As
the year 2018 comes to close, it is pertinent to look back and see how the year
that was politically. It has been especially important as it taught a few
lessons to the political parties of all shades. Till a few months ago, no one
expressed doubts about Modi coming back to power in 2019 but now it is not a
cakewalk. More importantly, the BJP juggernaut had been stopped during the year
at least temporarily, giving a jolt to Modi government and his party. The BJP’s
defeat in the year began first in Karnataka and then in December in Rajasthan,
Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh that is the bastion of the BJP. Modi is no
longer invincible. The results in the Hindi heartland in December shows that
the BJP could not escape anti-incumbency even in its bastions.
Secondly,
the electoral fortunes of the Congress are looking up with the Rahul Gandhi-led
Congress getting a big boost after the impressive wins in Rajasthan, Madhya
Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. He has emerged as a leader in his own right after
this. The Congress is now the biggest party in five relatively large states —
Karnataka, Punjab, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. So,
Congress-Mukt Bharat is no longer a reality. Also the party has shown it has
strong regional leaders.
The
tide began to turn from December 2017 when the BJP got a narrow majority in
Gujarat. Then in May 2018 the Congress took a surprising decision to back the
minor player JD(S) to form the government in Karnataka to stop the BJP. This
showed that coalition is the best bet for the Opposition. The picture of senior
opposition leaders including Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, Deve Gowda, Mayawati,
Mamata Banerjee and Ajit Singh etc holding their hands was a telling picture.
Since then Gandhi and the once-dithering Congress appears more focused and
consistent. The Opposition is trying to forge a common anti-BJP front in 2019.
Thirdly,
the BJP’s alliances are showing signs of strain as its allies are voicing
concerns about the BJP’s ‘big brother’ attitude. Some have abandoned the NDA
during the year and most important of all was the Telugu Desam in March.
Bihar’s Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP)-led by Upendra Kushwaha was the
latest to quit. What is worse is both of them have joined the Congress led
UPA. Another strange thing is the tie up
in the recent Assembly elections in Telengana between the Congress and Telugu
Desam. The two parties had been bitter rivals since the birth of TDP in 1982.
Earlier,
the PDP-BJP experiment collapsed in Jammu and Kashmir proving unnatural
alliances cannot work in Indian politics for long. BJP lost the support of
Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha in Bihar. Shiv Sena has been
threatening to leave. Pavan Kalyan’s Jana Sena, also quit in Andhra Pradesh.
The Congress on the other hand did the un thinkable by joining hands with the
TDP and JD (S).
Fourthly,
the BJP or its allies are today ruling in the seven states and this is indeed a
big change from the earlier days when the Congress ruled the seven sisters for
long. The BJP has proved that it has become a pan national party by spreading
its wings in the West, East and Central India besides having roots in
Karnataka. The northeast has become Congress-mukt now.
Fifthly,
that the agrarian crisis has led to more than 3,00,000 suicides among farmers
in the last twenty years. The BJP is in a denial mode even after suffering
electoral loses in some states. It is going to be one of the biggest issues in
the 2019 polls. The BJP should have taken note of it when 30,000 farmers came
knocking at Delhi in October-November. They want an unconditional loan waiver
as well as the implementation the recommendations of the M S Swaminathan
Commission, a demand the successive governments have been ignoring. The opposition as well as the BJP will have
to come up with new narrative, as the
farm loan waiver by different states is not the answer. They need more
innovative solutions.
Sixthly
the demonetization and the GST need to be addressed. It is clear that
demonetization had hit people hard and even two years later the informal sector
and agriculture are still suffering from it. Job losses are also evident.
Seventhly,
the BSP chief Mayawati cannot be ignored politically and the year 2019 will see
more and more parties running after her for alliance. Eighthly, the national
parties have not been able defeat the regional satraps as has been proved by
Telangana Rashtra Samithi chief K Chandrashekhar Rao. Also the BJP has not been
able to expand in the south.
The
year 2019 will show how much the political parties will address the lessons
learnt in 2018. It will be visible in the poll results but the NDA and the UPA
both need a new narrative to woo the voters. (IPA Service)
The post Bjp’s Dreams Of ‘Congress-Mukt’ Bharat Bite The Dust appeared first on Newspack by India Press Agency.
