By Sagarneel Sinha
Since the induction of Priyanka Gandhi, who resembles
her grandmother and former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, into the battle of
Uttar Pradesh officially as the Congress general secretary, the grand old party
has been in a jubilant mood. Priyanka’s entry to the party was never doubted;
rather it was an expected decision. Only the time was not known.
Uttar Pradesh, which sends 80 MPs to the Lok Sabha,
was once the stronghold of Congress during its heydays. But the Kamandal-Mandal
politics during the 90s weakened the party, giving rise to Samajwadi Party, BSP
and the BJP. SP and BSP took away the large chunk of Dalits and OBCs while the
BJP took the majority of Brahmins from the Congress.
Congress has been working hard to revive itself in
Uttar Pradesh but was never successful, except in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls
where the party stood second by garnering 21 seats. Congress president Rahul
Gandhi, who was then the party general secretary, campaigned for the party in
UP and was credited for the success. Buoyed by the good performance, Congress
led by Rahul Gandhi campaigned in 2012 Uttar Pradesh elections, where the party
performed poorly getting the fourth position. In 2014 Lok Sabha elections,
Congress managed to win only the traditional party boroughs — Amethi and
Raebareli — and in the 2017 state elections, the party allied with the
Samajwadi party, when Rahul Gandhi was seen with SP’s Akhilesh Yadav. The
alliance was viewed by many as the barrier against Narendra Modi-Amit Shah
combine. However, when the results were out, the alliance was routed badly,
with the Congress reducing to single digit — only 8 seats. Akhilesh Yadav has
since been ignoring the shadow of the grand old party.
Recently, BSP and SP announced they would contest the
elections by giving the Congress its two family seats — Amethi and Raebareli.
Congress was demanding more seats; however, SP and BSP were reluctant to give
more than two. Congress, left with no options, decided to fight all the 80
seats independently and launched Priyanka Gandhi as the general secretary for
the east zone of the state. The party divided the state into two zones and
Jyotiraditya Scindia was given charge of the west zone. However, it was
Priyanka who managed to dominate the political discussions. So, will the
Priyanka card help the Congress to restore its glory in UP?
First of all, after the entry of Priyanka, Congress
has tried to send a strong signal among its supporters that it is serious about
reviving the lost glory. Not only this, Congress has fielded Priyanka in the
east zone where Varanasi and Gorakhpur constituencies come under. Varanasi is
the parliamentary seat of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Gorakhpur the home
constituency of Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath. The message of
Rahul Gandhi to the party supporters is: Congress, not the SP-BSP alliance,
will be the main challenger against Modi-led BJP. It is to be mentioned that,
apart from BJP, in East Uttar Pradesh, Samajwadi Party also has a lot in stake.
So, Priyanka’s campaign has the probability to affect SP’s chances, which may only
help the BJP.
Undoubtedly, the Congress supporters are excited with
Priyanka’s entry, but it may be too early to arrive into a conclusion that this
strategy will help the party against BJP. Many think that Congress contesting
alone will gain a section of Brahmins, the core vote bank of the BJP, thus
helping the SP-BSP alliance by cutting BJP’s core upper caste votes. With
Priyanka’s entry, even the Congress is hopeful to get a chunk of Brahmin votes,
which account 10% of state’s population, who were earlier with them.
Clearly, the upper castes were unhappy with the BJP
but after the Modi government’s master stroke this year to grant 10%
reservation to the upper castes, the Congress dream of pulling a chunk of the
upper castes to damage BJP’s prospects may not see the daylight. However,
Congress will be successful in pulling a section of the Muslim votes, who
account for 19% of the state’s population and this will damage the SP-BSP
alliance. That’s why neither Mayawati nor Akhilesh Yadav has yet congratulated
Priyanka’s official political entry, which has become the focal point of the
most political discussions.
In the last state elections of 2017, Mayawati-led BSP,
which was banking on 21% Dalit plus 19% Muslim votes, gave 100 seats to the
Muslim community — the highest representation by any party then. Mayawati even
appealed the Muslims to vote for BSP. However, much to her dismay, the majority
of Muslims went towards the SP-Congress alliance. Muslims have been the vote
bank of SP in the state and their inclination towards the Congress party is
also well-known. Muslims are still skeptical about Mayawati’s political moves
after the Lok Sabha polls due to her past association with the BSP. But still,
Muslims would have voted for the alliance to express their support for the SP
considering to defeat the BJP.
However, with Priyanka’s entry and this being a
national election, a section of Muslims will see the party as a strong option
against the BJP. Especially, the section of Muslim voters who were earlier
hesitating to vote for Mayawati’s BSP will now find it easy to shift towards
the grand old party. Ultimately, this will divide the Muslim votes. SP-BSP
alliance along with Ajit Singh’s RLD is hoping to defeat the BJP with their
combined vote share, which is larger than the saffron party’s. Muslim votes are
the key for the SP-BSP alliance and they cannot afford to lose this critical
vote bank. The alliance will definitely try all the way to lure them especially
to prevent the Muslims to vote for the Congress party. This will provide BJP
the opportunity to polarise the majority Hindu community, which will prevent
the upper castes to shift towards the Congress. Not only this, there are less
chances of a massive decrease in BJP’s vote share — which more or less will
remain the same.
Actually, Congress, which itself has no chance of
winning outside Amethi and Raebareli, may only end up helping the BJP at the
expense of SP-BSP-RLD alliance by dividing the Muslim votes and gaining no
prominent Brahmin support. So, there are high chances that Congress’ Priyanka
gamble, which had already antagonised SP and BSP — its likely partners in the
Centre — instead of benefitting, may only end to harm the grand old party. (IPA Service)
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