By Gyan Pathak
Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh were two legislative assemblies that were to expire on February 18 and January 1, 2023 respectively, the elections for which were held in November and December. BJP swept Gujarat but lost Himachal Pradesh, and thus the party begins the year 2023 with its political manoeuvring capability bruised that may not be working across the states. Congress snatched Himachal Pradesh from the BJP and AAP successfully entered the BJP’s political forte Gujarat for the first time. Thus, the Congress and AAP in particular, and the political parties in opposition in general, are beginning the year with greater political aspirations.
As the year 2023 begins , political parties and analyst are pointing out that Narendra Modi’s charisma is on the wane and has ceased to be effective across the states. Secondly, Modi-Shah duo’s political strategies have some faultlines that can be used to successfully break the BJP’s political forte that has recently been believed impregnable. However, both the political aspirations and manoeuvring capabilities would be put on the election touch stone of seven state election this year, which are considered to be semi-final for the grand general election of 2024 which would finally decide the fate of the running and opposition political parties as well as of the nation for the next term of five years.
Meghalaya legislative assembly is to expire on March 15, Nagaland on March 12, Tripura on March 22, and Karnataka on May 24. Thus, elections of these four state’s legislative assemblies are to be held in the first half of 2023. The second half of 2023 would witness state election of Mizoram whose legislative assembly is due to expire on December 17, 2023. Terms of the legislative assemblies of Madhya Pradesh is expiring on January 6, 2024, Rajasthan on January 14, 2024, and Telangana on 16 January 2024, Chhattisgarh on January 3, 2024, and therefore elections to these states would also be held towards the end of 2023. State elections of these nine states are important because they send 116 members in the Lok Sabha out of 543.
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi is on Bharat Jodo Yatra. He is slowly but surely evolving as a stronger opposition leader than it has been expected so far, because he has been labelled as “pappu” ie merely an innocent “child in politics” by the BJP. However, one can see his coming of age in politics as he referred that people had also projected her grandmother Indira Gandhi as “gungigudiya” ie a dumb doll.
Obviously the situation has been changing fast in favour of Rahul Gandhi, both in terms of support base among voters and among other opposition political parties. His Bharat Jodo Yatra has been attracting huge crowds and important personalities from all walks of life and disciplines including economy, politics and business. He has been earning praise even from unexpected corners, both overtly and covertly. The change seems to be on the horizon, or else Gautam Adani had not even praised Congress Prime Ministers of the country at this time when his friend PM Narendra Modi is preparing for perhaps toughest political fight in his career as a politician in the last two decades.
While praising Bharat Jodo Yatra, Shiv Sena’s Sanjay Raut has rightly observed that 2022 was a new avatar of Rahul Gandhi. “If this continues in 2023, then there may be a political change in 2024,” he said amid talks of Rahul Gandhi becoming the opposition’s PM candidate in the 2024 general election.
Former Madhya Pradesh chief minister Kamal Nath had recently said that Rahul Gandhi will be the opposition’s prime minister candidate for the 2024 Lok Sabha election. “Rahul Gandhi does not do politics for power, but for the people of the country,” he said.
Acceptability of Rahul Gandhi has been increasing among the opposition political party that can be seen in statements of their leaders, such as Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who is said to have secret ambition of becoming Prime Minister, has said that he is open to the idea of Rahul Gandhi as the PM candidate in 2024 election. “We have no problem with it … When all opposition parties sit together and talk, then we decide on everything,” he has said.
Rahul Gandhi, on his part, has given proof of his maturity in a press conference, when he said he liked and respected the regional opposition parties and feelt that the role of the Congress was to provide a national framework to these regional parties where there was mutual respect.
These statements are significant for several reasons including strengthening the grand political alliance of opposition parties to take on the BJP and Modi-Shah duo. The year 2023 has begun with a conducive opposition politics in the country.
Modi-Shah duos political strategy and manoeuvring capability would be put to test in almost all states going to poll in 2023. Toughest challenge would be in Karnataka. The state is fighting a border issue with Maharashtra. BJP is ruling in both the states having opposite interests. There is also infighting in the BJP. Congress and JD(S) alliance is emerging stronger.
Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh are being ruled by Congress, and barring a few incidents of infighting, the party seems to be in firm control. BJP will have tough time in both the states. Even in Madhya Pradesh there seems to be anti-incumbency against the BJP. It is precisely due to this reason BJP was seen fuming with desperation against the Congress when it was suggested that Congress would sweep the state election. BJP tried its best to penetrate in Telangana recently through defection but failed. TRS is still strong to protect its citadel.
2023 is clearly bringing a touchstone on which the BJP and the opposition would test their worth and capabilities while they would be aspiring for winning the 2024 Lok Sabha election. (IPA Service)
