By Dr. Gyan Pathak
Only a day after announcement of the Census 2027, the Union Ministry of Home said on June 5, that the census was put off due to the COVID-19 pandemic and its “aftershock”. How can the Centre say this when it went on conducting many other surveys, mass political rallies, and elections in the country? Census was actually singled out for delay, a delay of six years, obviously strategically. Serious concerns have been raised over the delay and on several other issues, the most serious being related to delimitation.
The Union Ministry of Home has said that the Home Minister Amit Shah has clarified on many occasions that the concerns of southern states will be addressed at an appropriate time, and that the ministry has also sought to address concerns raised by Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M K Stalin about census linked delimitation exercise.
What is the concern related to delimitation? The constitution of India mandates that the next delimitation will be based on population figures from the first Census after 2026. Had the Census not been delayed beyond 2026, it would have not been possible for Modi government to complete the intended delimitation process by 2028 just before the announcement of the Lok Sabha General Election 2029.
Lok Sabha Election 2029 is crucial for the BJP’s Hindutva agenda. BJP is a dominant political force in the Hindi heartland states, where population has registered a phenomenal rise. As per the last delimitation order of 1971, the population of 10 lakh per constituency formed the basis of delimitation. Lok Sabha election 2024 data shows that there were 17.84 lakh voters per Lok Sabha Constituency on a projected population of 25.8 lakh.
The Centre has not said anything specific, but the new parliament building has 888 seats. The Centre therefore can’t decide for one MP in 15 lakh population, since it would increase the seats to 942. If one MP for 20 lakh population is decided then there would be 707 seats. On projected population of 142 crore, the number of Lok Sabha constituencies would rise to 848. In that case, the seats in Uttar Pradesh would increase from 80 to 143, Bihar from 40 to 79, Rajasthan from 25 to 50 and Madhya Pradesh from 29 to 52. For southern states – in Tamil Nadu it would increase from 39 to 49, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana from 42 to 45, Karnataka from 28 to 41, and in Kerala the seats would remain at 20.
This prospect has made southern states very much concerned since their representation in the Lok Sabha would be proportionately diminished compared to Hindi heartland states, where BJP has strong support base. It is feared that on the strength of the Hindi heartland, the BJP would be able to establish its government permanently, subjugating all other regions of the country.
The reservation of seats for women, SCs, and STs is also linked to delimitation exercise. Modi government intends to implement 33 per cent reservation for women in Legislative Assemblies for States and Lok Sabha by 2029. The Centre is yet to clarity about its plan on delimitation, though Tamil Nadu Chief Minister has raised the delimitation issues again.
As per the announcement, the Census with caste enumeration will be carried out in 2027 with the reference date of October 1, 2026 in snow-bound areas such as Ladakh, Jammu, Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand, and March 1, 2027 for the rest of the country. The details of the census exercise are being worked out which also needs to address several other concerns.
Census will be digitally conducted for the first time in the country purportedly for faster data gathering and its accessibility. It may make the work of analysis easier. However, there will be heightened concerns regarding privacy and data theft.
Another concern is related to the proposed caste census, and the way it would be conducted. There is no clarity on this issue at present, though the caste enumeration is a double-edged sword. It is a very sensitive issue on which clarifications are required, more so because it has a potential for further social segmentation. Methodology of enumeration of castes need thorough discussions with the stakeholders, for which greater transparency is required. Every person will be required to tell one’s religion and caste, but it is easier said than done, since no religion other than Hinduism, is inherently divided by caste, but practically have.
For example, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has said that the caste census will greatly benefit the indigenous Muslim community by giving them formal recognition of their independent identity – distinct from broader religious classifications and migratory groupings.”
There are many misgivings and anxieties at present, since the findings of the caste census, if published before the Lok Sabha election 2029, would impact the election results.
Another concern is related to the National Register of Citizens (NRC). There is not any word from the Central government yet on this issue, however, it had been reported last year that the next census would include an exercise to update the National Population Register (NPR), which would be the first step for the establishment of the NCR. It is still uncertain if government would develop Census 2027 as a comprehensive citizen registry. There are much anxieties over this issue, which also needs clarification from the Centre.
It would have been better if the Centre starts consultations with all stakeholders now, for the sake of transparency on conducting Census 2027, to dispel misgivings and anxieties, and to address the concerns raised. (IPA Service)
