By Dr. Gyan Pathak
BJP has just won all 15 municipal corporations, 78 of the 84 municipalities, 33 of 34 district panchayats, and 220 of 260 taluka panchayats in Gujarat. No doubt, it is an impressive performance indicating its continued stronghold in the state, both in urban and rural areas. However, rising of the Congress almost from its ruins and AAP making significant inroads should be a serious concern for the ruling BJP, especially ahead of the Legislative Assembly Election in the state to be held by the end of 2027.
The elections were held across 9,900 seats in all local bodies. According to the latest data by the Gujarat Election Commission BJP won 6,472 seats. Congress has secured 1,412 seats, and AAP crossed 650-mark. These figures mask the BJP’s vulnerabilities which can be seen in the vote shares of BJP, Congress and AAP. Congress and AAP have emerged stronger than in 2021 as far as their votes share in concerned.
In Gujarat’s 15 municipal corporations, BJP bagged 59.36 per cent of votes, while Congress could get only 26.46 per cent and AAP 10.27 per cent. It shows BJP’s continued electoral dominance in the urban areas of the state, but it also shows significant vote share of Congress and AAP.
As for municipalities, the BJP’s performance was not so good. Its vote shared declined. It could get 52.51 per cent of votes in the municipal bodies’ election, while Congress share was 30.68 per cent. AAP preformed very poorly and could bag on 4.89 per cent of votes.
In district panchayats, the BJP bagged 52.37 per cent of votes, while the Congress got 33.7 per cent of votes and AAP secured 12.4 per cent of votes. BJP’s vote share in taluka panchayats was 51 per cent, while Congress was able to bag 32.89 per cent, and AAP got 12.67 per cent of votes.
The data shows that BJP’s support base in the big cities having municipal corporations is very high around 60 per cent but it declines in the range of about 51-52 per cent, which make it vulnerable in case Congress and AAP make alliance in the forthcoming Gujarat election. Both the parties contested in many seats in these elections in competition with each other, rather than with the BJP. It gave the BJP an edge.
For AAP, major gain was in the tribal belt in the Narmada’s hilly villages. AAP won the district panchayat which is a significant development against the BJP’s claim that the world’s tallest stature, the Statue of Unity, has transformed the socio-economic condition of the tribal region. AAP won 15 out of the 22 seats in the region. BJP had won 19 seats while Congress had won 2 seats in the 2021 election.
Nevertheless, AAP has also reasons to be worried since its urban presence has shrunk significantly compared to its performance during the 2021 elections, particularly in Surat. From 27 seats in 2021, the party is down to just 4 seats in 2026, marking a sharp decline.
The result has, however, boosted the moral of AAP because it won one district panchayat – Narmada – and 12 taluka panchayats for the first time.AAP has won almost 10 times of seats crossing the 650 mark as against 69 seats it had won in 2021, which indicates its much widened support base across Gujarat, both in the urban and rural areas. Party hopes to give a tough fight to the BJP in the Legislative Assembly election of Gujarat in 2027.
Congress in Gujarat also seems to be emerging from its ruins after the landslide victory of the BJP in 2022 elections. It gained significant wins in number of important cities and made inroads into the new urban areas and cities.
In Ahmedabad, especially Khadia ward, it was able to end decades of BJP’s dominance. In the Ahmedabad municipal corporation, it was even able to increase its tally from 24 in 2021 to 32 in 2026.
A significant development in Ahmedabad is that AIMIM lost two seats to Congress, which the congress has lost in last election. These seats are Jamalpur and Maktampura. It is important because it is an early indication that the Muslim electors may be returning to Congress and are in increasingly willing to vote unitedly to the party that may defeat the BJP.
Congress has increased its tally even in Rajkot from four to seven. People in the area where Congress won had suffered demolition drives. Congress has even opened its account in Surat where it had not even a single seat.
Congress has also significant gains in the nine newly formed municipal corporations. The party won 11 seats each in Vapi and Gandhidham. It won 8 seast in Karmasad.
Despite gains in its vote shares, the overall tally of Congress winning across the local bodies has declined. Congress has also reasons to be worried since it suffered losses in the rural areas of the state. Party’s tally in the district panchayats fell from 169 seats in 2021 to 135 seats in 2026. As for taluka panchayats, it could win only 1050 seats in 2026 as against 1252 seats in 2021. Nevertheless, the Congress hopes to finally emerge and will give direct and closer fight in the 2027 Vidhan Sabha election in Gujarat. (IPA Service)
