More than the arrogance it is the sense of insecurity gripping the RJD, and especially its chief ministerial aspirant, Tejashvi Yadav that has been proving to be a major deterrent in giving a final shape to the opposition grand alliance (mahagathbandhan) in Bihar. Only fifteen days back the general secretary of CPI(ML) liberation, Dipankar Bhattacharya has aroused the opposition passion for defeating the rightist forces by feeding the information that the grand alliance was a certainty and would soon acquire a shape. But the scenario has undergone a change. Expressing deep sorrow Bhattacharya after a fortnight informed that his party has refused to accept the number of seats offered.
From the beginning the RJD has been playing truant and was averse to respect the desires of the opposition parties on sharing of seats. The RJD had come out with the proposal that sharing of seats during 2015 should form the basis for the current seat adjustment. This proposition is not acceptable to any of the partners, especially to the CPI(ML), as the RJD offer does not reflect the actual strength of the CPI(ML) that exists in the state. Even in 2015 the CPI(ML) had managed to extract three seats when the RJD along with JD(U) of Nitish was pitted against the BJP.
This time the JD(U) is in alliance with the BJP. In that election JD(U) had won 71 seats. Obviously the RJD cannot stake its claim on those 71 seats. Those seats ought to be shared amongst the GA partners. Besides a number of RJD senior and prominent leaders with a bunch of legislators have already shifted their allegiance to the JD(U). Obviously the RJD cannot claim that the party is the vote catcher and has got independent appeal. Barely ten days back its second in command, the vice president Raghuvansh Singh had resigned from the primary membership of the party alleging that the party failed to represent the aspiration of the common Bihari.
Only 20 days back yet another senior constituent of the grand alliance, HAM of Jitanram Manjhi joined the NDA. The RJD has also been averse to accommodating the request of the Vikassheel Insan Party led by Mukesh Sahani. It is really beyond comprehension why Tejashvi was behaving in this erratic manner. Any action must have some kind of rational. This becomes more imperative when the RJD claims to be the big brother of the opposition.
The sources nevertheless maintain that RJD is also not interested in accommodating the claims of other left parties, especially the CPI. What has been most intriguing is the total lack of clarity on seat sharing. A senior Congress leader confided that the way the things are moving, it is certain that the opposition alliance will lose the election miserably to the BJP. The candidates will not be getting enough time to contact the electorates. More at a time when the pandemic has been at its peak, how could candidates dare to launch door to door campaign, which is essential part of electioneering?
Though speculations are rife that the RJD had finalised its sharing of seats with the Congress, a senior leader denied and described it as mere speculation. The uncertainty over the number and identification of seats to be contested by each of the constituents is causing uneasiness in the party and in some of the allies. The reluctance of the RJD to concede seats to the smaller parties, even to the left, has caused much consternation in the opposition circle. The left and other parties nurse the simple notion that Tejashvi and RJD are scared of the emergence of Kanhaiya Kumar on the political firmament of state.
Though the leadership issue has been gripping the mind of the RJD leaders, the left and other parties are open on this issue. The leaders of these parties feel that the issue of the chief ministerial candidate wouldn’t come in the way of a broader alliance. Kanhaiya is more interested in defeating the BJP than in being the chief ministerial face. Meanwhile some sad developments are taking place in opposition camp. Some leaders have launched a campaign against him. It’s a fact that the CPI, which had a formidable presence and base in Bihar till the early 1990s, has lost much of what it had but the CPI has pockets of influence in many seats which can be decisive in a closely contested election.
The Left parties still have disciplined cadres mainly in Jehanabad, Barauni-Begusarai, Mithila, Siwan and Champaran regions of the state. Though RJD claims to have social base amongst the Yadavs, it has turned shaky to a large extent in recent times. Nevertheless the opposition sources nurse the opinion that Lalu is expected to get bail and come out of jail sometime in October. Speculations are also being expressed that with Lalu out of jail, a surge in favour of RJD could be witnessed. This will ensure RJD win more seats and actually this is the reason that RJD intends to contest more seats.
The RJD think tank also contemplates to accommodate a substantial number of dalit candidates this time. Unlike in UP, Dalit politics in Bihar continue to be dependent on mainstream parties. The Ambedkarite radical consciousness is weak in the Dalit politics of Bihar and Dalit assertion at the grass roots continues to be weak. The Dalits of Bihar are different from the Dalits of UP. Actually the RJD is also not willing to give too many seats to the CPI(ML) as their candidates would be from the dalit section. In that scenario, the RJD cannot stake the claim of being the sympathiser of the Dalits. It is said that the Naxalite movement, which attracted dalit and landless peasants, was the vehicle of Dalit assertion in the state but in recent times, the rise of caste and social justice politics led to its marginalisation. (IPA Service)