By Ashis Biswas
Never before in Bengal’s recent history, state-wide civic elections had become politically as consequential as the present round of polls now being held. On February 12 and February 27. Intriguingly, the probable outcome of these elections, a clean sweep for the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC), could well be no more than a minor footnote in the post-poll scenario. The contours of present political alignments in Bengal are changing and the new emerging trends do not bring cheers for the TMC.
No wonder there are worried faces among senior TMC leaders, even if some are already crowing over their success well ahead of the expected outcome.
After a decade of unchallenged TMC rule in Bengal, there are first signs that party supremo Mamata Banerjee faces the danger of a split within the ranks. There are strong indications that already, her wishes among her followers no longer count as her royal command any longer.
As of now, there are two broad divisions within the TMC: Originally there was — and is — the incumbent loyalist camp of Mamata Banerjee followers like Partha Chatterjee, Firhad Hakim, Arup Biswas, Subrata Baxi and others.
But now, there are new pro-change followers of Mr Abhishek Banerjee, Diamond Harbour Lok Sabha MP and General secretary of the TMC, the nephew of Ms Banerjee. Among them are Saugata Ray, Madan Mitra, Anubrata Mondal, young Debansgshu Bhattacharya and others. However Mitra and Mondal are also known fence sitters who bend as the blowing winds dictate.
They are in effect the new challengers to the throne. In hiring the expensive poll-winning expertise offered by psephologist/poll consultant Mr Prashant Kishor aka PK and his IPAC team for the TMC, Mr. Banerjee had played the decisive role.
The move succeeded beyond expectations. The TMC using valuable IPAC inputs not only beat back the strong BJP challenge to its supremacy in the 2021 assembly polls, it also decimated the BJP state unit’s political base .
It is not surprising that following the TMC’s resounding victory in the Assembly elections in 2021, Mr Banerjee’s stock rose higher than ever. Naturally services of the IPAC were retained by the TMC for the Kolkata Corporation polls and the state civic elections as well.
The IPAC, as hinted by veteran TMC MP Mr. Saugata Ray, preferred to project new , better educated youths as party candidate for the polls for Kolkata Corporation and the remaining 108 civic bodies (excluding Howrah) in the state. The reason: there would be no allegations of corruption or criminal activities against the newcomers . The anti-incumbency factor would be marginalised in the process.
But this approach upset the calculations of the deep-rooted local TMC leadership and hierarchies in most places. Some of his other proposals only added to their gloom.
Mr. Banerjee spoke of the need for (a) practising politicians to retire after a certain age;(b) to introduce the one- man- in- one -post formula ; and (c)to pave the way for a new generation of younger untainted educated political activists to serve the TMC in the future.
He also pressed for civic elections to be fought as normally as possible, unlike what had happened during the scandalous 2018 Panchayat polls. Interestingly, even hardliners like Mr Anubrata Mondal and Mr. Debangshu Bhattacharya supported him.
They reasoned that the TMC had won 34% of the Panchayat seats in 2018 unopposed, as its lower level leaders and supporters launched a massive terror campaign. But such malpractices also paved the way for the BJP’s major electoral success in Bengal during the 2019 Lok Sabha polls!
Sound as such proposals were, they scared the old loyalists of Mamata Banerjee. As political commentator Biswanath Chakravarty explained at a recent TV chat show, old veterans of civic level politics felt insecure. Worse, there was a widespread practice, thanks to the notorious ’cutmoney’ (bribery) culture propagated by the TMC in Bengal where any aspirant for a government job , for a party nomination or for the admission to a prestigious educational institution, simply had to pay the local TMC boss a few lakhs of rupees before getting the party’s support !
The IPAC/Banerjee formula to present as many new faces as possible in the civic elections was rejected by Mamata Banerjee herself prior to the Kolkata Corporation elections, where older incumbent people were retained as candidates. This naturally rankled with the IPAC/Banerjee team, which retaliated by putting up more promising newcomers for the next round 108 civic body elections. In the process many old names proposed by established local leaders were rejected.
It also led to the reported resignation of Mr. PK himself along with the IPAC in a recent letter to Ms Banerjee, who promptly released him.
Since many aspirants had already paid ‘cutmoney’ to the incumbent local leadership, they were desperate to (a) either win official nomination or (b) to recover their money.
This was the major reason for recent the state-wide unrest and agitations conducted mainly by established TMC leaders and followers against the new set of party leaders!
Alarmingly for the old pro Mamata leadership, inner party support for the new IPAC/Banerjee group is not confined only to the senior levels of decision-making. Even within the lower level TMC organisation, its word is law in some areas.
For instance, the TMC has already emerged as unofficial winners of civic bodies at Dinhata, Budge Budge and Sainthia, as opposition candidates could not file their nominations in time. The reason: TMC’s terror tactics — never mind the formal announcements made by the state Government or the Election Commission.
There is a strong possibility, feel observers that what has happened at Budge Budge might have happened at Sainthia as well because Mr Mondal calls the tune in the area.
As one observer put it, ‘The TMC will certainly sweep the municipal polls in the 108 places, but the main question is which TMC faction will really win? Mamata Banerjee’s candidates have been sidelined in many areas and were not allowed to file nominations or carry out campaigning by TMC’s Abhishek Banerjee loyalists. They have fared no better that candidates put by the Left parties, the Congress or the BJP!’
Does this mean that a split within the TMC is only a question of time?
No. In case the IPAC/Banerjee faction emerge as the bigger group in the ruling TMC- against- the challenger-TMC inner contest, its members would be accommodated seamlessly within the party. The new entrants would be won over by the lure of new posts /power or lucrative assignments.
This is what had happened 2018 as dissident TMC workers, acting as’ independents’ had won 24% of the votes against the TMC’s 40%. They had emerged as the runner up to the TMC, well ahead of the BJP which had won 17% of the votes. The ‘Independents’ had mostly been rehabilitated with honour in the organisation they had rebelled against, won over by lucrative assignments.
There is little doubt that the old formula would be applied to maintain the inner unity and cohesion within the TMC. But the message has reached Mamata that after ten years of her rule as the supremo, she is being ideologically attacked by her own nephew aided by PK who are opting for a new Trinamool. (IPA Service)
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