By S. Sethuraman
Karnataka Assembly poll outcome in May will finally determine whether the Modi-Amit duo should opt for advancing Lok Sabha elections well ahead of April-May 2019. Such a decision becomes crucial for the Modi Government, with a perceptible spread of anti-incumbency mood in the country, and especially in the context of ongoing efforts to put up a Federal Front of regional parties to jointly fight to oust the BJP regime.
Perhaps the Karnataka result, if negative for the BJP, would give added impetus for a snap poll even as cautionary signals have already come in the by-polls for Lok Sabha and State Assemblies in BJP-ruled Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, yielding gains for Congress (Rajasthan and M P) for SP-BSP (Uttar Pradesh) and for RJD (Bihar).
Since Assembly elections are due by end of year/January in the three BJP-ruled states, the BJP leadership would rather like to combine them with an advanced Lok Sabha poll, with the sole expectation of minimising losses and yet be able to preserve its dominant strength. It is more likely that BJP could fall below the absolute majority mark of 272, given the emerging configuration of party positions. Besides, BJP-led NDA is showing cracks in the aftermath of exit of a major ally, Mr Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP in Andhra Pradesh and minatory noises from Mr K Chandrasekhar Rao’s TRS in Telangana. Both AP and Telangana have turned against the Modi Government and will have elections in 2019.
Taking on BJP in every state on a “one to one” basis, as proposed by TMC leader and Chief Minister Ms. Mamata Banerjee, with the strongest party in the State in the lead role, makes political sense, and if it materialises, can mark a dramatic turn in the current poll scenario with a new realignment of all non-BJP forces in States. But the question still remains on how far and on what terms the Congress, aiming to restore its national image and reinforce its presence in all states, could be part of these state-level anti-BJP alliances.
The moot point remains leadership at the national level (deserving for the largest party in the Front).The Congress at its recent plenary session in New Delhi did welcome “like-minded “parties joining together in the impending fight “to protect basic Constitutional levels.” Its spokesman has said Congress respects all leaders of opposition and the sentiments of Ms. Mamata Banerjee, who discussed the 1:1 formula for opposition parties with Ms. Sonia Gandhi on March 28.
However, he projected the showdown in 2019 as a fight “to save the country’s institutions, democracy, economy and the social fabric”. The Congress welcomes all parties and leaders “who are ready to stand shoulder to shoulder” with the Congress President Mr. Rahul Gandhi and Ms. Sonia Gandhi, he said.
Indeed, there is much work yet to be done to shape up People’s Front, in which veterans like Mr. Sharad Pawar insist on inclusion of the Congress, the leading opposition in Lok Sabha, with the second-largest vote share after BJP in 2014 (19.6 per cent). BJP was voted to power with a mere 31 per cent of the national vote. A one-to-one fight would mean a total share of 69 per cent for the anti-BJP alliance with an overwhelming mandate, according to analysts. But there is no mistaking on an anti-BJP alliance being set in motion with the avowed objective of defeating the Modi regime in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
A major factor of a growing disenchantment with the Prime Minister is with failure to create “millions of jobs”, along with his other promises in 2014. Added factors are the continuing farmer distress countrywide and the structural crisis in the state-owned banks, holding up revival of private investments, and triggering a loss of faith in credibility of financial institutions..
As poll debates are intensifying, little notice has been taken of the bleak economic outlook, and the major challenges and global uncertainties to be overcome with the continuing market turmoils and the build-up of global imbalances. Lacklustre growth of the last four years has worsened the state of economy, compounded by the disastrous demonetisation and the botched launch of GST in mid-2017. The economic slump had not wholly bottomed out by the end of fiscal 2018 for productive growth revival. The Modi Government’s fiscal and external (current account) imbalances are also on rise.
The new fiscal year beginning April 1, 2018 is full of challenges on the economic front, with the Union Budget of 2018/19 not rising to expectations of the middle class nor providing comfort for farmers with the budget tinkering with their woes without making serious efforts to transform the rural economy as a major contributor to the overall economic development.
The banking mess is unlikely to be got over in the new fiscal year, the GST has to be recast to secure its benefits equitably for the Centre and the States and for business and industries, large and small to thrive in a changing context.
Life for citizens in general has become harder from the majoritarian policy thrusts, as exemplified by a tyrannical push for Aadhaar and other regulatory devices. Taxes and Cesses have thrown more burdens on the mass of the people while inflation is again on the ascendant. The MPC chaired by RBI, meeting on April 5/6, would provide an update on the status of economy, revising some of its earlier projections. And it is likely to signal a hardening of monetary policy stance for the near future.
It is in a milieu with waves of farmers on the march and signs of the BJP-led Modi Government losing support even otherwise, as seen in recent bypolls for Lok Sabha and State Assemblies in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and UP, all under BJP rule, that the Modi Government has begun to show signs of desperation to think of advancing the Lok Sabha poll due in April-May 2019, possibly by end of 2018. (IPA Service)
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