By Sagarneel Sinha
AGARTALA: The main Opposition Communist Party of India (Marxist) or the CPI(M)-led Left Front surprised the political observers in Tripura by declaring candidates for the Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council (TTAADC) polls and Dharmanagar bypoll even before the formal election notifications.
Days after Left’s declaration, the bypoll for Dharmanagar was announced by the Election Commission of India (ECI), with voting set for April 9 and counting to take place on May 4. The seat became vacant following the death of Bishwa Bandhu Sen, who was also the speaker of the state assembly.
On the other hand, the last ADC elections were held on April 6, 2021, with results declared on April 10. With the council’s tenure nearing its end, the Tripura State Election Commission is expected to announce the next schedule soon.
The Left Front, determined to put up a tough fight this time, announced the candidates without even waiting for the election commission to release the election schedule. The seat-sharing within the alliance followed the old formula with CPI(M) contesting 25 seats and leaving the remaining ones to its smaller allies. Communist Party of India (CPI), Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) and All India Forward Bloc (AIFB) will contest one seat each. Over 70% of the candidates are fresh faces. Forward Bloc’s candidate is yet to be announced. Of the 27 candidates, 17 are below the age of 50. Some of the young candidates are central committee members of Tripura Youth Federation, CPI(M)’s youth organisation for the state’s tribals.
While the Left opted for fresh faces in the ADC polls, it chose to stick with the old face for the Dharmanagar bypoll. It nominated former MLA Amitava Dutta, who won the seat for three consecutive times in 1993, 1998 and 2003 elections. After 2003, the party never won this seat, with Amitava himself losing twice in the 2008 and 2013 elections. While Amitava has been organisationally active, nominating an old face instead of a new one, may help the BJP in retaining the seat. Yet by not entering into an alliance with Congress, the Left gets an opportunity to test its organisational strength in the constituency.
Interestingly, CPI(M) without even holding any meeting with Congress decided to go solo and even declared candidates. The two parties — once arch-rivals — formally allied in the last assembly elections for the first time with the sole agenda to defeat the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The partnership was continued in subsequent elections. Congress supported CPI(M) candidates in the Dhanpur and Boxanapgar bye-elections, and in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, both the parties agreed to contest one seat each with Congress agreeing to support the CPI(M) for the Ramnagar bypoll. In the same year, both the parties had seat-sharing arrangements in many places for the three-tier panchayat elections.
With the BJP-led NDA being dominant in the state, this decision by the CPI(M) has raised questions about the prospects of an Opposition alliance. No doubt this unilateral decision has angered the Congress. The party’s prominent leader and Agartala MLA Sudip Roy Barman has criticised the CPI(M) and asked it to withdraw its candidate from the Dharmanagar seat, which was allotted to the grand old party in the last assembly elections. He also accused the CPI(M) for helping the BJP. This charge is similar to the recent accusation made by former Congress national president Rahul Gandhi in Kerala, though in a different political context.
The CPI(M), however, isn’t wrong to go alone in the upcoming ADC polls and Dharmanagar bye-election. The Left has its own reasons for “ekla cholo” in this northeastern state. An alliance with Congress often helps the latter without bringing significant gains to the Left. This is because a section of Congress voters hesitate to vote for the CPI(M)-led Left Front candidates while the Left supporters generally vote for Congress candidates. The Congress winning 3 seats — after drawing a blank in 2018 — was largely due to the support from the CPI(M). For instance, the grand old party wasn’t sure of winning the Banamalipur seat, which had been won by BJP leader and former chief minister Biplab Deb in 2018 elections, but managed to secure the seat with Left’s support. Notably, despite its weak organisational base, Congress initially demanded 25 seats in the alliance before settling for 13.
The 2023 state elections also showed that mere arithmetics — coming together of the Left and Congress — isn’t enough to dislodge the BJP-led NDA. For the Left to return back to power in its former bastion, where it ruled for 25 years continuously, it needs to strengthen its organisation on the ground. While the CPI(M) was criticised rightly for failing to effectively raise people’s issues during the first term of the BJP government, it has been observed that the Left party, through its various organisations, has been active on the ground during the second stint of the saffron government. As a result, it has been able to retrieve some of its lost ground, mostly in the plain areas dominated by the Bengalis, while the hill areas dominated by tribals still remain its weak point.
The Left knows that currently it lacks the organisational strength to return to power in the ADC, where it once ruled with a clean sweep. Its immediate objective, therefore, is to strengthen its organisation and to increase its vote share — and, if possible, secure a few seats — ahead of the 2028 state elections. Without significant gains in the hills, Left’s return to power remains unlikely. Tribals account for around 32% of the state’s population, and influence at least 35 of the 60 assembly constituencies. Importantly, around 88% of the state’s tribals reside in the TTAADC, highlighting the electoral significance of the body.
This explains the Left’s decision to go alone without Congress — almost a non-existent party in the hills — and field over 70% new faces. One of the main reasons for the Left’s weakness is the lack of new credible faces in the hills. With the two major players of the tribal belt — ADC’s ruling party, TIPRA Motha, and its ally BJP — engaged in a political tussle, the Left sees this as an opportunity to turn the situation to its advantage. This also explains why the Left chose to nominate candidates even before the formal declaration of the election schedule, giving its candidates more time to campaign. Clearly, the Left’s strategy indicates that it is serious this time about regaining its lost ground in the tribal belt ahead of the 2028 elections.
Interestingly, former chief minister Manik Sarkar was initially hesitant for an alliance with the Congress in the 2023 state elections before eventually accepting it. However, during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Manik Sarkar-led faction was against alliance with the Congress. However, the state secretary Jitendra Chaudhury-led faction got the support of the majority within the state party committee. Manik Sarkar wasn’t seen campaigning for the Congress candidate in the Tripura West constituency, though he campaigned vigorously for the CPI(M) candidate in the Tripura East constituency.
It now appears that even the Jitendra Chaudhury-led faction has understood the limitations of an alliance with the Congress. The CPI(M)’s decision is therefore a necessary course correction by the state unit. More importantly, it offers the Left an opportunity to test its organisational strength ahead of the major electoral battle of 2028. (IPA Service)
