By K Raveendran
For a change, Modi has conceded to the demand from various quarters, including Congress, to expand the vaccination programme to the massive 18-plus age group. But the plan could turn out to be another Utopian idea, just like Modi’s ill-fated demonetisation, half-baked implementation of the GST regime as well as the ill-timed national lockdown in the early part of Covid outbreak. Demonetisation ended up achieving exactly the opposite of what it was intended to do, the new GST system, rather than helping to raise tax revenue, saw the proceeds decline as small businesses were hit hard by procedural bottlenecks, while the premature national lockdown trapped all the negative factors permanently in the economy and the lives of the people.
The abrupt, ill-prepared plan to extend coverage of the vaccination has the potential to become the mother of all scams as the so-called ‘deregulation of the vaccine supply could lead to myriad problems of demand-supply mismatch, profiteering, skyrocketing prices and above all the entry of spurious vaccine into the system, not only posing danger to the lives of those of the recipients, but jeopardising the vaccination drive as a whole, which is so vital in the fight of the disease as the virus mutate into more dangerous and life-threatening strains.
The decision to extend coverage has come too soon for the Modi government to have weighed in all the relevant factors. The country has not achieved only less than 10 percent coverage so far, and already the system is at a break-down point. Modi’s ‘much-vaunted ‘TikaUtsav’ has, In fact, turned into a festival of disorder, with vaccination centres almost permanently putting up no-vaccine notices. With the second jab having become due for those who received the first dose, unruly mobs fighting among themselves and with the security guards and police for vaccination, ignoring all norms of social distancing and civil sense, has become a regular scene on television channels. A large number of new cases would have added just by such indiscretion. The system has just failed to cope up.
No one doubts the integrity of the government in announcing the extension of the vaccination programme to the biggest possible segment of the population, but most crucial point is: where are the vaccines? The May 1 launch has been announced, but there is no word yet on how the supply will be organised. All that we have on record are pious intentions, but that is not good enough. Each dose has to be planned in terms of logistics, supply, quality and the final act of administration. There is too much of uncertainty on every part of the operation.
According to government statistics, a little over 12 crore doses have been administered as the programme enters the second-dose stage of the first two phases in which frontline workers as well as those above 60 were vaccinated. Extension of vaccination to the 45-plus age group means, according to census figures, that less than 20 percent of all population would have been covered. Census estimates put the percentage of people below 18 years of age as around 41, which means that around 40 percent of the population will have to be covered in the 18-plus vaccination phase, after adjusting for about 20 percent, constituted by those above 45 years, a majority of whom has not yet completed even the first dose of vaccination. Rough estimates put the figure at 90 crore and two doses would mean a minimum of 180 crore doses. This is in contrast to 12 crore or so that we have achieved so far.
The government has announced plans to boost output at Serum Institute and Bharat Biotech, but these two together can meet the requirement only partially even after the expansion of production capacities. The government expects private players to take care of the gap, by way of imports or through direct procurement from the factories. This is what opens the floodgates for abuse and all questionable practices.
Considering the Indian ingenuity of ‘jugad’ solutions, already clandestine factories may have come up producing spurious vaccine that might ultimately end up with the official supplies. With no effective control in place to authenticate each dose, this poses grave danger to the vaccination programme and by implication to the nation’s health priorities.
The government may have found a convenient way to leave things to market forces to determine demand-supply, pricing and other aspects of production, but it has not come up with any tangible mechanism against abuse, which makes it a most fertile ground for scams.
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