By Sagarneel Sinha
AGARTALA: Despite being the ruling party of the northeastern state of Tripura, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has once again failed to come to power in the Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council (TTAADC) with TIPRA Motha sweeping the elections, which were held recently. In the last elections held in 2021, the saffron party secured 9 seats officially, with a rebel candidate winning an additional seat and raising its tally to 10.
However, this time its tally dropped to 4 seats, while Motha increased its count from 18 to 24 in the 28-member tribal body. Its vote share rose from 46.7% to 57.33%. Although the saffron party increased its vote share to 27.3% from 18.73, this is mostly because it contested all the seats alone unlike last time when it contested on 14 seats and left the remaining ones for its ally Indigenous Peoples Party of Tripura (IPFT). With no alliance this time, the BJP got back its votes which were transferred to its ally IPFT candidates last time as a result of the alliance.
Apart from this, the saffron party didn’t face rebellion unlike last time when some leaders contested as independents against IPFT candidates. A BJP rebel Bhumika Nanda Reang contesting as an Independent even won from the Ganganagar-Gandachhera seat — and later joined the saffron party. As a result of this, Independents polled 6.97% while in this election their vote share reduced to 1.23% with a larger portion of the BJP’s vote consolidating under the party’s official vote share. Having said this, this can’t be denied that the party’s vote share did increase but it was marginally less than it expected.
For the BJP, this isn’t just another setback. This setback signals the party’s weaker appeal among the tribals as well as its weak organisational structure in the tribal belt. The support of tribals, who make up nearly 32% of the state’s population, is crucial for securing political power in the northeastern state. They influence at least 35 out of 60 assembly constituencies. Of these 35 seats, 20 are reserved for the Scheduled Tribes (STs).
It has to be mentioned that in the last assembly elections of 2023, the BJP just secured a simple majority by securing 32 seats and of these, 7 from the seats reserved for the STs. Given the dominance of the Motha as recently seen in the ADC polls, retaining even these 7 ST seats seems to be very challenging for the saffron party. As a result, the party’s effective contest would be limited to 40 assembly constituencies, where it would face direct competition from Communist Party of India (Marxist) or CPI(M). In such a scenario, securing a simple majority on its own would be difficult for the saffron party.
While TIPRA Motha, led by royal scion Pradyot Kishore Debbarma, remains a key ally of the BJP, its relations with a section of the state leadership of the saffron party — particularly with the fraction led by chief minister Manik Saha — has shown signs of strains. This was witnessed during the ADC poll campaign when Manik Saha and Pradyot Debbarma took jibes at one another, despite Motha having two ministers in the Manik Saha-led government.
This poll drubbing also marks a personal loss for chief minister Manik Saha as he led the party’s campaign across the tribal belt with the aim to bring the party into power in the tribal body. However, with the party seeing reduction of seats, knives are out within the party against the chief minister, who is accused by the other factions for ignoring Tripura West Lok Sabha MP and former chief minister Biplab Deb, and former union minister Pratima Bhoumik. Both these top leaders remained inactive during the poll campaign when Manik Saha was busy touring the tribal areas. It is an open secret that both Biplab and Pratima are aspirants for the chief minister post. After the results, supporters and workers belonging to Biplab and Pratima were seen taking jibes at Manik Saha on social media.
What makes matters worse for the BJP and particularly Manik Saha is the post-poll violence that occurred in many places of the tribal-belt. According to a report by Times of India, more than 1000 BJP workers had fled their homes following post-poll violence allegedly done by TIPRA Motha activists. While this incidents of post-poll violence point towards Motha’s attempt to consolidate its hegemony through fear in the tribal belt, it also point towards the failure of the state government to maintain law and order. Since the police department falls under Manik Saha’s jurisdiction, the situation directly reflects a failure of leadership on his party. This also provides a weapon to anti-Manik Saha factions to press for the demand of changing the chief minister of the state before the party’s central leadership.
The TTAADC results have cast doubt on BJP’s ability to form the government on its own in the state. On one hand, the results have increased Pradyot’s bargaining power vis-à-vis the BJP; on the other side, it has strengthened the anti-Manik Saha camp, potentially making the chief minister politically more vulnerable. Much now depends on the political acumen of the saffron party’s central leadership in navigating these challenges and retaining its hold over the state. (IPA Service)
