By Girish Linganna
The United States-led multinational naval force to safeguard and secure sea traffic in the Red Sea against attacks from Houthi rebels seems to be greatly weakened even before it started operating fully. Just a few days after the launch of “Operation Prosperity Guardian (OPG),” France, Italy, and Spain backed out and this, when the force was expected to consist of warships from over 10 countries.
Washington was almost pushed into forming the coalition. In early November, a US destroyer intercepted multiple missiles launched from Yemen. However, the United States behaved as if things were normal and did not publicly proclaim its involvement in confronting the Houthi. As long as the Houthi failed to hit Israel, the US could claim that the situation hadn’t turned urgent.
However, when the continuous Houthi attacks on ships passing through the Suez Canal endangered global seaways, the US had to intervene. It’s highly likely that the White House didn’t have an immediate detailed plan for getting involved in the Gaza conflict, but the choice to send naval and air forces to the region, capable of facing any potential enemies, was a wise military decision.
The White House was involved in diplomacy. The US and Iran sent indirect messages to each other, stating they didn’t want conflict. Iran said it didn’t know that Hamas planned to attack Israel on October 7. The US did not make this an issue. In response, Iran influenced Hezbollah in Lebanon to hold back.
All these helped reduce tensions. The Houthi, who are often seen aligned with Iran, just like the Hezbollah, however, chose to strike in the Red Sea. They called on Israel to stop its military actions in Gaza and fired long-distance missiles towards Israel and targeted US Navy destroyers in the Red Sea. Both moves failed when the missiles and drones were intercepted and destroyed. The US Navy believed its two destroyers would manage the situation adequately and expected a couple of more ships to arrive in time.
But when tankers and container ships began to be attacked almost every day, it became clear the situation was getting out of hand. Many of the largest shipping companies changed routes, avoiding the Suez Canal and taking the longer, more costly, path around Africa. This involved an extra expense of $700 for each container ship.
Considering that only ships carrying goods from Asia to Europe were affected, the extra cost amounted to an enormous $2 billion every month. This extra expense will be transferred to end-users, resulting in higher prices. Moreover, the extended travel time would lead to delays in distribution, shortages, and overall economic disruption, which will impact all countries.
The markets called for action, and the US hoped to form a strong group of up to 20 countries for “Operation Prosperity Guardian” (OPG). However, this optimism quickly dissipated as many countries declined to participate. The Pentagon believed that China, which relies heavily on open sea lanes for its exports to Europe, would join the coalition as it already had a task force, including a destroyer and a frigate, in the western Indian Ocean.
But Beijing wasn’t interested in “Operation Prosperity Guardian” as also major Arab navies of countries located along the Red Sea, such as that of Saudi Arabia and Egypt. They preferred not to get involved in a conflict with another Arab country. The US understood and remained confident that it would still be able to get enough ships for the operation. Meanwhile, France, Italy, and Spain said their navies will participate only if the mission is led by the European Union or NATO. The US currently has support from the United Kingdom, Norway, the Netherlands, Greece, Canada, and Australia.
Most of these countries already have ships in the Indian Ocean or in the eastern Mediterranean. This would allow Operation Prosperity Guardian to begin quickly and start escorting commercial ships before the New Year. The first response from the shipping industry was on Sunday when Maersk, a major Danish shipping company, declared that its ships would start passing through the Red Sea again, but only with Operation Prosperity Guardian’s protection.
If OPG can ensure safe travel, it would encourage other big companies like MSC, CGN, and the oil company BP to start using the shorter route again. However, Maersk also mentioned that they might go back to the longer route around Africa if the safety situation changes.
Even with various countries involved, Operation Prosperity Guardian will involve more than just guiding ships through the southern Red Sea. Recently, there have been several indications that the situation might escalate significantly, potentially leading to a new conflict involving key regional players.
A disturbing question is, why would the US Navy, with a large fleet already in the area, need additional ships from allies? One reason was that the US could not allocate too many ships for this mission. Two, “political hesitation”. The US did not want to be the only country seen to be attacking Yemen as it would give the impression – the wrong signal – that the United States was allied with Israel and was actively engaged in fighting the War on Gaza.
Bottom-line is, even with various countries involved, Operation Prosperity Guardian will involve more than just guiding ships through the southern Red Sea. There are indications that the situation might escalate significantly, potentially leading to a new conflict involving key regional players. (IPA Service)
(The author is a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru)
