THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: With Prime
Minister Narendra Modi and Congress president Rahul Gandhi sounding the poll bugle
during their visits to Kerala, political mercury has soared in the state.
Consequently, political
parties have slipped into the poll mode. Seat allocation talks have gathered
momentum. Expectedly, hard bargaining over ‘winnable seats’ is well and truly
on.
While the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic
Front (LDF) is free from hassles, problems plague both the Congress-headed
United Democratic Front (UDF) and the BJP camps.
The LDF is exuding optimism.
The Front is hoping to build on the momentum created by the huge success of the
unique ‘Women’s Wall’ programme. There are indications that the front is likely
to drop Independents backed by it. That would mean that Independent MPs like
Innocent, who won from Chalakudi and Joyce George who came out the victor from
Idukki, may not get a second term. The strategy seems to be to field a few
CPI(M state secretariat members. Topping the list of aspirants are PK
Sreemathi, who is likely to be retained in Kannur, KN Balagopal from Kollam and
M V Govindan Master from Kasargode. P. Karunakaran, who represents Kasargode
has completed three terms. Therefore, he is unlikely to be re-nominated.
Likewise, P. Rajiv may be fielded from Chalakudi. As things stand now, the
CPI(M) is sure to retain Alathur, Palakkad and Attingal. The p[arty will face a
stiff challenge if former chief minister Oommen Chandy is the UDF candidate
from Idukki. The CPI(M) is making a determined attempt to wrest Kozhikode and
Vadakara from the Congress this time.
As for the CPI, the party is
set to contest from the four constituencies it was allotted last time. These
are Thiruvananthapuram, Mavelikkara, Thrissur and Wayanad. In Thiruvananthapuram,
the party may put up a heavyweight candidate to challenge sitting Congress MP
Shashi Tharoor, who will most probably be retained. Thrissur, which sent the
party’s lone Lok Sabha MP, Jayadevan, could see a change of candidate. If
Jayadevan is dropped, then KP Rajendran, who is close to the central leadership,
may get a chance. As for Wayanad, Satyan Mokeri, who put up a gallant fight
before losing to MI Shanavas of the Congress – who has passed away – by a
narrow margin of 20, 000 votes, may get a second term. Mavelikkara may also see
another strong CPI candidate being fielded.
In contrast to the smooth
sailing LDF is expected to have on seat allocation, the UDF has already run into
rough weather. The front is facing serious problems with both Indian Union
Muslim League (IUML) and Kerala Congress (Mani) demanding an additional seat.
KC(M) chief K M Mani has upped the ante by saying that there would be no
compromise on the second seat demand.
Similarly, the IUML is also
under pressure from the Youth League, the party’s youth wing and Samastha, its
main backer, to demand a third seat apart from the two it already has in its
kitty.
It remains to be seen whether Congress
would succumb to the politics of brinkmanship being played by the IUML and the
KC(M). If the track record is anything to go by, Congress is likely to yield to
the pressure from the allies. But there is a difference this time around
though. There is a strong feeling in the Congress that in view of the special
significance of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, in which the Congress must win as
many seats as is possible to wrest the BJP from power at the Centre, the party
must reject the allies’ demand for extra seats.
Also, the party is in a
confident mood following the ‘roaring success’ of the Rahul visit. There is no
doubt the Gandhi scion has galvanized the Congress rank and file. His meeting
in Kochi was well-attended. His message that the party organization must be
strengthened has gone home. And the Congress in Kerala has buckled down to the
task of revitalizing the organizational machinery.
As far as the BJP is
concerned, the party is riven with factionalism. BJP is focusing mainly on
Thiruvananthapuram, Attingal, Pathanamthitta, Thrissur, Palakkad, Kasargode and
Alappuzha. The B JP leadership thinks it is in a position to put up a good show
in view of what it calls huge gains from the Sabarimala agitation. The party
particularly fancies its chances in Thiruvananthapuram, Pathanamrthitta and Kasargode,
from where top party leaders may chance their luck. The names doing the rounds
are BJP state chief for Thiruvananthapuram, K. Surendran from Kasargode and MT
Ramesh from Pathanamthitta. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s two visits to the
state have, no doubt, enthused the party. But can the BJP translate the
euphoria into votes? That is the big question.
A notable feature of BJP’s
poll strategy is that the RSS has gained complete control over the state party.
It will have a decisive say in the matter of seat allocation. In other words,
the BJP list could spring a few surprises. The reason why the RSS has decided
to cut the state BJP leaders to size is its displeasure over the virulent
factionalism plaguing the party. The RSS is also of the view that the BJP
squandered a golden opportunity to expand its influence and base in the state
by its inept handling of the Sabarimala agitation. (IPA Service)
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