By K Raveendran
Friend Trump has given Modi a left-handed compliment by bracketing India with China and Russia for not being real with the Covid numbers.
“We don’t know how many people died of Covid-19 in China, Russia, India… because they do not give straight answers, they don’t give real numbers,” the US President said while debating with Republican candidate Joe Biden ahead of the November elections.
Trump may not be faulted for his comment as he is not wide off the mark, when it comes to the actual Covid numbers. But is more noteworthy is the eye on optics, which is what has driven the warmth in the relations between Modi and Trump. Both have a lot of use for such optics.
Modi has never lost an opportunity to use his friendship with Trump as a demonstration of global acceptance, which he probably places much above what he cares for domestic popularity that only counts during elections.
Trump has always used his love for Modi as a bridge to the Indian American community, which is traditionally believed to be sympathising with Democrats. But Biden opting for Indian origin Kamala Harris as his running mate, this calculation seems to have gone wrong. This frustration may have prompted his latest outburst.
A recent report about the battle ground states had, in fact, showed that Indian Americans, running into some four million, are switching over to the Republican party in significant numbers because in view of the Trump-Modi bonhomie. In the battleground states, they number 1.3 million as per the estimates of Indian Americans in the Democratic Party.
The optics apart, Trump may have spoken the truth about Covid in India. The Modi government has been very keen to show that things are under control and is widely believed to have held back information on vital statistics such as the actual death numbers or even the total size of the caseload from time to time. Now it has only the United States to beat in terms of the maximum number of cases. It already has the fastest growth rate in terms of the spread of the infection.
Only the other day, highly authentic sources such as The Lancet expressed doubts about the numbers put out by the Indian government. The highly rated journal questioned the transparency of Indian data on Covid cases and deaths, especially those underpinning the case fatality rate. It also questioned the case fatality rate of 1•8 percent, cited by the Indian authorities, as unrealistic. Even Indian experts have doubted the authenticity of these numbers.
There are serious doubts about the number of Covid deaths, as reported by the authorities as there is a great uncertainty over how deaths are accounted for. The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) guidelines stipulate that deaths of people with suspected or probable Covid should be included in mortality data, based on WHO ICD-10 codes. However, the guidelines are advisory and there is no clarity on whether the casualty numbers include suspected and probable cases.
In fact, public pressure is growing for more faithful reporting of Covid numbers as media as well as professional entities allege significant undercounting. There have also been charges that the number of tests are being limited to ensure a lower level of incidence.
The Lancet had actually highlighted the dangers of the Indian government’s policy of underreporting, saying that the government’s effort to present the prevailing situation with a too positive spin not only clouds reality but also hampers vital public health initiatives.
Perpetuating unrealistic claims or failing to honestly report negative news creates uncertainty among the public and health-care professionals, discouraging people from taking preventive action or taking public health messages seriously, the journal warned.
Professional circles have also questioned the Modi government’s overemphasis on containing negativity and rumour mongering as part of the strategy to fight the pandemic. This has even put professional scientific entities, including the ICMR, to growing embarrassment. There has even been a controversy surrounding a possible roll-out timeframe for the anti-Covid vaccine. (IPA Service)