THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The stage is set for an absorbing electoral race between the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) in the by-election to the Nilambur assembly constituency in Kerala.
The by-election has been necessitated by the exit of PV Anvar from the Left Democratic Front (LDF). Polling will be held on June 19 and the results announced on June 23. It is a prestigious battle for both the Fronts, more so for the UDF. Both sides have pulled out all the stops and spared no efforts to woo voters in this crucial hillside constituency.
No doubt, the LDF has had a headstart with the Front unanimously deciding on the candidature of M. Swaraj. In a four-cornered contest, Swaraj, a CPI(M) State Secretariat member and editor of the party daily Deshabhimani, is facing UDF candidate is Aryadan Shoukat, son of veteran Congress leader Aryadan Mohammed who dominated the Nilambur constituency for over four decades. Apart from being a politician Shoukat is a known film personality. He has written scripts for a number of Malayalam films which have won critical acclaim.
As for Swaraj, he is a battle-scarred veteran whose credentials are impeccable. Swaraj has been in the forefront of the battle against fascist and communal forces. A brilliant orator, Swaraj is also known for his great organisational skill. He made it to the State Assembly in 2016 by defeating Congress strongman K Babu from Tripunithura assembly constituency. However, in 2021 he lost to Babu.
Swaraj thinks the LDF government’s development and welfare measures will stand him in good stead. The Nilambur by-election will be the starting point for LDF’s third term in governance, added Swaraj, who had worked as the state secretary of SFI and DFYI.
The LDF has launched a well-orchestrated campaign for Swaraj by fielding all top LDF leaders including Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and CPI(M) state secretary M. V. Govindan, among others. The main campaign theme of the LDF, apart from the Government’s impressive performance and accent on people-friendly and welfare measures, has been the relentless attack against the UDF’s links with the the rabidly communal Welfare Party of India (WPI), the political arm of the Jamaat-e-Islami. The Jamaat, on its part, has openly declared its support for the UDF candidate. The very fact that the CPI(M) has decided to field its own candidate instead of backing Independents as in the past is itself indicative of this confidence.
Needless to say, the LDF’s onslaught has put the UDF on the defensive. Courting communal forces for electoral gains will be a disaster for the State, which is a haven of communal amity and secularism. This has been the thrust of the LDF’s campaign which has gone down well with the Nilambur voters. The WPI’s unconditional support for the UDF only bares the opposition’s desperation to seek the help of fundamentalist forces on either side of the religious spectrum to bolster its faltering campaign and sagging fortunes.
Cornered Congress and UDF leaders are trying to justify the links by claiming that the Jamaat has changed its earlier stand of establishing a theocratic state. They are targeting the LDF by accusing it of securing the support of People’s Democratic Party (PDP) headed by the Bengaluru serial blast case accused Abdul Nasir Maudhany. LDF leaders say the PDP cannot be compared with the WPI. Unlike the latter, the PDP has altered its political philosophy and abjured extremism. The PDP, unlike the RSS and the Jamaat is not a party which disavows the Constitution and aspires to create a theocratic state. It is ideologically committed to democracy and secularism. This being the reality there is no harm in that party backing the LDF. That is the stand of Govindan and other CPI(M) leaders.
After exiting the LDF, Anvar who has since become the State convener of the All India Trinamool Congress, is contesting as an Independent because the TMC has not been registered in Kerala. Anvar claims to have solid support among the voters of Nilambur as it has been his area of political activity for many years. Both the LDF and the UDF also think the so-called Anvar factor will have no impact on their chances. It is also a fact that Anvar’s political shenanigans and flip-flops after he left the LDF has dented his ‘popularity’ to a great extent.
He tried his level best to gain entry to the UDF. But opposition from senior Congress leaders, especially Leader of the Opposition V. D. Satheesan prevented Anvar from hitching his star to the UDF bandwagon. It was as a last resort that he joined the TMC, became its state convener and decided to contest as an Independent. But one thing can be said with certainty. The success or failure of the LDF and the UDF candidates will depend, to some extent, on the number of voters Anvar will manage to slice away.
The BJP candidate Mohan George, a prominent Christian lawyer, is not much of a force in the constituency. He has been chosen by the party obviously with an eye on the Christian voters, who account for a sizable section of the Assembly’s population. It remains to be seen whether George will be able to secure the support of the Christian voters given the anger caused by the ongoing attacks against the community and churches in North India, especially in BJP-ruled States.
While the by-election is important for both the LDF and UDF, it is crucial for Anvar, whose resignation necessitated the exercise. The outcome will not only test his ‘influence in the constituency but also seal his political fate. Anvar, who won in 2021 with the LDF’s backing, resigned from the seat after differences with Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan over his tirade against the home department, the CM’s political secretary P Sasi, ADGP Ajith Kumar and SP Sujith Das. He later joined the Trinamool Congress.
Nilambur has not been a traditional left stronghold. After K Kunjali, who won in 1965 and 1967, the CPM has not won Nilambur on its own. Even party leader T K Hamsa won in 1982 as an independent. Later, after the dominance of Aryadan Muhammad, the Left won in 2016 and in 2021 through Anvar, another independent.
The stakes are high for the Congress. The election will pose the first major challenge to the newly-anointed Congress’s state president Sunny Joseph. A defeat at Nilambur will further demoralise the Congress rank and file, besides meaning a major setback to the party-led UDF’s aim of wresting the State from the LDF in the 2026 Assembly elections. The outlook is not all that good for the UDF for a variety of reasons. First and foremost, the party is anything but united. Senior leaders continue to work at cross purposes. Differences between former PCC president K. Sudhakaran and leader of the Opposition V D Satheesan are an open secret. It remains to be seen whether Sunny Joseph, a protege of Sudhakaran, can forge unity under these trying circumstances.
The PV Anvar factor may also impact the chances of the Congress candidate. It is true that Anvar has pockets of influence in the constituency. But his presence in the fray will affect the chances of the UDF candidate more than his LDF counterpart. The main reason why Anvar decided to contest was the Congress’s refusal to field his choice VS Joy as the Congress candidate. Anvar’s tirades against the Congress candidate Aryadan Shoukat also incurred the wrath of the Congress leadership, which said a firm No to his request for joining the UDF. Although the UDF camp says the Anvar factor won’t have any effect on the Congress candidate’s chances, in private they are apprehensive of the possibility of Anvar taking away a slice of the traditional UDF vote bank. (IPA Service)
