By Rabindra Nath Sinha
May 30 marks the launch of SIR in strife-scarred Manipur, where Assembly elections ‘under normal circumstances’ are due between late February and mid-March 2027, SIR, therefore, is preparatory to constituting the 60 member-House in this north-eastern state, where ethnic conflict of alarming proportions on the issue of ST status for the majoritarian Valley-based Meiteis, had broken out on May 3, 2023 causing serious loss of life and property and leaving thousands of people displaced. Which means the state was in turmoil barely six weeks after the new Bharatiya Janata Party-led coalition ministry assumed office on March 21, 2022.
For chief minister N Biren Singh, it was the beginning of the second consecutive term. Along with him, five other MLAs had then been sworn in. After failing to reconcile the deep-rooted rivalry between the Meiteis and the hill-based Kuki-Zos, the Centre brought the state under President’s rule on Thursday, February 13, 2025 — four days after Biren resigned on February 9, Sunday.
Strenuous efforts by the Centre and the BJP top brass led by Union home minister Amit Shah to shorten the spell of President rule were of no avail. It lasted for 356 days [Parliament duly passed a six-month extension resolution between July and August, 2025]. A sort of understanding between the warring sides facilitated termination of President’s rule, reactivation of the Assembly kept under suspended animation and installation of a ministry headed by a Meitei leader of standing Yumnam Khemchand Singh and including two deputy chief ministers – one each from among the Kuki MLAs and Naga members – on Wednesday, February 4 this year. All the steps happened in quick succession in a matter of hours that day.
The SIR schedule announced by the state’s chief electoral officer Arun Kumar Sinha is : commencement May 30,2026 ; draft electoral rolls publication July 5 and publication of final electoral rolls September 6. July 1 is to serve as the qualifying date for the revision. CEO Sinha discussed the matter with the representatives of political parties on May 16.
All this sounds okay on paper and signifies pious intention of the Election Commission of India. If everything goes through as per the blue-print, it will mark a major step towards normalcy in the strife-scarred state. But in the prevailing circumstances in Manipur, serious questions arise. First, whether the SIR exercise can be conducted as perfectly as possible ? Secondly, whether the Khemchand ministry can have a smooth run till the electoral exercise is over between the last week of February and second week of March 2027 ? A more direct question, in reality, has to be whether the ministry will survive ? The third question that derives from the second is : whether the state will have another spell of President’s rule ? It is to be noted that the festival of parliamentary democracy is due in Manipur just about nine months hence.
From May 3, 2023 onwards, the authorities In New Delhi and Imphal and the civil society organizations (CSOs) in Manipur were required to deal with two fronts – one of the Meiteis, the other of the Kuki-ZOs. From January this year a third front, that of the Nagas, slowly emerged with strong antagonistic stance towards the Kuki-Zos. Which simply means it slowly assumed the proportion of an inter-tribal conflict ; though not on a large-scale initially.
But, sporadic violence, drunken browls, encroachment on respective “ancestral lands”, burning of houses and a few instances of ambush and abduction added to the delicate tasks of the security apparatus in the Kuki-Zo-dominated Kangpokpi and Churachandpur districts and the Naga-majority districts of Ukhrul and Noney. Senapati and Kamjong – the other Naga strongholds – too have been affected. But, matters climaxed on May 13, Wednesday when three pastors, who the Kuki-Zos claimed belonged to their tribes, were killed. The Kuki-Zos alleged the killers belonged to the armed Naga group, Zeliangrong United Front, but one faction of ZUF (Kamson) denied the allegation.
But, there was a twist in the tale The Thadou tribe leaders, who reiterate times without number that the Thadous are not Kukis, rejected the Kuki-Zo suggestion that asserted that the slain pastors belonged to the Thadou Baptist Church. Ground realities right now indicate they been able to establish their claim. Meanwhile the number of persons held hostage on both sides totalled more than 40. With the help of CSOs and persons held in esteem the administration succeeded in arranging the release of 28 persons — 14 from each side – under the hostage for hostage formula. The United Naga Council (UNC) headed by NG Lorho, who has been demanding the release of six Nagas abducted in Konsakhul village in Kuki-Zo stronghold of Kangpokpi district, has been assured by the chief minister that the case would be remitted to the National Investigation Agency.
Not to lag behind, the Kuki outfits organised shutdowns to secure the release of 14 Kuksi including three minor students, who they claimed, had been abducted bt the Nagas. UNC, on their part, held economic blockades, in addition to seeking the intervention of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in reining in Kuki armed groups operating under the Suspension of Operations arrangement and launch a drive to evict members of the Kuki National Army (Burma) and People’s Democratic Front (anti-Junta Myanmar group).
The memorandum to PM also raised the issue of the 2015 Framework Agreement and sought satisfactory culmination of the pending Naga matters. KukiInpi Manipur and Kuki Women Organisation for Women launched agitations on May 16, Saturday in Churachandpur and Kangpokpi districts in support of their various demands. In their letter to Shah, there was a new demand – that Manipur again be brought under President’s rule. KIM president Ajang Khongsai pointed out that the captivity of innocent civilians was not merely unlawful “but an act of terror against a people”.
Both Kim and the ladies’ outfit argued for reimposition of President’s rule as the answer of the moment. Further complicating the situation is the demand made Manipur Naga Youth Organisation for the resignation of Kuki deputy chief minister Nemcha Kipgen contending that her husband Semtinthang Kipgen heads a militant outfit Kuki National Front (Presidential) and was responsible for abduction. Moreover, the Naga youth unit alleged that Ms Kipgen had misused funds meant for tribal welfare. (IPA Service)
