By Harihar Swarup
For past 25 years, Rajasthan has oscillated between Ashok Gehlot and Vasundhara Raje. They are the most recognizable faces of their respective parties Congress and the BJP in the state, and are known to guard their turf zealously, even at the cost of defying their central leaderships. And now, both have rivals—younger leaders within their parties.
As the state moves towards assembly elections later in the year, it will be a career–defining phrase for the two veterans. With the incumbent government voted out in each election in the past few decades, the focus has shifted to the BJP camp.
The ongoing Rajasthan Assembly session has been an eventful one, while Chief Minister Gehlot unveiled a populist budget ahead of elections, veteran Gulab Chand Kateria , leader of the opposition in the assembly, was appointed Assam Governor. Kateria, eight-time MLA and Raje’s rival was backed by the RSS as a contestant for the chief minister’s post. As the 89-year- old enters the category of veterans who got promotion to gubernator post, it opens up space for change in the BJP’s local politics. This also means that several veterans might miss out on a ticket this time.
Kateria’s transfer draws from the BJP’s experiment in other states to bring about a gubernatorial change in states. The recent example is Gujarat, where former chief minister Anandiben Patel was made governor of Madhya Pradesh and former chief minister Vijay Rupani and his deputy Nitin Patel pulled out of the 2022 state election race.
But Rajasthan is slightly different. Raje is no pushover and has a proven track record of wins — 2003 and 2013. Her supporters back her for a third try.
Ever since the BJP lost the 2018 state elections, the party’s central leadership has been pushing for new leaders. But as the BJP has lost most of bye polls since, Raje, who is now 70, is making a comeback on the party’s official campaign material. She has also been holding meetings across the state to keep in touch with the voters.
The BJP, in all likelihood, will contest the elections without declaring a chief ministerial candidate. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, will, as usual, be the prominent face. As the elections are being held along with those in Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh, a few months ahead of 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the results will be key. And Modi’s main message to voters is that they will benefit more from double—engine government.
“The issue of deciding on the chief ministerial face will be taken by the party’s parliamentary board at the appropriate time”, said state BJP spokesman Abhishek Singh.
Among the main contenders for the post are Union Jal Shakti Minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, state BJP president Satish Poonia, apart from Raje.
“Though the state has a history of electing a new government every election, the party also has challenges,” said a senior BJP leader. “Despite bickering within in the Congress, it can pose challenge. The BJP has to chart out a clear strategy that does not confuse the voters.”
Rajasthan is important for the BJP, particularly for Modi’s campaign as it gave the NDA all 25 seats in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Modi has made four trips to the state in the past four months to shore up the party’s chances among various communities. Notably, he picked Dausa—part of Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra and Sachin Pilot’s stronghold — to launch the first stretch of the Delhi—Mumbai expressway. He also went to Bhiwara to participate in the 1,111th anniversary of Bhagwan Devnarayan revered by Gujars, who make up more than 10 per of the state’s population. They had voted for the Congress in the last elections, hoping that Pilot would become chief minister.
The two recent appointees to the top constitutional posts in the country—President Droupadi Murmu and vice-president Jagdeep Dhankar—as a jat leader from Rajasthan, might get support from that community, who constitute nearly 14 per cent of population, are likely to be wooed in Murmu’s name. Rajputs make up 8 per cent of the population.
Home minister Amit Shah and BJP president J P Nadda, have been insisting that the party units be more agile and engage with the people. They has a special bond with Rajasthan—daughter-in-laws of both belong to the state.
The biggest advantage for the BJP is the factional fighting in the Congress and anti-incumbency. And one key issue it has been handed on a platter is the series of exams paper leaks in the state. There have been eight such instances, and even Sachin Pilot has hit out at the government on this issue.
“The government has failed on two key fronts: law and order, and paper leaks. The issue of paper leaks is linked to employment and youth. These will be election issues”.
As the polls draw closer, the focus within the BJP will be on ticket distribution. How that process goes might decide which chief minister hopeful gets how many supporters in the fray. These supporters would be crucial when a chief minister is picked, if the BJP gets majority. And so, before the BJP goes to polls, it has to set its own house in order and craft a clear message for the voters. (IPA Service)
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