It may be difficult to reconcile that India, a leader of the non-aligned movement (NAM), should get so quickly aligned with the emerging United States-led power block, Quad, to protect itself from a border threat from China. India is canvassing even with select EU members to join the camp against China. Few will disagree that India is in a precarious situation as multiple level dialogues with China are not easing the intensified differences between the two countries. The US is taking the full advantage of the situation to bring India under its fold in a bid to challenge China’s growing geo-political ambition in the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean regions.
For the present, India’s strategic view of China appears to be somewhat close to that of the US. The border tension on the Himalayan heights has prompted India to forge strong diplomatic and military ties with the US although the fact remains that India has to sort out the matter by itself. China is unlikely to tolerate an external interference, leave alone from the US. Many feel that India should step up its diplomatic effort to engage with China to ease the tension. Stronger US-India diplomatic and military ties may further endanger the balance of power in the region. India may be welcome to take its strategic relations with the US and Western powers to the next level, but it must realise that the country has to look after its own security and fight its own wars.
The reasons behind the sudden deterioration in India’s relationships with China are not entirely unknown. The abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A of the constitution in 2019 and making J&K and Ladakh two separate union territories had definitely upset China, especially with regard to Ladakh’s new political status under the direct Delhi rule. The Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir is part of the larger region of Kashmir which has been a subject of dispute since 1947 between India, Pakistan and, partly, China
. However, it is difficult to believe that the constitution amendment and Ladakh’s new political status alone have led to China’s vitriolic outbursts against India’s diplomatic and trade policies. China was thought to be an emerging partner of India after the BJP government came to power at the union level in 2014. Till 2018-19, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his government were rolling out red carpet for Chinese investment. In January 2016, Modi joined China’s President Xi Jinping to make the Beijing-based Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), having over 100 approved members worldwide, operational.
AIIB is billed to invest in sustainable infrastructure and other productive sectors in Asia and beyond. China is AIIB’s largest shareholder with 26.06 percent. India comes second with 7.5 percent, followed by Russia 5.93 percent and Germany 4.5 percent. In the last three years, India emerged as the largest borrower, accounting for 25 percent of AIIB’s total lending. The bidding process helped China become the biggest beneficiary participating in several large projects in India.
Even before Modi became India’s prime minister, Gujarat, under his chief ministership, had wooed China with open arms. The process accelerated after Modi became the prime minister. Modi and Xi created an impression of developing ‘personal chemistry’ during the Chinese president’s first meeting with Prime Minister Modi on the Sabarmati river front. Several delegations from Gujarat visited China for investment. Gujarat’s Mundra Port, operated by the Adani group, signed a ‘sister port’ agreement with the Shanghai Port. Adani Power put up a power plant in Jharkhand’s Godda region under Chinese collaboration. Ahmedabad boasted the largest number of institutes and coaching centres for Chinese Mandarin courses. Modi, as Gujarat CM, even visited China ignoring the union government’s disapproval of the tour. Modi first went to Hong Kong before landing in the mainland. To the embarrassment of the then Indian ambassador in Beijing, he even visited the embassy and met diplomats and other employees. Few were surprised when Prime Minister Modi invited President Xi, on his maiden visit to India, to land in Ahmedabad first on September 16, 2014. Incidentally, it was on the eve of Modi’s birthday. The Chinese president came with a big delegation of businessmen who were kin to invest in Gujarat. One of the agreements signed during President Xi Jinping’s visit was to set up a 10-sq km industrial park near Ahmedabad which would attract one billion dollar worth Chinese investments. The Chinese media wrote glowingly on the Gujarat business model after the Xi visit of Ahmedabad. The business ties between the two countries became so strong that within three years China became India’s biggest trade partner, unsettling the US. However, in 2018-19, the US surpassed China to become India’s top trading partner again, forging greater economic ties between the two countries. The bilateral commerce between the US and India rose to $87.95 billion as against India-China trade aggregating $ 87.07 billion.
It may be time for both Modi and Xi to closely look at what really had gone wrong in the relationship between the two neighbours in the course of less than two years. The two leaders know that peaceful relationship will benefit both the countries. China was the biggest economic beneficiary of such relationship between 2014 and 2018. China’s changed strategic view is fast pushing India to the US camp. Both India and China must appreciate the fact that getting into camps make a country vulnerable. India has to practically sacrifice its age old good relationship with Iran at the US behest. On the other hand, Russia, India’s most trusted friend, is now very close to China. Diplomacy makes strange bedfellows. Even China may once again come closer to the US. There is no permanent friendship in diplomacy as permanent interest rarely exists. On India’s part, the country would do well by retaining its time-tested strategic option. (IPA Service)