By Dr. Gyan Pathak
The results of the byelections held in five Assembly seats across the four states indicate that BJP has reasons to be worried, at a time when the party is in desperate need of strengthening itself. These four states where byelections were held are – Gujarat, Kerala, Punjab, and West Bengal. Since the terms of the Legislative Assembly in Kerala is to expire on May 23.2026, West Bengal on May 7,.2026, Punjab on March 16,.2027, and Gujarat on December 19,.2027, the election results have special significance.
Kerala’s Nilambur bypoll was triggered by resignation of CPI(M)-backed independent MLA P V Anvar. This seat is obviously important for the CPI(M). Anvar had won this seat by bagging 46.9 per cent votes. The Congress candidate was runner up and was able to bag 45.34 per cent of votes. The BJP was distant third and polled 4.96 per cent of votes. This seat has thus strategic importance for the three political parties – CPI(M), Congress, and the BJP.
This time CPI(M) had fielded its own candidate M Swaraj who lost the seat by 11,077 votes to Congress candidate Aryadan Shoukath. It is a serious concern for the CPI(M) since the party is leading the ruling coalition of LDF. Congress is upbeat since it has won the seat by bagging 77737 votes as against 66660 votes polled by the CPI(M) candidate.
There has been sharp fall in LDF votes from 81227 polled in 2021, and indication that the ruling LDF is suffering from an anti-establishment sentiment among the voters of Kerala, when the state is likely to go to polls within 11 months from now. PV Anvar himself got 19,760 votes as independent candidate.
Though the votes polled by the Congress candidate also declined from 78527, the fall is comparatively less than the LDF candidate. The result thus indicates a brightened future for the Congress and UDF in the state in the forthcoming Legislative Assembly election.
Kerala is also important for the BJP since it has been trying its best to establish its political foothold in the state. BJP candidate had bagged 8595 votes in 2021 election, but this time it could get 8648 votes only. It means that despite its efforts it could increase its tally by only 53 votes. . BJP’s dream of strengthening itself in the state has been shattered.
Gujarat byelections in two Legislative Assembly constituencies – Visavadar and Kadi – are significant for the BJP, AAP, and Congress. These are most important for the BJP, since the party is ruling the state continuously since 1998, and is the home state of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Out of the two seats BJP lost one to the AAP, indicating that PM Modi’s and BJP’s clout in the state is deteriorating while AAP’s political clout is intact despite the APP leadership has been politically and legally crushed by the Modi government at the centre through central investigating agencies ED and CBI, without trial being commenced.
Let us take first the Visavadar seat, which went to the bypolls after sitting AAP MLA Bhupendra Bhayani joined the ruling BJP. AAP’s candidate Italia Gopal still won the seat by a margin of 17554 votes against the BJP’s candidate Kirit Patel. Votes polled by the AAP candidate is 75942 against BJP’s 58388. It is a significant development, and is more concerning for the BJP since its vote has declined from 59147 it got in 2022assembly election. The additional worry for the BJP is the sharp increase in AAP’s vote that had bagged 66210 votes in the last assembly election. Congress here has bagged only 5501 votes this time as against 16963 votes in the last election, which indicates the decline of the party.
Gujarat’s Kadi Legislative Assembly seat has been won by the BJP by a margin of 39452 votes against Congress candidate. Bypoll on this seat was necessitated after the death of BJP MLA Karshan Solanki. BJP’s candidate Rajendrakumar (Rajubhai) Daneshwar Chavda polled 99742 votes while Congress candidate Rameshbhai Chavda polled 60290 votes. Despite sympathy for the BJP, its votes declined from 107052, but Congress suffered sharper decline from 78858. AAP candidate emerged only distant third and polled only 3090 votes as against 7253 it polled in last election. The general decline in all party votes can be explained by general decline in voting poll percentage. Nevertheless, INDIA block has a lesson to be learnt that if united they can put a stronger fight to BJP even in Gujarat, which is a serious concern for the BJP.
AAP has not only won one seat in Gujarat, even after its sitting MLA switched to BJP, and BJP’s all efforts of breaking the rank and file of the AAP, but also has won the Ludhiana West seat in Punjab. It should be eye opener for those political analysts who have been predicting that AAP will soon be finished as a political party. AAP’s candidate Sanjeev Arora won this seat by a margin of 10637 votes against Congress candidate Bharat Bhushan Ashu. Bypoll on this seat was necessitated after AAP MLA Gurpreet Bassi Gogi’s death.
AAP candidate polled 35179 votes against 24542 votes polled by Congress candidate, indicating that AAP is still ahead of Congress. BJP’s candidate Jiwan Gupta polled 20323 votes only. Compared to 2022 election on this seat, there was general decline of votes for all parties, but Congress’ and BJP’s decline were sharper than AAP’s. In 2022 election, AAP had bagged 40443 votes, Congress 32931, and BJP 28107 votes. It indicates that AAP is stronger in Punjab than any other political party, and hence it’s future is bright in the forthcoming Legislative Assembly election in the state. BJP and Congress has reasons to be concerned about their political future in Punjab. It also applies to Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), which got only 8203 votes this time as against its 10072 votes in 2022.
The last, but not the least, is the bypoll on Kaliganj seat in West Bengal. This seat went for bypolls after the death of TMC MLA Nasiruddin Ahmed. BJP has been trying its best to unseat Mamata Banerjee led TMC from power, which makes this byelection result significant. The TMC candidate won with a margin of more than 50,000 votes higher than the 2021 assembly poll margin. The poll results show that TMC under the chief minister Mamata Banerjee is in command of the politics of the state despite all talks by BJP about removing the government.
While in Kerala, the rural polls are due by the end of this year preceding tge assembly polls in April/May 2026, in West Bengal, there is no other elections before the 2026 assembly polls. So the TMC victory will be of help to the party leadership to step up positive campaign for the assembly polls. (IPA Service)
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