The upcoming Bihar elections are unique in many ways. In fact this will be the first digital poll held amidst Covid. This time, the elections will be fought through virtual rallies and door-to-door campaigns as well of the social media. The BJP is far ahead of the others because of its experience in virtual mode. It will indeed be a big achievement if the digital experiment succeeds in a backward state like Bihar.
There are many other firsts in the November Bihar polls. The absence of the former Bihar Chief Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav is a big loss for the opposition alliance, as they lack a charismatic leader. His rustic charm in keeping the audience in splits with jokes is unbeatable. He made the poor and oppressed believe that they were the real rulers under him. It was he, who created the Muslim Yadav (MY) vote bank. Lalu is in jail serving his sentence on the fodder scam. In 2015, Lalu played a big role by stitching up the Grand Alliance, which won big.
Lalu’s son Tejaswi is his successor and he is leading the RJD ever since both Lalu and Rabri Devi went out of action, but he is yet to acquire that Lalu charisma among the party’s supporting base. In the absence of any tall leaders in the alliance Tejaswi is the chief ministerial face. The RJD’s social media accounts are now full of images of Tejashwi meeting people in the flood- hit areas. The RJD has its own problems, as the sibling rivalry is a hindrance to unity in the party. Moreover senior leaders like Raghuvans Pratap Singh are unhappy and thinking of moving to other parties.
Another first is the migrant labour issue. They have become a new vote bank. The opposition believes that the Nitish Kumar government has not done enough for them. The whole country saw the plight of millions of Bihari migrant labour walking back to their villages because of the mishandling by both the Central and state governments. It is estimated that at least two million migrant labours had returned to their homes in Bihar. The unemployment rate in Bihar is 46.6 per cent, the highest in the country.
The third is the impact of Covid. This will be the first Assembly poll in the midst of Covid. Bihar has recorded over 1.2 lakh Covid cases so far. The government claims that around one-lakh tests are being done daily after a slow start, and the number of positive cases has declined. The Opposition parties dispute and have alleged that the state government was tampering with data. Bihar is also facing the flood havoc.
Fourthly, it will be the first time the three communist parties might have an electoral pact with the RJD. Both the CPI and CPI (M) have in the past contested elections either with the RJD or the Janata Dal and this time they will be part of the opposition alliance. The CPI(ML) had an understanding in last elections also. This time also, talks have taken place.
Given the demography of Bihar, backward caste voters hold the key to power. Other Backward Classes (OBC) constitutes 45 per cent to 50 per cent of the population in Bihar, whereas upper castes, Muslim and Scheduled Castes account for around 15 per cent each. Bihar generally votes on caste lines.
Fifthly, by giving a political colour to the recent murder of actor Sushant Singh, it has become a poll issue. Politicians will not hesitate to use even murder for their benefit and Sushant murder is being used as a major issue by the NDA.
Meanwhile, the election fever is picking up with major parties that are beginning their virtual campaign since Monday. The NDA and the Grand Alliance are the two major groupings. BJP, JDU (U) and RJD are major triangular forces of Bihar politics today but no political party is in a situation to form a government of its own.
The Congress has decided to hold 100 virtual rallies. It has not developed strong state level leadership. Party workers and leaders in Bihar squarely blame the state leadership for the Congress’s poor prospects.
The JD (U) is strengthening itself by inducting several party hoppers and so does the other camp. Jitan Ram Manjhi, former Bihar CM and the chief of Hindustani Awami Morcha Secular (HAM-S) had quit the GA recently and joined the NDA. Sharad Yadav who was expelled by the party for anti party activities is likely to return to the JD (U).
Even though, the BJP president J.P. Nadda recently had asserted that the NDA would contest the forthcoming poll in Bihar united.LJP president Chirag Paswan, the son of Ram Vilas Paswan has been attacking Nitish.
The voters too are going to follow the new guidelines of the government. These include the use of masks, gloves, sanitizers, thermal scanners and adhering to social distancing norms. The Election Commission proposes to implement strictly all these regulations.
Bihar is important for political parties as it has 40 Lok Sabha seats. It is too early to predict poll results, as there could always be election upsets but for now it is advantage BJP-JD (U) alliance because of weak and splintered opposition and lack of charismatic leaders.