The most unpredictable President in the history of the United States Donald Trump has done it again. At a time when the world was expecting fierce retaliation by the US missiles after Iran’s attacks on US bases in Qatar in the early hours of Monday, President Donald Trump announced the ceasefire between Israel and Iran from 4 AM GMT of June 24-that is 9-30 AM of Indian time on Tuesday. For the maverick, nothing is acted on what he says. He warned that Iran would be facing its worst consequences if it attacked the U.S. bases, but after that attack, within 24 hours, Trump organized the ceasefire without resorting to any retaliation.
Similarly, after announcing last week that he would be taking a decision within two weeks on whether US will join the war against Iran, he surprised even his top officials by ordering bombing of Iran’s three nuclear facilities on Saturday morning within less than 72 hours of his two week deadline. Trump enjoys keeping both his friends and foes on tenterhooks. A political narcissist to the hilt, he gets big pleasure in finding that the entire global diplomacy moves around him. Europe has become irrelevant. China and Russia also are yet to come anywhere near Trump’s absolute power in deciding on the course of global diplomacy.
The ceasefire has brought a big relief to the people of the world, especially to the residents of Israel and Iran. As of now, the distrust is there and the truce is fragile. But there are compulsions on both sides and also for the third side Trump led US. The course of the Israel -Iran war in the first nine days and then joining of USA in the last three days imparted a dangerous dimension to the war which had the potential to be the biggest bloody war in the West Asia, if not contained. It was a welcome sign that good sense prevailed among all three stake holders in the last 24 hours before ceasefire and more devastations were averted for the time being.
Why did Trump was so determined to organize the ceasefire even after the attacks by Iran on its bases in Qatar on Monday morning? Many US experts are discussing about many theories. My view is that Trump wanted to show to the Americans, especially his aggrieved MAGA supporters that the US has achieved its objective of shattering the three nuclear plants of Iran without costing a single American life. Knowing Iran, any further prolongation would have led to the escalation of war theatre needing the physical presence of the US marines in the war areas. This Trump wanted to avoid and he still liked to project himself as a peacemaker.
Further, Trump came to the conclusion that his friend Netanyahu’s prime objective is to eliminate Iranian power totally and bring about a regime change. Trump would have been happy if this would have happened. But he was getting reports that even supporters of the opposition to Khameini regime are united against Israeli and US action . There was no possibility of any uprising like 1979 which led to the ouster of the Shah of Iran. Trump got lot of intelligence reports which mentioned that Iranian morale is intact and they are in a position to continue this battle despite vicious attacks by both. Trump was not ready to allow a repeat of Afghanistan. He did not want to emerge as a loser. He wants to emerge as a winner who decides the final course of global diplomacy.
What was the political fallout of the 12 day war and what are the lessons? The most important is that the war has become too high tech and missile based. This was evident in the latest 12 day West Asia conflict as also in the four day India-Pakistan limited war which was also witnessed a missile war. This was so different from the Kargil war of 1999 when ground troops were involved. An important feature of such war is that the military equipment and weapons are lost, but human lives loss is minimal. That will be large when the civilian population is attacked in cities, apart from military targets.
All three players United States, Israel and Iran can claim themselves as winners and it is quite likely that each will elaborate on their post war gains. If Trump can persuade Iran to come to the negotiation table for talks on its nuclear programme, that will be a big victory of Trump because Tehran will not be having the same mojo as it has in the fifth round of US-Iran nuclear talks. Netanyahu will tell his Israeli citizens that he took the risk of attacking Iran and persuaded Trump to bomb the three nuclear facilities. Iran is weakened and it is no threat as before.. Further, all these losses he caused to Iran with a minimal death of Israeli citizens, numbered around 24.
For Iran, the issue is to what extent the nuclear facilities have been damaged. If the claim of the Iranian state department that there has been little damage to the facilities as already the equipment and materials were shifted, then this is a big victory for Tehran. The present regime can certainly claim that they have protected the sovereignty of the nation against the attacks by both Israel and the USA. The attack by Iran against US bases in Qatar has boosted its standing among the Arab nations. Iran is not isolated. In the coming days, Iran will play a more important role in West Asia if the peace prevails.
Both China and Russia took strong stand against Israel and USA and extended solidarity to Iran but effectively, the two countries did not give additional assistance, especially high tech weapons. Russian President Vladimir Putin held a meeting with the Iranian foreign minister on Monday and expressed his support. But later when a reporter asked about directly helping Iran in war against Israel, Putin said more than 20 lakh Russian jews live in Israel, he would have to think of them. This Russian jews number is more than one fifth of Israeli population of 95 lakhs.
Similarly, China took strong position through statements and along with Russia issued a joint statement against Israeli aggression. But President Xi Jinping who has built excellent relations with Iran, hesitated in supplying high tech air defence system which Iran badly needed. President XI did not come out with immediate assistance. In any case, ceasefire has now taken place. Iran has fought the battle on its own and came out with flying colours. The world will be waiting for the next step in stabilizing the ceasefire. (IPA Service)
