By
B. Sivaraman
Two different announcements on a
single day—the AIADMK-PMK deal announced in the morning and the AIADMK-BJP deal
declared the same evening—brought to light the dramatic shift of electoral
fortunes in Tamil Nadu. The PMK would contest 7 seats—six out of the total 39
seats in Tamil Nadu—and the lone Lok Sabha seat in Pondicherry. The BJP would
contest 5 seats.
If the morning announcement indicated
the emergence of a formidable electoral-social alliance, the evening pact
proclaimed re-entry of the AIADMK into the NDA camp and rendered an all-India
political legitimacy to the alliance. Negotiations were also going on with the
DMDK party led by actor Vijayakant and sources indicate that the party has been
offered 3 or 4 seats and the DMDK too might be roped in if they settle for
that. Dr. Krishnaswamy, the leader of Puthiya Thamizhagam, is also expected to
be roped in and he is expected to contest on AIADMK symbol itself. If such a
broader alliance materialises that would make it even more formidable and it
would be an uphill task for the Congress-DMK alliance to bag even a decent
tally of seats.
More than the political accord, the
social realignment that this broader alliance would represent makes it a really
strong force. At the level of prominent leaders, the Chief Minister Edappadi K.
Palaniswami hails from the agriculturally developed elite OBC community of
Goundars, also known as Kongu Vellala Goundars, who are very economically
powerful primarily in the western region of Tamil Nadu including the industrially
developed Coimbatore, Erode, Salem and Namakkal districts and also having a
sizable presence in some adjoining industrial districts like Karur.
At the time of Jayallaithaa, the
dominant OBC peasant caste of the southern districts known as Mukkulaththor (the
three castes combine of Thevar, Kallar and Agamudaiyar) used to be quite
influential within the AIADMK. Sasikala hails from this community background.
The post-Jayalalithaa transition also marked the rise of the economically more
powerful Goundar elite to a position of greater relative prominence within
AIADMK, which to some extent reflected the shifting ground realities.
Top BJP leaders from Tamil Nadu like
Union Minister of State Pon Radhakrishnan and BJP State President Ms.
Tamizhisai Soundarrajan hail from the powerful OBC business caste of Nadars.
Though comparable to Banias of the North India, they were originally
toddy-tappers who have dramatically risen as a trading community within a
couple of generations.
PMK is a party predominantly of the
OBC peasant caste of Vanniyar community, spread in sizable numbers across
northern districts of Tamil Nadu.
Puthiya Thamizhagam, is a party
predominantly of dalit Pallar community concentrated in the southern districts
of Tamil Nadu. Naturally, such a conglomerate would be socially and spatially
quite formidable.
The seat sharing between allies the
Congress and the DMK has not yet been announced. The Congress reportedly would
not settle for anything less than 10 seats and many in the DMK consider these
10 as ‘wasted seats” as Congress doesn’t have a strong grassroots presence at
the booth committee level. Still, it gives the alliance an all-India political
profile and an electoral momentum. There might not be any third front in Tamil
Nadu as the DMK-Congress alliance might also rope in the Left and other parties
like MDMK of VaiKo and Viduthalai Chiruththaigal of Tirumavalavan, a party
predominantly of dalit Parayar community concentrated in the northern
districts.
The Chief Minister Edappadi
Palaniswami initially had an image problem of treachery as he was handpicked by
Sasikala but he turned against her and shifted loyalty to Modi. His rule was
widely seen as Centre’s proxy rule.
Tamil Nadu might be a model state in
industrial development but it is also a model in purchasing votes. Only this
time, Mr. Edappadi used Rs.1200 crore from the State exchequer to announce Rs.
2000 one-time gift to 60 lakh BPL families in the State on 11 February 2019,
well before the elections. That move made him immensely popular.
The fall guy through this entire
political process is TTV Dinakaran, nephew of Sasikala. Initially, the AIADMK
lower cadre were with him and it looked that the real contest would be between
him and MK Stalin of the DMK. But with Edappadi silently consolidating himself,
TTV’s fortunes have faded and the AIADMK base has overwhelmingly shifted back
to Edappadi.
Even the strongest armour is bound to
have its chinks. Keen political observers ask why the two announcements of
electoral pacts of AIADMK did not come together but followed each other after a
long gap the same day. Earlier Edappadi even gave the impression that an open
alliance with the BJP would only be a liability because of the anti-incumbency
over demonetisation and GST, which badly affected the economy of Tamil Nadu.
His entire calculation was to strike a better post-election deal with the BJP
after winning maximum seats in Tamil Nadu as BJP cannot contribute anything in
terms of votes to the alliance.
AIADMK under Edappadi appeared to be
driving a hard bargain. According to poll observers, it was the politics of
blackmail of using income-tax and CBI raids which forced the AIADMK to declare
the poll pact the same day. Edappadi also has several skeletons in his cupboard
and hence is quite vulnerable. Edappadi would be doubly conscious of a possible
pressure from BJP for a leadership change in the Tamil Nadu government after
the polls.
Blackmail might force an alliance from
above but whether it can make it work at the grassroots is doubtful. In the
absence of clear majority for any combination in the post-poll scenario,
whether the BJP can take for granted all the MPs of AIADMK is also an open
question. (IPA Service)
The post BJP’s Poll Pact With AIADMK Is A Good News For NDA appeared first on Newspack by India Press Agency.
