By Ashis Biswas
For the Delhi-based Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), winning a seat in the 2022 Guwahati Municipal elections was not exactly a major victory, but it certainly helped in consolidating its position as the undisputed front runner among regional parties in India, currently ahead of the Trinamool Congress (TMC).
The political significance of the AAP’s victory, as the party contested these elections for the first time, went well beyond the number of seats won. Ms Masooma Begum, the party’s candidate contesting the minority-dominated ward 42, won convincingly. Along with the local Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) party also winning one seat, the AAP could claim to have resisted the massive victory sweep of the ruling NDA (BJP/AGP) coalition which ended up bagging 58 out of the 60 wards. The BJP won in 52 wards as against the AGP’s victory in 6.
Most state-based observers said the outcome was not surprising given current political trends in Assam. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, BJP President Mr, J.P. Nadda ad state Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma thanked the people of Guwahati for their support. So did Mr Arvind Kejriwal, AAP leader and Chief Minister of Delhi, as he congratulated Ms Begum.
The Indian National Congress the biggest opposition party, ended up not for the first time, as the worst losers, failing to win a single ward. Most post poll analyses indicated that pro-Congress voters especially Muslims, had voted for the AAP in many areas, ditching the grand old party.
In part the sad story of the Assam Congress is not very different from that of its other state units wherever it is in the opposition — a major failure of the top leaders to help/inspire local candidates and workers, lack of any effective programme or rallying slogan, inadequate resources and the usual infighting at local levels.
Nor was the Congress’s defeat restricted to Guwahati only. Senior Congress leaders made their usual pre-poll claims about doing well in these elections according to Guwahati-based media reports. Altogether civic elections were held in 80 urban/semi-urban areas. The NDA won in 73 but the Congress could not win a single civic body.
BJP leaders accused both the AAP and the AJP of resorting to communal propaganda in their pre-poll campaign. As stated before, Muslims and other sections not supporting the NDA seemed to voted en masse for the AAP. A sure sign that minority and other votes had shifted to the AAP in a major way was the fact that candidates of the newly contesting party came second in over 20 wards, in contrast to the poor performance on part of Congress candidates. They mostly claimed third or lower positions.
The outcome should provide much food for thought, mostly negative, for leaders of both the Congress as well as the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) led by Mr Badruddin Ajmal MP in the days ahead.
In West Bengal too the results were followed closely by analysts. The fact is ruling TMC circles in Bengal, determined to make their mark prior to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections as the strongest and most determined political challengers of the ruling BJP, have every reasons to be as unhappy as Congressmen over the GMC poll results.
Ever since the recent Goa Assembly elections, where the TMC and the AAP had both contested, relations between the parties had been strained. Abandoning their earlier respect for each other AAP leader Mr Kejriwal had questioned the seriousness, even the objective , of the TMC’s poll campaign in Goa conducted by the Bengal leaders.
The fact that the AAP later won two seats in the 40-strong house contesting for the first time, did not endear Mr Kejriwal or his party to the TMC, as the latter failed to win any seat. This despite its expensive, high-octane campaign led by MP Abhishek Banerjee, political heir apparent to Mamata Banerjee.
Now the TMC has been outflanked by the AAP’s foray in the East, after its debacle at Goa. True, veteran Congress leaders in Assam such as Mr Ripun Bora and others have recently joined the TMC. This followed some hectic efforts made by Ms Sushmita Dev who herself crossed over from India’s grand old party to the TMC some time ago, to revive her present party’s fortunes in Assam.
Earlier efforts made by TMC leaders to strike roots in Assam especially among Barak valley-based Bengalis did not succeed.
But Ms Dev also faces major problems. Even as she attends to problems in Assam the Tripura unit of the TMC, set up with much fanfare only months ago by Mr. Banerjee and other heavyweights has shot its bolt. The lone winning TMC candidate in the recently concluded Tripura civic polls recently resigned to join the BJP which has won 330 out of 335 seats.
Bottom line: With the AAP upstaging the TMC both in the East and the West and about to launch a fully functional unit in Bengal next, the TMC’s ambitions to emerge as the leading regional party to challenge the BJP all over India may not be easy to achieve. (IPA Service)
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