By Pradeep Kapoor
LUCKNOW: Extensive campaign by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Uttar Pradesh countered the anti-incumbency against Yogi government which is evident from substantial fall in seats in 2022 polls as against 2017 elections.
There is a feeling in BJP rank and file that had Modi not campaigned the way he did it would have been very difficult for party to counter anti-incumbency which saw over 20 sitting MLAs being refused entry in their constituencies by local people. The mega success of road show and outreach of PM Modi in his Lok Sabha constituency Varanasi also helped his party.
There was great anti-incumbency in the state due to farmers agitation, mishandling of corona during second wave, migrant labourers movement, unemployment, stray cattles, attack on people from minority community. Though opposition raised these issues time to time but they could not prevent BJP to form the government.
BJP successfully played kamandal card through aggressive Hindutva with repeated reference to Ayodhya, Kashi and Mathura. So much so Karnataka hijab controversy was used in UP Polls to polarise the voters. Similarly BJP also played mandal card by mobilising non- Yadav OBCs and non-jatav dalit voters which paid rich dividends in the elections.
Significantly enough BJP government took the advantage of large section of beneficiaries known as labharties getting free ration and money transfer in their accounts through various central and state schemes. BJP also got the advantage from the shift of traditional BSP voters who were benefitted through free ration and money transfer. Throughout the election campaign BSP was known as B team of BJP, so the original voters shifted to saffron brigade directly.
Though BJP registered decline in number of seats but CM Yogi Adityanath will remain face of Hindutva for BJP who would be required for 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The results have boosted the moral of BJP not only for Mission 2024 to get maximum seats in Lok Sabha from UP but also improve position in Rajya Sabha and face Presidential poll due in few months.
The results of UP Assembly polls must have shocked Samajwadi Party national President Akhilesh Yadav who was very confident of forming the government with the alliance partners. But credit goes to Samajwadi Party and its leader Akhilesh Yadav for big jump of more than 15 per cent votes and taking tally to three times more than it was in 2017.
During last three months UP witnessed successful vijay rathyatra of Samajwadi Party national President Akhilesh Yadav whose public meetings drew huge response which was unprecedented. He raised the issues of common man and promised action if voted to power. Now Samajwadi Party and its alliance partners have good presence in UP to lead strong opposition against BJP in UP Assembly. Strong opposition was missing in UP for quite some time.
There is a debate going in political circle whether Akhilesh Yadav would prefer to become Leader of Opposition in UP Assembly to take on BJP government or quit Assembly seat and sit in Parliament. Samajwadi Party is also set to improve its presence in Rajya Sabha and play important role in Presidential election for choosing opposition candidate.
The results of Assembly must have shocked Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi who despite her best efforts in campaign and great response to public meetings and road shows could not translate that into votes for party candidates. Congress Party will have to reinvent itself through new road map and strategy to revive the fortune of the party which ruled till 1989.There has been large-scale exodus of senior leaders and their followers in last few years. There has been no attempt to bring back old Congress leaders and workers by the party high command.
Bahujan Samaj Party also witnessed worst performance in any election since its formation in 1984. BSP touched all time low with only one seat and sharp decline in vote share. Due to strange compulsions, BSP national President former chief minister Mayawati was seen advising Modi and Yogi governments during last five years. For the person who was chief minister of UP four times it was a strange behaviour of Mayawati who was more critical of Congress and Samajwadi Party than of ruling BJP. During last few years there was large scale exodus of senior leaders and workers from BSP. Former bureaucrats who had been with Mayawati also joined Samajwadi Party in recent months.
These elections should also serve lesson for opposition party leaders to sit and think to how to strengthen their parties at grass root and relate to problems being faced by the people. The alliance for the sake of only election does not win the confidence of people. (IPA Service)
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