spoke of “internal enemies,” “economic traitors,” and a “rigged global order.” Markets dipped. Diplomats took notes. In New Delhi, policymakers quietly dusted off old Trump playbooks.
India remembered Trump well: warm personal chemistry with Narendra Modi, but brutal pressure on trade, visas, and tariffs. Trump 2.0 promised more of the same—only louder. Within weeks, Trump resumed his favourite instrument of statecraft: trade as punishment and reward.
Tariffs were threatened against China, Europe, Mexico—and occasionally India. Trump revived complaints about Indian tariffs, digital taxes, and pharmaceutical pricing. H-1B visa restrictions reappeared on the agenda, worrying India’s tech sector even as strategic defence cooperation continued.
For India, the contradiction was familiar but sharper: strategic warmth, economic hostility. New Delhi responded with studied calm. Modi’s government leaned into defence ties, QUAD cooperation, and shared concerns about China, while quietly absorbing the shocks from Trump’s mercurial trade diplomacy.
Trump’s most destabilising battle in 2025 was not foreign—it was institutional. His open war with the U.S. Federal Reserve shook global finance. Attacking Fed Chair Jerome Powell for keeping rates high, Trump accused the central bank of sabotaging American growth. He floated curbs on Fed independence, triggering panic across markets.
For India, this was not academic. Fed policy drives global capital flows. As Trump rattled the Fed, emerging markets—including India—faced volatility in currency, capital inflows, and bond yields. The Reserve Bank of India found itself firefighting global turbulence generated not by war or recession, but by presidential rage.
Mid-2025 brought scandal roaring back into American politics with renewed revelations linked to Jeffrey Epstein. Court documents and investigative leaks reopened questions about Epstein’s elite networks. Trump dismissed the controversy as a “Democrat witch-hunt,” but the damage was real. Suburban voters recoiled. Late-night television feasted. Social media exploded.
For the rest of the world—including India—the Epstein saga reinforced a troubling image: a United States distracted by scandal while wielding enormous power abroad.
Washington looked less like a moral compass and more like a reality show with nuclear codes. Nothing captured America’s fragility in 2025 more starkly than the two assassination attempts on Trump.
The first, during a public appearance, froze the nation. The second, thwarted in advance, intensified fears of political violence spiralling out of control. Trump emerged defiant, portraying himself as a hunted man standing against shadowy enemies. Security tightened. Rhetoric escalated. America crossed a psychological threshold: political violence was no longer unthinkable—it was imminent.
India, which has long lived with high-threat political environments, watched with grim recognition. The world’s oldest democracy now resembled a fragile one. Trump’s foreign policy in 2025 was less diplomacy than confrontation.
He designated major Latin American drug cartels as terrorist organisations, authorising expanded intelligence and covert operations. Mexico protested publicly, cooperated privately. The message was unmistakable: borders would not restrain American power.
Venezuela returned to Washington’s crosshairs as Trump tightened sanctions and threatened secondary penalties on countries trading with Caracas. Oil markets shuddered—something India, a major energy importer, could not ignore.
Nigeria, meanwhile, became entangled in Trump’s anti-narcotics and migration agenda, with trade threats and aid reviews escalating diplomatic tension.
For India, these moves mattered because instability elsewhere reshapes energy prices, shipping lanes, and geopolitical alignments. Trump’s America was exporting uncertainty.
Trump’s approval ratings in 2025 resembled a heart monitor—spiking after bold moves, dipping amid scandal and economic anxiety. His base remained unshakably loyal. Independents wavered. Institutions strained. Courts clashed with the executive. Congress oscillated between paralysis and performative outrage. America was not merely polarised; it was bifurcated into rival realities.
New Delhi’s response to Trump 2.0 was pragmatic, not emotional. India deepened defence cooperation, accelerated indigenous manufacturing, diversified energy sources, and hedged diplomatically. It neither antagonised Trump nor depended on him.
The lesson of 2025 was clear to Indian strategists: America remains indispensable—but no longer predictable. As 2025 ended, one truth stood out. Trump’s return did not restore American dominance—it redefined it. Power was loud, personal, transactional, and volatile. Allies adapted. Rivals exploited gaps. Markets priced in chaos.
For India and the world, 2025 was not just the year Trump came back. It was the year the United States reminded everyone that when America sneezes, the world doesn’t just catch a cold—it braces for impact. (IPA Service)
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