By Dr. Gyan Pathak
The political tremors emanating from Congress setback in Haryana assembly polls , was immediately felt in Maharashtra, since its current Vidhan Sabha is to expire on November 26, 2024, election for which is likely to be announced by the Election Commission of India anytime soon. Congress being one of the three major constituents of Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) in Maharashtra, the party’s losing a winning election battle in Haryana deeply affected its chief ally Shiv Sena (UBT) prompting them to criticise Congress for the lapses while Congress itself is clueless as its allegation “Congress has been made to lose, party has not lost” suggests.
Nevertheless, the statements being made by Congress allies in Maharashtra are significant since forthcoming state election is crucial for INDIA bloc in fight against the BJP, which has just been able to reverse its political decline in Haryana within a very short period of 4 months since June 4, the day on which Lok Sabha election results were announced. All 10 Lok Sabha seats were won by BJP in 2019, but had lost 5 of them to Congress in 2024.
BJP had suffered a similar decline also in Maharashtra. The party had lost its 14 seats to INDIA bloc (called MVA in Maharashtra) allies and total loss to NDA was 24 in 2024 compared to 2019. Now the reversal of BJP’s decline in Haryana to a win, has brought a pertinent question in the minds of the people and political leaders of Maharashtra–Can BJP do it in Maharashtra also?
Right answer to the question is in the future’s womb, but the Haryana developments have caused two sets of ripples – one among the BJP and NDA allies and the other among the INDIA bloc allies.BJP rank and file have been re-energised by the spectacular Haryana win of the party and the effectiveness of the party’s strategies even amidst the countless odds including very high level of anti-incumbency being reflected in Haryana results where 8 of their 14 ministers of the state lost. BJP’s macro and micro level political strategies in Haryana have bolstered not only the hope of the party rank and file in Maharashtra but also their allies Shiv Sena (Shinde) and NCP (Ajit Pawar).
Though the credit of Haryana win of BJP goes to its excellent political strategy and RSS organisational prowess, it was also buttressed indirectly by the strategic Congress faults – such as overconfidence of the Congress leadership regarding its perceived certainty of winning in Haryana; serious level of infighting; putting all its eggs in one basket (i.e. over reliance on one leader and group within the party ignoring others); and failure in containing infighting. All these symptoms are there in the Maharashtra Pradesh Congress, that needs to be tackled effectively if Congress does not want to see similar fate in Maharashtra too.
However, matters do not end here, because any weakness of the Congress in Maharashtra may adversely affect the political fortunes of MVA and its allies, who are aiming at throwing the NDA government out of power in Maharashtra, as the Congress was aiming at throwing BJP out of power in Haryana.
It comes as great relief to the MVA allies – Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (Sharad Pawar) –that they are in seat sharing arrangement with Congress, unlike in Haryana, where state Congress lobbies did not allow Congress-AAP-SP alliance despite Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s push for an alliance, which according to many political analysts contributed in the Congress setback at a time when the INDIA bloc still needed joint battle and strategies to take on the BJP.
This view got reflected in even Sanjay Raut’s statement, the Shiv Sena (UBT) no 2 after Uddhav Thackeray and his confidante, who said, “No INDIA gathbandhan in Haryana… Congress leaders were overconfident. Samajwadi Party or AAP could have been accommodated and the results would have been different.”
Nevertheless, Raut said that Haryana election results may not impact ties in Maharashtra though he went on warning the Congress leadership and his allies to “learn from Haryana results.” Even the mouthpiece of Shiv Sena (UBT) has urged the Congress in its editorial to pay attention to its grassroots, pointing to the BJP’s “strong organisation and strategy” adding “The people of Maharashtra will not follow the path of Haryana … and the MVA will win.” Marathi public opinion is against Modi, Shah, Devendra Fadnavis, and Eknath Shinde, it says, “Our alliance will win in Maharashtra … but Congress leaders in the state have a lot to learn from Haryana.”
Congress setback in Haryana is being deeply analysed not only at the level of Central Congress leadership in Delhi but also in the Maharashtra state level. Additionally, Shiv Sena (UBT) and the NCP (Sharad Pawar) have been putting their strategists to look into the aftermath of Haryana development so that they can adopt an appropriate strategy in Maharashtra.
Maharashtra has special importance in the national politics since it is the financial capital state of the country. The state is the second largest in terms of sending MPs in the Parliament of India, and provides largest financial supports to political parties too. Ruling the state is thus very important for any political party or combination.
Lok Sabha Election 2024 result shows that Maharashtra is likely to witness a very close contest between MVA (INDIA bloc) and Mahayuti (NDA). Though BJP had been able to break Shiv Sena and NCP into two each, and allied with revolting Shiv Sena (Shinde) and NCP (Ajit Pawar) to rule the state, it seriously suffered in the Lok Sabha election. The result shows that INDIA bloc was able to gain lead in 151 Vidhan Sabha segments out of 288, while the NDA established its lead in only 128. Though INDIA bloc has clear upper hand as of now, Haryana setback suggest that it can’t afford complacency in fight against BJP. (IPA Service)