What
does the crystal ball say about the year 2019? The Lok Sabha polls and the
electoral fortunes of many political parties including the ruling BJP and the
main opposition Congress will dominate the year. The fortunes of some regional
satraps like Naveen Patnaik, N. Chandra Babu Naidu and Pavan Kumar Chamling
will also be decided as some states like Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Haryana, Jammu
and Kashmir, Sikkim, and Arunachal Pradesh will also go to polls at the same
time. Naveen Patnaik of Odisha will be bidding for power for the fifth time,
Naidu of Andhra Pradesh for the second time since bifurcation and Chamling of
Sikkim for the sixth time
Prime
Minister Narendra Modi will be seeking a second consecutive term while the
Congress President Rahul Gandhi will be testing his fortunes since he took over
the reins of the party in March. If Modi secures another term, the country will
move closer to becoming a majoritarian state. It is clear that 2019 will not be
a cake-walk for Modi and the coming months will be crucial for Opposition
unity.
The
political parties are getting ready as the poll dates are likely to be
announced in late February or March. The Election Commission is also preparing
for the event. About 900 million voters including 100 million First time voters
will exercise their franchise.
Many
opinion polls suggest that the anti-incumbency sentiment is on the rise, which
could dash the hopes of the Modi’s attempt to win a second term. The BJP won 73/80 in UP, 25/25 in Rajasthan,
27/29 in MP, 26/26 in Gujarat, 7/7 in Delhi, 5/5 in Uttarakhand and 4/4 in
Himachal Pradesh. This peak performance and may not be repeated as in 2019 as
BJP might lose at least100 seats. This has to be compensated from northeast and
the south.
According
to a poll conducted by Karvy Insights and India Today, the BJP is likely to win
30 per cent of votes in the 2019 elections, and secure 245 seats, 27 short of a
majority. Previous Lokniti-CSDS polls also suggest that the BJP’s popularity is
on the decline although the Prime Minister’s personal popularity continues. The
BJP has lost popularity mainly due to two economic measures – demonetization
and imposition of GST. Both hurt the small and medium businesses that are the core
voters of the BJP.
It
is not clear whether the winner will be a BJP-led coalition or a Congress-led
or a Third Front coalition. The fight will be between the ruling NDA and the
Congress-anchored UPA. The opposition needs an astute strategy to defeat the
NDA. The new narrative is likely to be Modi versus the rest.
Secondly,
while Modi will be the face of the BJP in 2019 polls, the UPA will not project
any one. Their prime ministerial candidate will be decided only in the post
poll scenario. Therefore though the Congress will try to unite the opposition,
the party president Rahul Gandhi will not be projected as the prime ministerial
face of the UPA as they will talk of collective leadership.
Thirdly,
both UPA and the NDA are in the process of strengthening their coalitions. The
NDA has been weakened by the exit of two major allies – the Telugu Desam and
the PDP and the Shiv Sena also threatens to quit. The BJP faces a challenge in the South. The
Congress Party has already reached an understanding with small regional parties
to build state-specific coalitions including in Telangana, Andhra Pradesh,
Karnataka, Maharashtra, Kerala, Jharkhand, Bihar and in UP alliance with the
SP, BSP and Left parties are in the making.
Fourthly,
economy and jobs will be major issues in the election along with corruption,
non- delivery of Modi’s poll promises, demonetization, GST, Rafale, Cow
vigilantism, Ram mandir in Ayodhya, rising petrol prices, agrarian crisis and
the widening division of castes. These are becoming potential threats to the
BJP ahead of elections. The BJP strategy is to attack the Congress for its
failure in the past 70 years; consolidations of the Hindu votes and communicate
the achievements of Modi government.
Fifthly,
economy is reviving which may be a relief for the Modi government. Multilateral
organizations like the World Bank and the IMF are predicting a sound revival
for the year 2019. On the ease of doing business, India has moved up to 42
places to reach the top 100 for the first time.
Sixthly,
both the Congress and the BJP will play the Hindutva card with the Congress
adopting a soft Hindutva line. Rahul Gandhi will continue his temple hopping.
Lastly,
both Modi and Rahul will need a new narrative to win. Whatever it may be, the
BJP is likely to emerge as number one party whether it gets the majority or not
and it will be invited to form the government first, as is the convention. (IPA Service)
The post 2019 No Cakewalk For Modi, But He Will Still Be NDA Face appeared first on Newspack by India Press Agency.