The
massive rally organized in Kolkata’s Brigade Parade Ground on Saturday by the
West Bengal Chief Minister and Trinamool Congress supremo Mamata Banerjee to
demonstrate the unity of the opposition parties for unseating Prime Minister
Narendra Modi led government in the coming Lok Sabha poll, has set the right
tone to take forward the Mission 2019 of the opposition for making the centre
BJP-mukta after the April/May elections.
Already a four member committee
consisting of senior leaders of four parties- Congress, Samajwadi Partty,
Bahujan Samaj Party and Aam Aadmi Party, have been announced. They are Avisek
Manu Sanghvi, Akhilesh Yadav, Satish Mishra and Arvind Kejriwal.
The
significant pointer from the rally was that its big success did not deviate the
senior leaders of the opposition from the gravity of the present political
situation and the imperative of taking up the tasks seriously for clearing the
way for a broad-based unity of the opposition forces covering both the regional
parties and the Congress. Former Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda was most
realistic when he said that immediate consultations should start at state level
between the opposition parties to put a common candidate against the BJP and
the Congress is very well a major component of the opposition alliance. Mamata
was also clear that the Congress, as the major opposition party, is very much
in the radar of opposition alliance and maximum efforts should be made to see
whether one common candidate of the opposition can be fielded against the BJP.
Significantly,
the messages of both Sonia Gandhi and the Congress President Rahul Gandhi
underlined the importance of the efforts of the West Bengal CM and the need to
make a success of her efforts to build the unity of the anti-BJP parties. It
was clear that the Congress is not prepared to make an issue of projecting
potential Prime Minister before the poll. The Congress also agreed with the
declaration of Mamata that right now, the task is to defeat BJP in the Lok
Sabha poll. The issue of the PM of the new government will be decided later in
the light of the results. Once the BJP and its allies are defeated, the issue
of new PM can very well be decided through consultations between the senior
leaders of the opposition including the Congress.
Right
now, less than three months before the starting of the polling in the country,
the opposition has to start the process of seat sharing in right earnest with
the objective of preventing the division of anti-BJP votes to the maximum
extent possible. The process will be tortuous and time consuming, but still, a
start has to be made without waiting for the announcement of the dates of the
Lok Sabha poll in the first half of March this year by the Election Commission.
Mamata has suggested a formula under which, the largest party of the opposition
in a particular state will be the leader in discussions and rope in the other
opposition smaller parties for a solid anti-BJP combination. The Congress is
the largest party in a number of states including Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan,
Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Punjab, Gujarat, Assam, Odisha and some north eastern
states. Naturally, the Congress will have to take leading role in these states
to form a perfect combination of opposition parties to take on BJP and its
allies.
But
t he opposition alliance may not be that all pervasive taking into account the
positioning of the regional parties in the states. The senior leaders of the
opposition have to be reconciled to this reality that the alliance may not be possible
in some states before the polls but after polls, in the event of a hung Lok
Sabha, all these opposition parties who fought against each other in the Lok
Sabha poll, will unite against the BJP by extending support to a non-BJP
government. For instance, in Punjab, the Congress has emerged as the major
electoral power and it is planning to contest in all 13 seats. The Aam Aadmi
Party is also planning to contest in all 13 seats and there may not be an
alliance between these two parties though both are committed against the BJP.
The same thing may happen in Delhi. But the senior leaders like Mamata and
Chandrababu Naidu should make some efforts to see that in marginal seats, where
the BJP is very strong, efforts are made to bring about some limited adjustments
between the Congress and AAP to defeat the BJP candidates who have the
potential of winning b y taking advantage of the division of anti-BJP votes.
Similar
efforts can be made in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. SP and BSP will be doing a
great service to the anti-BJP unity in the Lok Sabha poll from Uttar Pradesh if
they accommodate the Congress and convert the front into a total one. That will
ensure the crushing of the BJP in UP which is so crucial for the defeat of the
Modi government at the centre. The BSP and SP will seek some reciprocity in MP,
Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. It will be wise for the Congress high command to
think of this alliance with SP and BSP as a total package at a national level.
In
Bihar, RJD is the main party of the opposition and it is essential that both
the Congress and the Left are accommodated by the RJD in the anti-BJP alliance.
The RJD will be right in getting lion’s share taking into account their
strength but the total combination with the Congress and the CPI and CPI(ML)
will be a solid one and it will impart ideological strength to the alliance.
CPI has good strength in at least five Lok Sabha seats in Bihar and the Party
has a case to get minimum two Lok Sabha seats including one from Begusarai for
the student leader Kanhaiya Kumar who is sure to win with handsome margin if
nominated.
The
moot question is that the opposition parties, especially the bigger parties
like the Congress, SP, BSP and the RJD have to show maturity and put national
interests against only party interests. . Even if the opposition parties
succeed in putting up one common candidate against the BJP and its allies in
400 Lok Sabha seats out of the total of 543, that will be a great success. The
opposition has to keep in mind that the BJP’s new Lok Sabha seats must come down below 150 in order to keep it
away from occupying the seat of PM after May 2019 poll. If it crosses this
figure and emerge as the single largest party, the Sangh Parivar will make all
efforts to buy up the fence sitter parties through their massive financial
resources. That situation can be avoided by the opposition only trough a mature
handling of the seat sharing negotiations with a national perspective. (IPA Service)
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