By Dr. Gyan Pathak
With sudden announcement by Sharad Pawar to step down from Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) presidency may have surprised all, but it seems that his announcement was premeditated. He will be quitting as NCP chief, but will remain in politics at least for the next three years, during which he would guide the transition of NCP on to greener shoulders, through a committee he would recommend. He is 82 years in age, and party is in urgent need to have younger leadership. However, everyone wants to know what will happen to NCP and Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) after Sharad Pawar?
The answer to this question is not easy. However, there are four distinct possibilities – NCP would continue to run smoothly under a new president; the party would undergo an existential crisis; revolts and exoduses become rampant; and new challenges may bring political instability within the party and its alliance MVA. However, all will depend chiefly on how the transition from old guard to new ones takes place and how the immediate crisis evolved after the announcement of his quitting as NCP chief is resolved. Moreover, fate of any political party depends on many factors including leadership, ideology, alliances and the last but not the least, the public perceptions.
The public perception right now in Maharashtra, especially in the areas of NCP’s support base, is that the party is plagued with infighting. People believe, and it is true to certain extent, that Sharad Pawar’s nephew Ajit Pawar is trying to place himself in leading role after his uncle. Many political analysts believe that Sharad Pawar has announced his decision of stepping down to show his nephew his right place. They believe that Sharad Pawar has shown that he is still firmly holding the reigns of the party. Party rank and file have become emotional over his decision and asking him not to step down, and he has asked for two-three days to rethink over his decision.
However, with maturity of a political leader like himself, it is most unlikely that he has announced his decision to quit as NCP chief, the party he has formed in 1999 after a split from the Indian National Congress, merely to show his strength within the party out of frustration from infighting. He is still a glue for all rival factions within the NCP and its alliance MVA.
What he said during the launch of the second edition of his autobiography, Lok Majhe Sangati, on May 2, where he announced his decision to quit in presence of his wife Pratibha, daughter Supriya Sule, nephew Ajit Pawar, and senior party leaders, is worth noting.
“Since the formation of the NCP in 1999, I have had the privilege of being elected as its president… This journey of being in public life, which began on May 1, 1960, has continued unabated for the past 63 years, having served Maharashtra and India in various capacities… I have three years left of Rajya Sabha membership, during which I will focus on issues related to Maharashtra and India, with a caveat of not taking any responsibility. After a long period of public life… it is necessary to take a step back. Hence, I have decided to step down as president of the NCP,” Pawar said. “It is time for a new generation to guide the party and the direction it intends to take. I am recommending that a committee on NCP members should be formed to decide on the election to the president’s post.”
Election of the new president would, however, prove to a problematic issue since there are at least four potential candidates –Ajit Pawar, Jayant Patil, Praful Patel, and Supriya Sule. Shard Pawar’s recommended committee would decide on the new president.
Even as emotions ran high among top leaders of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) who joined the chorus of workers appealing to party president Sharad Pawar to rethink over his decision, his nephew and senior party leader Ajit Pawar emerged as the man-in-charge. He supported his uncle’s decision. Here lies the actual problem of electing a new president unanimously, since others are not comfortable with Ajit Pawar’s antics.
If this problem is not resolved, the NCP may face an existential crisis. The chief architect of NCP Sharad Pawar is still the axis around which the party revolves. His charisma still works within the party, and therefore he would be able to delay the existential crisis arising out of any threat of revolt in the party. However, if transition is marred with infighting, NCP without Sharad Pawar may struggle to maintain its relevance in the state or national politics.
In case of revolts and exoduses of leaders and workers in and from NCP when new president takes charge, the party would be in great trouble. Then who will be benefited by such exodus? Obviously the Congress, since most of the party rank and file would like to return to INC from where they came out in 1999 to form NCP. Large scale exodus to BJP or Shinde group will not occur in rural Maharashtra, which is evident from their recent loss in APMCs elections. In case of exodus, NCP’s organisational strength may greatly suffer along with its electoral prospects.
In case of leadership vacuum, or a new president who is not acceptable for all warring factions within party, NCP would face greater challenges on account of its political rivals and allies. BJP and Shinde alliance would like to fuel discordance within the party, or even split in their own favour. Defection may then become a real threat. NCP is presently part of MVA and Congress and Uddhav Thackeray group are glued to Sharad Pawar as party chief. In absence of Sharad Pawar as party chief, the MVA partners may feel uncomfortable with new leadership. Stability within NCP and MVA would become uncertain.
We cannot imagine that Sharad Pawar is unaware of these possible outcomes. His assurance of rethinking over his decision of stepping down suggests this. He would remain in politics until 2026 when his Rajya Sabha membership would end. He would continue to guide and remain mentor to his party NCP and ally MVA, even though he sticks to his decision to quit as NCP chief. Surprises and uncertainties lie ahead. (IPA Service)
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