The second conclave of the opposition parties is now scheduled to be held in Bengaluru on July 17 and 18 to take forward the decisions arrived at the first Patna conclave of 16 parties held on June 23. The Bengaluru conclave hosted by the Congress Party will have representation from eight more parties compared to the first meeting and that signals that despite setback to the Sharad Pawar led NCP in Maharashtra due to BJP machinations, the call for all out unity against the ruling BJP before the Lok Sabha elections in 2024, is getting wider response.
What is of further significance is the increasing confidence shown by the Congress leadership in recent days in meeting the challenge of the BJP in the coming elections to the five state assemblies by the end of this year. Congress high command has been able to successfully settle the differences in the state units of Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh and in the BJP ruled Madhya Pradesh, the state Congress led by the veteran Kamal Nath is battle ready to give a big fight to the BJP. In all, the Congress as an organisation is looking more spirited having strong sense of direction compared to six months back. All these are positive developments for the opposition unity as the Congress is the major national party capable of challenging the BJP in largest number of states.
Now coming to the issues under discussion at this conclave, the opposition leaders have to finalise the name of the alliance which can be either Patriotic Democratic Alliance or Progressive democratic Alliance — in both cases PDA superseding the earlier United Progressive Alliance (UPA) led by the then Congress president Sonia Gandhi. The PDA has to play a crucial role in the coming eight months before the Lok Sabha elections, especially regarding the seat sharing formula among the partners.PDA must be headed by a leader who commands national appeal and expertise in handling negotiations. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar or Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge can be considered for this position taking into account their acceptability.
Among the opposition leaders NCP supremo Sharad Pawar is most veteran but he has to be fully involved in his state in rejuvenating the NCP and strengthening the MVA. This will be a crucial task requiring full time attention taking into account that Maharashtra has got 48 seats in the Lok Sabha. Senior Pawar has to play his role to ensure maximum win for the MVA in the coming polls. The political situation in the state is in a flux and the Maratha strongman has the capability of turning the tide in favour of MVA if he works hard.. It is in the interests of the opposition that Sharad Pawar is freed from PDA responsibilities at national level.
The proposed PDA must have a core committee of senior leaders who will really play the role at ground level in sorting out the vexed issues which will be common in view of the differing approaches of the participating parties. Then the campaign issues will have to be worked out on the basis of a minimum programme. Already the 1996 programme of the United Front government and the 2004 programme of the UPA are there. Those have to be updated only taking into account the current issues which are dominating the people’s minds.
Then finally, there has to be some discussions on the principles on the basis of which seat sharing formula will be evolved. This part will be a long term process but the beginning has to be made in this Bengaluru meeting and then this can be taken forward at the next conclave. The best formula for seat sharing is to divide the states into four categories taking into account the strength of the respective opposition parties. The first category will be the states where the Congress will be the leading party and it will have talks with the others, if needed taking in view who has the best chance of defeating the BJP candidate.
There will be 15 such states. These are Karnataka, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Haryana, Himachal, Uttarakhand, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram, Manipur and Goa. There are 151 Lok sabha seats in these states where the Congress will be the lead decider. Then the second category is the states, where the Congress will fight the allies since there is little scope for alliance and there is no need for that also. These states are Kerala, West Bengal, Punjab and Delhi. There are 82 Lok Sabha seats in these four states. In Kerala, the Congress will fight CPI(M) led LDF, in West Bengal Trinamool Congress and the BJP and AAP in Delhi and Punjab.
The third category is the states where the alliance of the opposition is already functioning well. These are Tamil Nadu, Bihar, Jharkhand and Maharashtra, It is up to the leaders of the alliance to decide on expansion taking into account the situation on the ground. The fourth category is the three states Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Odisha having 63 seats. Telangana belongs to a different category. BRS is not now a participant in the opposition conclave but the BRS supremo K Chandrasekhar Rao has indicated that he still opposes BJP and he will support a non-BJP government after elections. As regards AP’s YSRCP of Jagan Mohan Reddy and the BJD of Odisha, the parties still remain unattached but the leaders will decide their course of action after assessing the 2024 polls results.
Apart, Uttar Pradesh is crucial and with 80 seats, it is the gateway to Delhi. Right now, Samajwadi Party is the main opposition party. It is trying to stitch an alliance to defeat the BJP in the Lok sabha polls. The Congress is in a mess in UP. The Party got only 2 per cent votes in the last assembly elections. It will be a great thing for the opposition if the SP and the Congress align together to challenge the BJP but that has to be based on the basis of actual strength of each party. SP may not agree to give the Congress seats much beyond its strength. This is an area where the veterans can help in bringing about an electoral understanding between the SP and the Congress. That will be a big boost to the anti-BJP opposition, if it happens.. The Congress has to be objective in assessing about its strength in Uttar Pradesh.
Apart there is Tripura with two Lok Sabha seats. Presently the CPI(M) is the strongest party of the opposition and the Congress is a partner of the alliance. But just the CPI(M) Congress combo cannot defeat the BJP in Lok Sabha polls.. The tribal party Tipra Motha is the determining force in the present Tripura politics. If it aligns with the BJP, the BJP will retain both the seats convincingly, but if TM aligns with opposition alliance, there is big possibility of the BJP losing both the seats. The Congress high command has to see how TM can be handled. Similarly, J& K with six seats can be won by the combination of the Congress, NC and the PDP if there is an electoral alliance. Both NC and PDP are active participants of the opposition conclave.
It will be a tough course for the opposition to evolve a fully acceptable seat sharing formula , but even if in 80 per cent of the Lok Sabha’s 543 seats, there is one on one understanding, that will lead to the victory of the opposition alliance in the 2024 Lok sabha polls. (IPA Service)