By Satyaki Chakraborty
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva took office SundayJanuary1for a third term as Brazil’s president, in a ceremony marked by the absence of his predecessor Jair Bolsonaro and violent demonstrations by far right supporters in different parts of the country.
The 77-year-old ex-metalworker, who previously led Brazil from 2003 to 2010, took the oath of office before Congress, vowing to “maintain, defend and obey the constitution” as he returns to lead Latin America’s biggest economy after a bitterly divisive election in October. The event was austere and it marked the remarkable comeback for Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to the presidential palace within less than five years after being imprisoned on politically motivated corruption charges.
The supporters of the newly elected president expressed their sigh of relief on Sunday as finally Bolsonaro left Brazil for Florida in USA without trying to repeat any Trump like behaviour. But he till now refuses to officially recognise the victory of Lula despite the Election Commission rejecting all his postelection appeals. At one time, Lula and his party compatriots were afraid that the defeated president will start a civil war to resist change of presidency. That finally did not occur giving relief to the anxious Brazilians.
Thousands of supporters of Lula attended the victory ceremony and the leftwing cultural workers of Brazil held a series of programmes to celebrate Lula win. Foreign dignitaries including 19 heads of state were in attendance as Lula, who previously led Brazil through a poverty eradication programme from 2003 to 2010, took the oath of office for a new four-year term. Apart from many Latin American country heads, president of Germany, Portugal and the King of Spain attended the ceremony.
Lula took over in Brazil amidst Brazil’s own economic woes as also recent setback to the left wing regimes of Latin America which came to power in the recent years. In Peru, the elected president in 2022 general elections Pedro Castillo has been arrested in corruption charges and removed from power. The vice president Dina Boluarte has been nominated as the new president. Castillo is a pro people leader and he was planning to make lot of changes in favour of the underprivileged, but he did not consult properly his allies and took some decisions unilaterally making him vulnerable. At a time, when the Left was hoping for a transformation in Peru, this is a setback.
Similarly in Argentina, the vice president Kichener has been arrested and removed for corruption charges. She belongs to the Peronist Party and has been in the forefront being the president earlier. This is also a big setback in the context of the next national elections in the country. The economy in Argentina is yet to come out of the crisis andthis moment, this political shock has weakened President Fernandez’s government in 2023.
The Latin American experts expect both political and economic instability in the region as the left forces are still trying to consolidate in the countries they have been ruling. Further, the far right and the other antileft forces have gained some strength due to the failure of some of the regimes to improve the ground situation affecting the common people…Lula has got wide experience in economic management. It is expected that he will be more cautious this time and take steps which will help in improving the economic situation in Brazil which has been in very bad shape during the previous regime due to the impact of Covid 19 on the health of the people as also economy..
Experts point out that the global macroeconomic and geopolitical environment is unlikely to improve much, in 2023 which will impact the region deeply. Mediocre growth in Latin America—currently expected to fall to a meagre 1.7% in 2023, according to the IMF—is likely to keep public discontent high and the approval ratings of the region’s leaders low. This will increase the political costs of necessary fiscal adjustments, so most leaders will likely delay them or abandon them altogether, economists point out.
The political situation in other countries of the region is equally under strain. In El Salvador, the political alternative to the president is not there even though there are enough developments about his gross undemocratic actions. Political tensions will also increase in Argentina, Paraguay and Guatemala as they prepare to hold elections amid major corruption allegations against the ruling party leaders. Elections are due in Argentina in October 2023. The ruling combination has to do a lotto improve its image for winning the elections, otherwise, the right will takeover. In the neighbouring Paraguay, on the other hand, the leftist opposition has a fighting chance against the ruling Colorado Party which is enmeshed in corruption scandals
Guatamela, Nicaragua and Venezuela belong to a different category. The elected presidents are known for resorting to strong arms tactics against the opposition while continuing with the programmes for improving the lot of poor. Of late, the political position of the president Nicholas Maduro of Venezuela has improved with the rebel president propped by the far right derecognized by the opposition. Maduro has opened dialogue with the opposition. That is a good opportunity for the Venezuelan government to prove its credentials.
In all, the Latin American political scenario is not one dimensional now and the trends may take turn against the left to some extent in 2023. In the last fifteen years, fifteen rules governments have been deposed in the region, many of them by the second pink tide. Latin American left leaders are saying that the second pink tide is more focused and led by mature personalities. But the latest developments indicate that the ruling coalitions are lacking in cohesion and not enough attention is being given to the expansion of the popular base by the left to tight the burgeoning right.
In the year 2023, the main task of the Latin American Left is to strengthen the unity of the allies in the ruling coalition.. In the countries, where the right has been defeated, many of them still control the national assemblies and the media. The fight for the Left is very tough and they should be aware of the enormity of the challenge. (IPA Service)
