By Girish Linganna
On New Year’s Day, thousands of Turkish people took to the streets in Istanbul, shouting “Murderer Israel, leave Palestine.” This wasn’t the first large-scale demonstration in support of Palestine in Turkey since the Israel-Gaza conflict began on October 7 However, the large protest on January 1 2024, was sparked by provocative statements made by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Since he first assumed power over two decades ago, Turkey has consistently supported the Palestinian cause, including backing Hamas. However, even by Erdogan’s own bold approach, his recent comments were particularly strong. He compared the actions of Israel’s prime minister in Gaza to those of Hitler, suggesting they were no less severe.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responded sharply, accusing Erdogan of hypocrisy. He criticized Erdogan for carrying out genocide against the Kurds and for holding a world record in jailing journalists who criticize his government, stating Erdogan is hardly in a position to lecture Israel on morality.
Erdogan has drawn parallels to Nazi Germany before, but this latest exchange of harsh words highlights the deepening bitterness in Turkish-Israeli relations, which is a stark contrast to the significant improvements seen just a few months prior.
On January 2 2024, Turkey made a significant move against Israel by arresting 33 individuals suspected of being operatives for Israel’s Mossad intelligence service. The arrests were made in eight different provinces, involving Turkey’s own intelligence agency, MIT. This action was prompted by reports suggesting Israel planned to target members of Hamas, who were believed to be in various countries, including Turkey.
Since October 7, Turkey has increased its assistance to Gaza, including the transportation of numerous patients from Gaza to Turkey for medical care. The Turkish Health Minister personally escorted these patients during their journey from Egypt.
During the initial stages of the Hamas attacks on Israel, Erdogan spoke with restraint, advocating for calm on both sides. However, as Israel escalated its military response, Erdogan’s language grew more severe. He began referring to Hamas as “freedom fighters” and labelled Israel’s military actions as “genocide.”
According to Helin Sari Ertem, who spoke to the BBC and is an Associate Professor of International Relations at Istanbul Medeniyet University, Erdogan’s antagonistic stance towards Israel appeals to his political supporters in Turkey.
Helin Sari Ertem notes that the Palestinian issue is a significant matter for both Turkey and its people, spanning a wide range of political views. As a result, Turkish governments cannot view the Palestine-Israel conflict merely as an external policy matter, as it undoubtedly has a major impact on the country’s internal political landscape.
During the latter half of the 20th century, Israel and Turkey maintained strong economic and strategic ties, with Turkey being the first regional country to recognize Israel after its establishment. However, after Recep Tayyip Erdogan became Turkey’s leader in 2002, relations with Israel worsened, while those with Hamas improved. Erdogan invited Khaled Meshaal, the leader of Hamas at the time, to Turkey in 2006. By then, Hamas had been labelled a terrorist organization by Israel, the United States, and the European Union, among others.
In 2009, the initial major diplomatic rift between Israel and Turkey unfolded in the public eye when Erdogan abruptly left a World Economic Forum meeting in Davos. This incident occurred following a heated exchange with Shimon Peres, Israel’s President at the time, over Israeli air strikes in Gaza. After this confrontation, the Turkish leader declared he would never return to Davos, and he has stayed true to his word ever since.
However, only a year later, the situation escalated dramatically when the Mavi Marmara, a ship departing from Istanbul, Turkey’s capital, headed towards Gaza. This vessel was leading a group of boats filled with volunteers and humanitarian supplies, aiming to confront Israel’s naval blockade of the Gaza Strip.
The situation intensified when the Mavi Marmara did not comply with orders to stop, leading Israeli commandos to board the ship in international waters. This action resulted in the death of 10 Turkish nationals during the subsequent confrontations. As a result of this incident, Turkey severed its diplomatic ties with Israel for several years.
Ms. Sari Ertem points out that Turkey’s shift from aligning with Israel to supporting the Palestinians is influenced by the conservative and pro-Islamic base of Erdogan’s AKP party.
Ms. Sari Ertem suggests that while Erdogan’s backing of the Palestinians is genuine, it’s also a strategic move to appease conservative-nationalist factions. These groups felt the AKP’s initial response to the war was inadequate.
Ms. Sari Ertem believes that although Erdogan’s support for the Palestinians is heartfelt, it also serves to placate conservative-nationalist political groups. These groups were dissatisfied with the AKP’s initial reaction to the war’s early stages.
Ozgur Ozel, the leader of Turkey’s main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party, has urged the international community to take action for Gaza. Meanwhile, Meral Aksener, who heads the country’s second-largest opposition party, labelled the Israeli prime minister a “terrorist.” Nonetheless, Turkey’s support for Hamas has had repercussions for the country.
Turkey had only recently mended its strained ties with Israel last year, marked by both nations reinstating their ambassadors. However, within just a few months after this diplomatic renewal, the conflict broke out. This led to Turkey withdrawing its ambassador, while Israel’s ambassador left due to safety worries.
Giorgio Cafiero, the CEO of Gulf State Analytics, a geopolitical risk consultancy based in Washington DC, believes that President Erdogan is not expected to alter his current course. He emphasizes that Erdogan has his own domestic supporters and constituents whose expectations he cannot overlook, especially those from within Turkey and his political base. Cafiero also points out that Erdogan’s aspiration to be seen as a prominent Muslim leader is something he cannot disregard.
Ms. Sarı Ertem holds the view that the current discord between the nations won’t have severe repercussions. She notes that Turkey’s anti-Israel rhetoric, particularly pronounced during periods of significant Palestinian civilian casualties by Israel, seldom alters Turkey’s traditional foreign policy, which typically strives for equilibrium. She emphasizes that Turkey has consistently maintained at least economic ties with Israel, if not political ones. According to her, the history of Turkish-Israeli relations has demonstrated a notable resilience through various challenges and changes over time. (IPA Service)
(The author is a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru.)
