By Tirthankar Mitra
France is struggling with political gridlock, economic uncertainty and public discontent. The new prime minister, Francis Bayrou has to run an obstacle race in this scenario. Bayrou is a seasoned centrist with decades of political experience. It is pragmatic on the part of President Emanuel Macron choosing him to negotiate a political minefield. The ability of the new prime minister to negotiate a fractured parliament is likely to define his period in office. It would be a pointer to Macron’s legacy too.
As the new incumbent takes up his prime ministerial duties he begins his term in the shadow of parliamentary defeat of his predecessor, Michael Barnier. The exit of Barnier underscores two aspects of the present day politics of France. One is the fragility of Macron’s administration. The other being polarisation of French politics.
The French parliament is split into far right, far left and Macron’s centrists. And Bayrou is painfully aware of this. That is why he spoke of scaling the “Himalayas” on the issue of reaching any form of consensus. The immediate task he has in hand is to pass a budget law for 2024.
This is a daunting task with deficit exceeding 6 per cent of GDP and rising public debt, both pointers to crisis in French fiscal system. Even as Bayrou has referred to the fiscal deficit as a “moral challenge”, the Opposition remains sceptical of his ability to govern without a bias.
Bayrou is unlikely to enjoy a period of benefit of doubt for long. The far Left and far Right who closed ranks to topple Barnier will not let the present moment last long. Bayrou and Macron have not endeared themselves to the Socialists too as the latter have not acceded to their calls to appoint a left leaning prime minister. Bayrou’s proximity to Macron does not improve the situation for him.
For the French president’s perception with elitism and disconnect with everyday concerns of the people have waned his popularity. Though Bayrou has rustic roots and a pragmatic persona, proximity to the president can cost him potential allies in the Parliament.
In this Bayrou can face an identical situation as Barnier. In other words, he can find himself governing on borrowed time as he is sans a broad coalition. It is a political paralysis. Its economic implications are grim for France as borrowing costs have been raised and investors confidence shaken.
An impasse is threatening to destabilise the French economy. For even as the centrists are pressing for economic restraint and far right and far left are pressing for increased spending. Bayrou has to strike a balance between satisfying the markets and appeasing the parliamentary factions. It is an unenviable job.
The new prime minister of France has a task which involves more than passing the budget. He has to guide his country out of the current turmoil. It is a challenge for Bayrou to govern effectively in an era where trust on institutions is declining. If he succumbs, he will be a harbinger of deeper instability. It is a time for him to function decisively and inclusively. It is a do or die situation. (IPA Service)