By Dr. Gyan Pathak
India needs immediate policy intervention to prevent its national capital Delhi to become hell by 2030 by curbing at least 1 per cent of Carbon Monoxide (CO) Emissions from Vehicles. A delay of three years could increase the CO emission level by 16 per cent compared to the level of 2021, and in business as usual (BAU) scenario it would increase by 40 per cent. Rise in CO level will have devastating effect on health and excess exposure is known to reduce the ability of blood to carry oxygen to critical organs like the heart and the brain, and thereby causing fatigue, headaches, confusion, dizziness and even death, depending upon the level of exposure.
The estimates are made by an ADBI working paper on “Role of Policy Interventions in Limiting Emissions from Vehicles in Delhi, 2020 – 2030” just released. The paper has estimated the emission levels in three scenarios – first the Optimistic Scenario (OPS), second the Pessimistic Scenario (PES), and the third Business as Usual Scenario (BAU). OPS presume immediate policy intervention, PES a delay by three years, and BAU assumes no policy interventions in the transport sector and a status quo to be in operation for the coming decade.
The estimates are of immense value at a time when India is already among the countries having the highest exposure to particulate matter (PM), at PM2.5 in the world. The mean PM2.5 level was 89.9 μg/m³ in 2017, with pollution being highest in Delhi followed by Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Haryana. In almost all the states of India, the concentration of PM2.5 is found to be above the permissible limits of 10 ug/m3 set by the World Health Organization (WHO).
In a recent study, it was shown that an average person in India could continue to live for an additional 5.2 years if the global air pollution standards were maintained. Apart from an increased mortality rate, the air pollution severely affects labour productivity and crop yields as well as impacting a multitude of sectors. In effect, it resulted in an economic loss of approximately 1.4 per cent of GDP.
While air pollution is an issue all over India, rapid unplanned urban growth has worsened the situation in cities. Urban population has grown nearly five times in 50 years. Urban population is presently 400 million up from only 60 million in 1947. About 140 million have moved to the cities by 2020, and another 700 million are expected to move by 2050. Urban pollution including PM, Oxides of Sulphur, Carbon, and Nitrogen, greenhouse gases, ozone precursors, and aerosols has subsequently risen to very high levels.
Among the cities, the conditions in Delhi and National Capital Region (NCR) are alarming. The air pollution levels have been consistently above 100 μg/m³ inthe last 10 years, which is more than 10 times the permissible limit. Consequently, if Delhi’s air were cleaned, the gain in life expectancy could be to the tune of an additional nine years. Amongst the sources of air pollution in Delhi, fossil fuel-based vehicles contribute nearly 39 per cent of the total pollution. This is followed by road dust (18 per cent), industries (14 per cent), and construction activities (8 per cent).
Multisectoral policy interventions are probably the only solution, and India needs to go beyond the so-called tightening of the emission limits for particulate matter from the transport sector through Bharat Stage VI standard being implemented from April 1, 2020. India also plans to roll out Euro 6 fuel all over the country which would be in addition to the earlier measure of 2001 for CNG for all public transport in Delhi. NITI Aayog in 2018 had proposed even further targets towards electrification of public transport.
The ADBI working paper has taken into consideration all these initiatives while calculating the result in different scenarios. Focus was on Delhi, since it has been the city where policy efforts to reduce air pollution by transport sector firs began, and further Euro 6 fuel was introduced first and subsequently in other cities of the country. Working paper mentions the paucity of real-time information on several indicators.
Under OPS, the major assumptions are: 50 per cent of the DTC bus fleet are assumed to be electric by 2024 (3000 buses) and 100 per cent by 2029 (6,000 buses); 25 per cent of the new two-wheeler and three-wheeler sales are assumed to be electric by 2024; and 55 per cent of the new two-wheeler and three-wheeler sales are to be electric by 2030. Three year delay is presumed under PES, except lowering down the percentage of new electric two and three wheeler sales from 55 per cent to 40 per cent by 2030. BAU presumes no new policy apart from BS-VI vehicles. The estimates have also assumed no policy intervention to control PM emissions in other sectors including residential, industry, agriculture burning and dust which contribute 61 per cent to the total pollution in Delhi. Thus, the growth of emissions from those sectors is assumed to follow the rate of growth trend.
Estimated growth rates are 6.6 per cent for two-wheelers, 3.1 per cent for three-wheelers, 6 per cent for light-duty vehicles, 4.2 per cent for heavy-duty vehicles, and 1.7 per cent for busses. Overall number of vehicles in Delhi would thus grow from 1.13 crore in 2019 to 2.16 crore in 2030, almost double in a decade.
In post -2021, a 53 per cent decline in PM emission in 2030 is expected under OPS compared to 2021, and 49 per cent under PES, and 40 per cent under BAU. The year 2020 is not taken as base year since lockdowns and containment measures had brought down emission levels by 40 per cent, which is bound to increase in the coming years. However, these could bring down overall city’s PM level only between 20.67 per cent and 17.6 per cent.
Hydrocarbon Emissions from vehicle is expected to reduce by 27 per cent under OPS, 25 per cent under PES, and 24 per cent under BAU in 2030. Until 2024, it would fall uniformly in all scenarios but would be divergent thereafter. NO2 emissions to decline by 12.1 per cent, 12.8 per cent, and 15.3 per cent respectively.
The paper has thus suggested that policymakers should focus on a goal to make Delhi’s air clean in the medium and long term and should attempt to make the transport sector emissions neutral in the long term. The authors believed that if the proposed transport vision for Delhi is fully implemented, a significant reduction in emission could be achieved, however, multi-front action will be needed for successful implementation of these policies. Other recommendations included discouraging personal use of vehicles through incentive and disincentive mechanisms and promoting public transport. (IPA Service)
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