The third millennium began in the midst of resurgence in telecom and computer sector. India with its reservoir of technologists soon came in the front line of that global churning with the Indian engineers making a big name in the software sector. But in the course of that churning, some setbacks also took place. The dotcom ventures which grew exponentially throughout the world, busted in the absence of a viable revenue model. Indian ventures were also affected.
I had the good fortune of attending in the year 2000 the biggest international conference in Shanghai organised by the leading American computer manufacturing company of that period, The conference was attended by more than five thousand delegates, most of them below 30 years Americans and the Chinese were the dominating sections in the conference, but Indians were also in good numbers and their experiences in India were heard with rapt attention. It was clear to me that this new generation will be the vanguard of the coming digital revolution that will transform the world economies including India in the coming decades of the 21st century.
During this Vajpayee period, the riots took place in Gujarat in February-March 2002 when Narendra Modi was the chief minister. More than one thousand innocent Muslims were killed as a retaliation of the attack on Hindu pilgrims in a train at Godhra. The state administration failed to protect the lives of the minorities. It was a deliberate decision. Even after 20 years, the riot victims did not get justice neither from the government, nor from the judiciary. Narendra Modi effectively used the majoritarian sentiments against the minorities to win the assembly elections in the state later that year. This Modi model has remained still valid even after two decades in the arsenal of BJP. And RSS.
Vajpayee had a tough time in dealing with Pakistan after the terrorist attack on Parliament House on December13, 2001. The situation went to such a pass that India took war type preparations on the border in May/June 2002. Pakistan also did the same. Both US and Russia got worried.US sent its senior official to both New Delhi and Islamabad. Vajpayee was firm and finally the Pak side agreed to some suggestions of the Indian side to ease the heightening tensions.
Interestingly in June 2002, I was in Russia working for a supplement for The Economic Times coinciding with his coming visit of Russian President Vladimr Putin to India. PM’s principal secretary Brajesh Mishra was in the same flight with me while returning from Moscow to Delhi.PM was then visiting a CIS country. He had no programme in Moscow. So, I asked an official accompanying Mishra how was it that Mishra was in Moscow while PM was on a visit to CIS. He said that the Russians wanted to have urgent talks and he came and had discussions. He gave enough indications that the situation would ease soon. In fact, later I was told that both the US and Russia forced the then Pakistan govt to agree to take immediate action against the terrorist camps in Pakistan being used against India.US side also threatened Pakistan that the economic aid to Pakistan would be cut if Pakistan did not agree to U.S. peace formula. Vajpayee’s firmness during this crisis paid temporary dividends.
Came 2004 Lok Sabha elections. Vajpayee faced the polls with great confidence as the India Shining campaign was on in full steam. The Congress leadership was apprehensive about the outcome before the polls. But to the surprise of all, the NDA lost, and the Congress President Sonia Gandhi formed United Progressive Alliance (UPA) with other non- BJP opposition parties to form the Government. The biggest support came from the Left which got a total of 62 seats in 2004 Lok Sabha elections. The CPI(M) alone got 44 seats and the CPI 10.CPI(M) general secretary Harkisen Singh Surjeet played an emeritus role in the formation of the non-BJP government again just like he did after1989 and 1996 Lok Sabha polls.
Congress President Sonia Gandhi chose Dr. Manmohan Singh as the Prime Minister, and he began with enough goodwill. The economy was already growing under Vajpayee regime and now Dr. Singh took that forward. But a major crisis occurred to the first UPA regime in 2008 over the India-US Nuclear Deal. PM was very insistent on this deal despite consistent opposition by the Left which was supporting the Government from outside with its 62 MPs. The situation came to a head in July 2008 after Dr. Manmohan Singh concluded the deal with the US President George Bush in Washington.
On July 9, the Left parties led by the CPI(M) and conveyed their decision to withdraw support from the UPA govt. Sonia tried to persuade the PM to talk to the Left for finding out a way for avoiding fall of the first UPA government but there was no common ground. PM was firm that the Deal must be honoured while the Left said that PM was supposed to discuss the Deal with the Left as per earlier understanding, but he did it unilaterally. Finally, the confidence was put to vote in Lok Sabha for discussion on July 21 and 22. The Left voted against the Government along with the BJP and some others, But Dr. Singh won the confidence vote The Left was proved wrong in its understanding that the government will fall as a result of the Left withdrawal.
At the CPI(M) level, a major development took place. The senior CPI(M) MP Somnath Chatterjee took over as the Speaker of Lok Sabha in 2004 as soon as the new session started. He was supported by all political parties including the opposition. CPI(M) leadership asked Chatterjee to resign from the speakership following its decision to withdraw support from the first UPA govt. Chatterjee took the position that the Speaker’s position was beyond the domain of party diktat, and he could not be asked to resign. However, the CPI(M) leadership stuck to its position. Since Chatterjee acted as a speaker during the confidence vote debate and defied the party directive, he was expelled from the CPI(M) on July 23 one day after the confidence vote was approved
Chatterjee was with the CPI(M) for more than four decades. He was the most prominent speaker in Lok Sabha for more than three decades. He was very upset mentally He remained as a speaker till the end of the term of the Lok Sabha, but he looked a dejected man. His usual roaring voice and ebullience were missing. Chatterjee went for retired life after the last Lok Sabha session before its term was over.
In 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress under Sonia Gandhi recorded unexpected results. The Congress got 206 seats as against 116 by the BJP. The Left got 24 seats as against 62 in 2004 elections. CPI(M)’s own tally came down to 16 in 2009 polls as against 44 in 2004 elections. The severance of the Left’s relations with the Congress after 2008 July developments led to a new equation in West Bengal politics. The Congress and Trinamool Congress led by Mamata Banerjee joined hands in 2009 Lok Sabha polls leading to big falloff seats for the CPI(M) in Lok Sabha. This trend continued in 2011 assembly polls in West Bengal with the trouncing of the Front by the Trinamool Congress- Congress combination. The 34 years of rule of Left Front in West Bengal came to an end.
The last phase of the second term of UPA was marked by a number of scams, mainly the telecom scam. In 2013, the Manmohan Singh govt was virtually non-functioning like the last years of Rajiv Gandhi regime in 1988 and 1989. In 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP for the first time achieved majority on its own by getting 282 seats as against 44 seats by the Congress. The Left’s downhill journey continued as the Left got a total of 11 seats as against 24 in 2009 polls. Prime Minister Narendra Modi emerged as the undisputed leader of the BJP. It was for the first time Sangh Parivar could make use of the central administration to implement its programme of saffronising the institutions of the country with its objective of making secular India a Hindu Rashtra.
PM Narendra Modi enjoyed absolute power in the government just like Indira Ganshi and he made use of that in imparting some shocks to the economy. Demonetisation was announced on November 8 night in 2016 without due preparations. Similarly, this was followed by the introduction of GST. Both gave big jolt to the small businesses and the informal economy. The process of hyper nationalism and Hindutva continued with success as the opposition was not strong enough to give a good fight. The main party the Congress was too directionless to emerge as the natural leader of the opposition to take on burgeoning BJP.
2019 Lok Sabha elections were held in this political climate. The BJP further improved its position by getting 303 seats while the Congress got 52 seats marginally better compared to 2014. The Left performance further worsened as it got only five seats together out of which four seats were due to alliance with DMK in Tamil Nadu. That way, the CPI(M) got only one seat from Kerala on the basis of its own strength in 2019 elections.
Since then, the last three years of the second term of Modi regime have been marked by covid pandemic continuing for more than two and half years, acute joblessness and rising prices in the essential commodities hurting most the people at the bottom. The jobless growth model has end to widening of inequalities, the institutions autonomy has been eroded, India’s rank has dipped to the lowest level in terms of protecting democratic and human rights and press freedoms. As regards West Bengal, the Left’s worst period came when in 2019 Lok Sabha, the Left got no seat., and further in 2021 assembly elections, the Left failed to get any assembly seat. What a fall? I am not sure whether the real reasons behind this continuing decline in Bengal are being properly analysed. Till then, there cannot be any turnaround for the Left in Bengal.
As India is celebrating its 75thanniversary of independence, I see three India’s in terms of per capita. As per a recent study, at the top, there is a sort of Europe of about 50 million people with per capita income of US$ 45,000 per annum in terms of purchasing power party (PPP), then an Indonesia of 425 million people with per capita income of US$ 9500 per annum. This is the middle class and the aspiring entrepreneurs who are hardworking and fighting hard to reach the top. Then there is the bottom group of 900 million wi9th a per capita income of US$ 3300 per annum. Out of this bottom group, there are 300 million whose income levels are less than those of sub-Sahara Africa. All studies are saying that India will be the third largest economy after United States and China in 2032 in terms of GDP, but will this GDP growth lead to the upgradation of the bottom 900 million Indian people to the second level as of Indonesia in 2032? Also, what will happen to the present 300 million who are below the sub Sahara level
India travels to 2047 the centenary year of its independence after 25 years., Our goals will be to ensure education, health care, jobs and shelter for every citizen. The development model has to ensure the bridging of the inequality gap so that the 900 million people’s lives improve in a substantial manner, especially of those 300 million who are below sub-Saharan level. India is now 75 years young with more than 5,000 years old civilisation behind. The Indian people have the uncanny power of showing the authoritarians their doors. India is sure to rise in the next 25 years by retaining its democratic spirit, ensuring secular values and building inclusive Bharat in every respect. I am sure the next 25 years will be the first stage of the Asian century led by India and China. (IPA Service) Concluded.
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