By Sushil Kutty
The Times Now-VMR ‘Tracker
Poll’ telecast Wednesday evening projects NDA will get 252 Lok Sabha seats ‘if
elections are held today’. The UPA led by Congress will get 147 and ‘Others’
144. Notably, SP-BSP gathbandhan can hope to notch up 51 of the 80 seats in
Uttar Pradesh; BJP will have to settle for 27 and the Congress will be in
single digits. The setback for the NDA, says the opinion poll, will be offset
by a near sweep in Maharashtra and creditable showings in Bihar, Madhya
Pradesh, Rajasthan and Odisha.
The Congress, according to the
poll, will not be able to touch the 100 mark and consequently not be in a
position to lead a coalition government. Narendra Modi will lose his
‘invincibility’ and will end up ‘majboor’ not ‘majboot’; compelled to hunt for
allies to make up for the 20 seats required to touch the simple majority of
272. Surprisingly, Congress and Samajwadi Party representatives were quite
happy with the projections as long as they spelled the “end of Modi.”
Their satisfaction was that
anything short of a majority will see Modi panting on the bench and the BJP
will have to settle for somebody like acceptable-to-all Nitin Gadkari for Prime
Minister. In fact, even media on the panel voiced that limited objective:
“Guillotine Narendra Modi, that’s all we ask for.” And if that sounds like Modi
telling rallies – everybody against – so be it. Whether this line of argument
will go down well with the electorate is a matter of conjecture but it
definitely plays into Modi’s ‘victimhood’ narrative.
For Congress and Samajwadi
talking heads to settle for a Gadkari or somebody else foisted by the RSS on
the NDA and India, instead of Rahul Gandhi or Mayawati/Akhilesh, is damaging,
to say the least, for the Congress and the gathbandhan. It strengthens Modi’s
argument that the opposition wants Modi defeated because he alone is fighting
corruption. “Modi is incorruptible and he’s bringing the corrupt to book; so
they want to him out” is the BJP narrative. Modi reiterated as much Wednesday
evening at a “youth conclave” in Surat.
Samajwadi Party spokesperson
Ghanshyam Tiwari and Congress “representative” Nishant Varma should contain
their glee at the prospect of “Modi ousted” because such a line can only fuel
the “all the thieves want Modi out” BJP narrative. Opinion polls serve to
fashion perception. Party spokespersons should keep that in mind.
There’s still a far way to go
for Voting Day and the gloating should be kept bottled up till it’s time to
open the Champagne. Then, if Modi actually loses, will be time to get drunk on
power. Tipsy on a drop or two will draw only laughs, ridicule.
So far, all opinion polls
place NDA short of the 272 mark and the BJP nearly 100 short of that magic
figure. Faced with caste, and regional forces, the BJP is pushing the narrative
that it’s not a caste-based party and Modi’s “Sabka Saat Sabka Vikas”, work
done at the grassroots, irrespective of who got the benefits – Dalit or OBC;
Brahmin or Muslim – will fetch the BJP more seats than the Gathbandhan and the
Congress in Uttar Pradesh.
The BJP also argues that youth
make up the mass of the electorate and they do not mix ‘caste’ with ‘vikas’ on
the plate. It says 12 crore voters will be added to the voting pool this
general election and these first-timers are the smartphone generation who want
to gatecrash into the development league. It believes Priyanka Gandhi will make
a dent in the caste vote-banks of the Gathbandhan to the benefit of the
‘casteless BJP.’
If anything bothers and riles
Modi and the BJP, it’s Rahul Gandhi’s ‘Chowkidar Chor Hai’ war-cry. It has
rattled the BJP leadership. Opinion polls are not the best assessment of what
the voters are thinking. The Times Now-VMR opinion poll gives the majority of
Lok Sabha seats in Rajasthan to the BJP but the Ramgarh by-poll result went in
favour of the Congress. That said, the poll gave the BJP the run in Haryana and
the Jind by-poll was swinging the BJP’s way.(IPA Service)
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