With the 2024 Lok Sabha election nearing culmination, a palpable fear gripping social and political circles is that like Donald Trump, the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi might refuse to relinquish office and create a constitutional crisis. The manner in which Modi is trying to fashion the impression that he is the face of modern India would win the election, even though his charisma has been on the decline, as was even recently avowed by the RSS, clearly underlines that he has been busy designing the blueprint of his future action for a while.
With the early voting trends indicating that Modi might be on his way out from office, the prime minister has upped the ante of his anti-democratic shenanigans. Early voting patterns and voters response giving a thumbs up to INDIA bloc, as manifest in the initial two phases of the polls, made it apparent that Modi has lost the battle.
Since then two developments have rocked the democratic boat in favour of the prime minister and his party. One, the NGO Association for Democratic Reform’s apprehension about possible replacement of electronic voting machines (EVM) citing the big increase in final voting percentage figures days after polling, and second, consistent claims by Modi of crossing the 400-seat Rubicon, have strengthened the trepidation that Modi is working on a bigger and more sinister plan to remain in power. Through his reiteration that he would get more than 400 seats underlines a psychological war. He is resorting to this strategy with the intent to hide mischief committed by the EC to rig the voting result and substantiate the impression that Modi has actually got peoples’ mandate and achieved the target of 400 seats.
The manner in which the electoral process is being subverted by Modi and his ilk, including the Election Commission, fears linger if Modi would emulate Donald Trump and not allow a peaceful transition of power, in case INDIA bloc has the peoples’ mandate. Modi may not leave office and make way for the new dispensation to take over. The general nervousness stems from the fact that Modi is known for using all kind of machinations to twist and break the rules to suit his needs. The people of India are witness to the dirty tricks he resorted to pull down elected governments in a number of states, including Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh. Modi does not believe in probity and transparency in public life.
The low voter turnout this Lok Sabha election has turned Modi skeptical of his own previous formula of rampant communal polarization, or Hindutva ultranationalism, to reap electoral dividends. EC too became alert to the lower polling figures only after the first two phases. Instead, Rajiv Kumar-led Election Commission swung into action and refused to share the absolute votes polled figures, giving only an approximate percentage, which curiously went up several notches after a morbid delay of several days. Alongside, instances of EVMs not reflecting the actual vote cast, wide-scale voter deletion or suppression, Muslims locked out of polling booths, are being reported, with EC eagerly casting a blind eye to it all.
Though the Supreme Court has tightened the noose around Rajiv Kumar and sought explanation as to what made him increase the voting percentage by 5.67 per cent and not publishing the voting data within 48 hours of polls closing, it has not succeeded in reassuring the people that Modi would make way for the new government. With Modi’s ruthless use of state agencies, even the ordinary voters are not feeling safe. Rajiv Kumar’s EC would not have dared to rig the election if the Supreme Court on April 26, had not dismissed ADR’s plea for return to ballot papers and given a clean chit to EVMs.
Moreover, the move to force the Election Commission to maintain high order of probity and transparency in the polling received a set back with Supreme Court on May 24 refusing to issue the Election Commission directions to upload polling station-wise voter turnout data on its website saying it would be difficult for the poll panel to mobilise manpower. The issue will be heard after the polling is over. Obviously it will cease to serve any fruitful purpose. EC will get the opportunity to manoeuvre the things. With the role of EC coming under scanner, it was imperative that utmost transparency should have been maintained in the matter of preserving turnout data.
Already the saffron mercenaries in complicity with the police have been forcing people from minority communities in various parts of the country, especially in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, to keep away from polling stations. They are even dispersing the voters standing in the queue by beating them up, threatening police action, or more violence. The desperation of saffron goons was visible in Chapra of Bihar.
Modi is not content with simply manoeuvring the election through Rajiv Kumar’s Election Commission; he has also been using the media, pliant academics, resource persons and event managers to manufacture the ambient mood that he was winning and would get more than 400. Famous poll strategist Prashant Kumar has become proactive once again and is going around impressing people that Modi will be back for a third consecutive time.
Few days back, an economist in his newspaper column, refuting all the perceptions that Modi was losing, emphatically mentioned that the prime minister continues to enjoy the trust of the people for his pro-people governance and would win the election hands down. He said that Modi will be back in power no matter even if the party loses as many as 100 seats; that people will opt for Modi, irrespective of their reservations and worries like unemployment and higher inflation. He even asserted that people are likely to pick Modi if the choice is between Modi and Rahul Gandhi. “As far as the BJP is concerned, there is no other jewel to compare to Modi. He is Kohi Noor. I have no doubt that people will opt for Modi, whatever their other reservations”.
What made these scholars and intellectuals to throw their support behind Modi? More than the issue of governance, it is the compulsion of preserving their class interests that made them support him. During the initial two phases, the inertia of the urban middle class as well upper middle class, to vote was quite evident. Modi’s think-tank believes that the intellectuals extending their support to Modi will motivate the urban voters and they will come out in large number during the last two phases.
Still, unfettered readings of voter sentiment strongly indicate that things are not going the BJP’s way. The public, it seems, has simply not been given enough reason to vote for the party a third time. Of course, they are scared of the future moves of Modi; yet they are sure in a country like India, any kind of replication of Trump-style show of insurrection will not work. What is reassuring is despite a serious resource crunch and a lack of cohesive election strategy, the INDIA coalition is gaining traction.
The lingering fear has also conjured many former bureaucrats, intellectuals, academics, retired army officers and social activists to get ready to hit the streets. Few days back, over 120 civil society organisations in Bengaluru came together to chalk out an action plan to protect India’s democracy, with its leaders pointing to the Election Commission’s “failures” that have raised concerns over the “possible manipulation” of the votes on counting day.
Under the banner of ‘Wake up Karnataka’, activists, former bureaucrats and experts held a six-hour long discussion to force the Election Commission (EC) accountable and discuss possible outcomes on the counting day. More meetings are planned in New Delhi and other places.
Briefing the media, political economist Parakala Prabhakar said such an event was necessitated by the EC’s inaction. “We have a serious and limited objective: that the people’s will should be reflected on the ballot, whatever that it is. If that were not to happen, the civil society will have to challenge it to assert the civic rights of the people,” he said.
He said: “The way the election commissioners were appointed by keeping the chief justice of India out of the selection committee had cast serious doubts about the impartiality of the EC. It is for the EC to establish that our doubts were unfounded.” He underscored that EC’s failure to take action against repeated violation of the model code of conduct by Modi and other leaders, its refusal to publish Form 17-C, its way of writing letters to the opposition political parties, do not give confidence to the general public.
Participants were of the view that elections in India never had the current cloud of doubts and suspicions which have arisen this time. Today, the question before the people is: democracy or dictatorship? A former senior IAS Devasahayam expressed apprehension: “EC’s stand against cross verification of votes with VVPAT could lead to massive stealing of the mandate of the people.” They also plan to conduct independent media polls to show the growing support for opposition states.
They strongly believed that there is a need to be responsible and accountable to the idea of democracy, freedom and fair play in constitutional processes, from election to the transfer of power. Farmer leader BadagalpuraNagendra said the election of 2024 is between the people of India and the dictator: “Dictators don’t accept defeat, they will try to avoid accepting the result. We will not allow that to happen.” (IPA Service)
