By Debabrata Biswas from Boston
Exactly three days before the November 5 polls, the question who is going to win the 2024 presidential election in the USA is vexing the country as well as the outside world. All kinds of prognosticators – poll stars, academics or International odd makers are presenting their data and opinion about the outcome of the election in tandem.
But no one knows exactly what is going to happen on November 5 as tens of millions of early votes have already been cast with tens of millions still yet to vote in person on the Election Day. The whole country is anxiously awaiting the outcome amid an increasingly bitter political divide and significant stress among people about the nation’s future. As the unprecedented election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris comes to a close, experts say it is irresponsible for observers to foretell a winner. The race is very close ; the 50 – 50 contest has been largely unmoved by major news events so far , including Biden’s summer exit , Harris’ historic bid and two assassination attempts against Trump.
The US hasn’t had a double digit blowout White House race since 1984 when Republican incumbent Ronald Regan coasted to victory by winning 49 states out of 50 states against Democrat Walter Mondale. Elections have been closer since then, including the race in 2000 and 2016 where Democrats won the popular vote but Republicans won the electoral college and the presidency. The scenario has become more complex now, with a hyper competitive media landscape, pollsters often with political angles, pundits and even gamblers and nervous undecided voters. It’s very hard to give a preview what will happen.
Many pollsters have jumped into the prediction arena. Chief among them is ‘ Five thirty eight’ (538), the most popular database which currently favours Trump (51% – 49%) against Harris. But the site notes when the chances of winning hovers in the 50 – 50, it is a ‘ little better than a coin flip for the leading candidate’, and its founder Nate Silver, penned out a New York Times op-ed saying 50 – 50 is the only responsible forecast during this cycle.
And the models aren’t always right, such as in the 2012 election, when the then president Barack Obama defied the poll trajectory to defeat Republican Mitt Romey. Trump similarly overcome forecast that predicted Hillary Clinton would win in 2016. And in the era of disinformation, herds of pollsters with political bias are deceiving the predictive models to bulk up the polling average of their favourite parties and to inspire their base.
About 35 million Americans have voted early already in 2024, with Democrats holding slight edge, 41% versus 35% Republicans.
With 3 days still to go before November 5, Kamala Harris currently has 1.4% lead over Trump nationally (Oct.31) according to 538 and New York Times poll. As the final electoral college vote which ultimately matters in electing the president, the seven swinging or battle ground states will be the most important to watch .Those 7 states are Arizona, Georgia, Mitcigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
According to 538 daily poll tracker, Harris retains a narrow margin in Mitcigan and Wisconsin, while Trump holds a slight edge in Arizona and Georgia. In Pennsylvania, Trump has a narrow lead (1%) and both the candidates are even in Nevada and North Carolina. But an incident in Trump’s Madison square rally in N.Y last Sunday may change the scene considerably, specially in Pennsylvania and other swinging states.
At that event comedian Tony Hinchcliffe called Puerto Rico ‘ a floating island of garbage’. He also made crude and racial comments about Latinos and Black people. Trump who was present there didn’t oppose or condemn it. The Puerto Rican population in PA is about 5,000,000, they are the biggest share of Latino voters in PA. The Madison square comment disparged a slice of electorate that could tip a close election in battleground states. In all the states, however the candidates are within 2 points of each other, well within the poll’s margin of error, leaving each state a toss up just before the final vote.
It is important to note that while national surveys offer a trend of the popular vote nationwide, the ultimate result who will win the president’s post depends on electoral college vote. Every state has a fixed quota of electoral college representatives depending on the lawful census of that state. For example, Texas has 40, California 52 electoral college representatives, while Pennsylvania has 19. The total no. of electoral college is 538. Who wins 270 votes wins the presidency.
It happens that a candidate winning more electoral college vote than the other in spite of losing the popular vote, becomes the president. That happened in the case of President George .W. Bush in 2000 and Donald Trump in 2016. All states except Maine and Nebraska have a winner take all policy. That’s why the vote in the 7 swinging states are so important. All those states together have 93 electoral college votes. The presidency will be decided by those states which are neither Blue (Democrat) or Red ( Republican) and voters are mostly undecided and independent.
Any swing in voters mood, may tilt the result of those states. For example, in Detroit, Michigan, there is a major population of Palestinians and Arabs and they are deadly against Biden’s Israel – Gaza policy and are very angry about the Democrats, whom they generally gave their votes before. It should be a big concern for Kamala Harris. But the realization of the Palestinians that if Trump comes to power, he will give Netanyahu a freehand to destroy the Arabs, might make them to reconsider their decision not to vote Kamala Harris in favour of a third party candidate. That will make a huge difference in Mitcigan’s voting.
Amid these uncertainties, the predictions about the polls are becoming quite partisan. Psephology is being used to boost the moral and influence on the voters in partisan lines during the last phase of election. The stakes of the election are sky high and its outcome is not knowable in advance – a combination that most of us find discomforting. People crave for certainty and there’s just one place to look for it – in the data. But the truth is that the models that rely primarily on polling data to forecast the election results – are not foolproof.
Amidst these fluctuating poll predictions, one person, often called the Nostradamus of the polls remains firm in his prediction that Kamala Harris will win the presidential race. He is historian Allan Lichman who has correctly predicted the results of 9 out of 10 presidential election. He predicted Trump’s win in 2016 in spite of all other polls predicted Hillary Clinton’s win. His method of forecasting the race so accurately is known as ‘the keys to the White House’, a system devised with the Russian academic Vladimir Keilis Borok in 1981.
Lichman bases his prediction on 13 keys to the White House that are determined not by opinion polls but by true- false answers to the performance of the political party in power. These 13 keys are midterm gains, incumbency, primary contest, short term economy, long term economy, policy change, social unrest, White House scandals, incumbent’s charisma, challenger’s charisma, foreign policy failure and foreign policy success. Lichman gave his prediction in September and still firm on it. His prediction runs counter to the forecast by a top policy guru and world’s leading economist Christopher Barrud who said that the most probable outcome will be a Trump victory with Republicans also taking the Senate and the House.
Lichman has come under fire for his prediction notably with political pollsters like Nate Silver of 538, calling his method ‘totally arbitrary’. But Lichman refuses to back up. He said his system is based on history and is very robust. Lichman said “there’s always been an election anxiety, even dating back to 1960 when John F. Kennedy beat Richard Nixon in one of the closest election in American history.
But I have never seen such kind of election anxiety because a lot of people feel the future of the country is in the line here, that democracy in America could be a thing of the past.”
The stakes are so high. Not only the Americans, probably many people around the world are awaiting the result with bated breath. (IPA Service)