Aditya Aamir
Evening of
December 7, post-5 pm, BJP stood for ‘Bhag Ja Party’, with most of the exit
polls predicting a hammering at the hustings. There were glum BJP faces and
put-up brave BJP faces on television. At 11 pm, when the anchors signed off for
the night, those faces heaved a sigh and left to mourn in private, maybe pray
that December 11 lays low the exit polls and delivers to the juggernaut what it
set out to do in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. As far as
Telangana and Mizoram go there wasn’t even a prayer left, according to the
pollsters.
BJP
supporters crammed internet chat rooms and battled with euphoric Congress
backers. The heartburn showed and every once in a while there was a ‘burnol’
taunt thrown at a bhakt. The only panacea left was to believe in the belief
that exit polls are not to be believed! That they are fallible and not every
number is a finite! That said, pollsters have over the years perfected their
art into a science and are getting closer to actual numbers. Also, political
parties do tend to wear shaking boots the day of exit polls.
Back to
December 7, the Congress was being cited as the ‘Comeback Kid’ with projected
victories not just in Rajasthan, where it was anyway expected to win, but also
in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, two states where anti-incumbencies are
three times the weight of that in Rajasthan. At the end of the day, it was
difficult to believe which pollster got the number right, there were so many of
them. But, on the day when there were no real prizes to be handed out, the
virtual prizes went to the Congress.
In all three
states – MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan – it is a straight contest between the
BJP and the Congress though in Chhattisgarh, Ajit Jogi could very well be the
one with the spanner! Three-time Chief Minister Raman Singh appeared relieved
that at least one exit poll, Times Now-CNX, gave him a clear lead. He thanked
Times Now for the “trust” and reiterated that the BJP tally would be closer to
“60 seats, maybe over 60”. If anybody believed him, that person did not speak
up. Axis-India Today dumped him in the river to sink without a trace.
Madhya
Pradesh looked like, according to the exit polls, to go to the wire; with quite
a few of the pollsters taking the state away from the unwilling hands of
three-time Chief Minister Shivraj Chauhan whose face is so familiar to the
electorate, they would rather see a fresh one, maybe that of Kamal Nath or the younger
glossier one of Jyotiraditya Scindia. If on December 11, the Congress romps
home with the winning score, expect the two to fight it out for the CM’s post
though it will be Congress President Rahul Gandhi who will have the last word,
and name!
That brings
us to the all-important question, “Who wins, Rahul Gandhi or Prime Minister
Narendra Modi?” The exit polls are leaning towards Rahul. Even if one state out
of the three lands in Rahul’s kurta pocket, he’ll be victor. That one state,
looks like, is Rajasthan, where only a tsunami can prevent a Congress victory
and Rajasthan is landlocked! It’s BJP’s arrogance that it didn’t dump the
completely out-of-favour with the people Vasundhararaje Scindia. December 7,
Raje sat cross-legged on a Khaat (cot) and ate lunch saying in between
mouthfuls the BJP will win!
Think of
living in a bubble! The sort children blow through pipe-stems. There’s talk
that Modi’s final rallies will pull the BJP through but that is more bubbles
and bubbles burst, you know? In the Gujarat elections, Modi pulled off victory
and Rahul got a “moral victory”, but that was one state. This time there were
three-plus-two; too much ground to cover for even Modi-the-indefatigable. In
between he also had to go to G20 to stand in row for a pix!
And, now, it
looks or rather it’s being asked whether this was the last time Modi will be at
a G20? If December 11 apes December 7, it looks glum for the BJP and Modi in
2019. Unless tectonic “extraditions” happen – that of Vijay Mallya and the
possibility of Nirav Modi and Mehul Choksi – and people vote differently for
the Lok Sabha than they voted for these assemblies, at least the majority of
them. But Rahul Gandhi has got the mojo right now; that is for sure. How the
times have changed in so less a time! Extraordinary.
The post So, who’s got the Mojo, Rahul or Modi? appeared first on Newspack by India Press Agency.
