By Dr. Gyan Pathak
On July 5, 2025, the government of India published on Press Information Bureau’s website “India’s Story on Bridging Inequality”. The story had three key takeaways – India ranks fourth globally in income equality with a Gini score of 25.5; Extreme poverty dropped to 2.3 per cent in 2022-23, says World Bank; and 171 million Indians moved out of extreme poverty between 2011 and 23.
Since, Government of India led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi has always been a suspect of creating false data by changing definitions and manipulation to show a rosy picture of its achievement, PM Narendra Modi and his officials love to quote other organisations to lend credibility to their performance narrative. India’s quoting World Bank is the latest example.
World Bank says on its Poverty and Inequality Platform, “Data are based on primary household survey data obtained from government statistical agencies”. If the World Bank copied, pasted and forwarded, just the false data created by India and its Institutions which created them by changing definitions, manipulations, and calibrations, the World Bank’s assessment turns out to be false.
Now come to the India’s data, regarding poverty, inequality, and employment, since these have been the chief issues confronting India, and are closely interlinked. Since these have political ramification, these are raised during elections. The last Lok Sabha elections were held in 2024, during which PM Narendra Modi and his officials were making false claims.
Union Labour Secretary, Union Labour Minister, and Prime Minister claimed that India had been generating two crore jobs every year. Since the government had not their own data, they quoted Reserve Bank of India’s KLEMS data. The falsehood in the RBI’s data was most stark in the data for 2020-21 and 2021-22 when economy was shutdown due to COVID-19 related lockdown and containment measures. RBI data shows 31.2 per cent jump in employment in 2020-21, and 11.9 per cent jump in 2021-22. Employment jump was more surprising in the date for 2020-21, when GDP growth rate was a negative (-)5.8 per cent. Government of India have still been claiming that they have generated about 2 crore jobs every year.
Employment gives earnings to the people, and the earning in return reduces poverty and inequality. Therefore, the false data on employment makes the data on poverty and inequality false. It should be noted that the government’s employment data include about 19 per cent unpaid persons who were considered employed only because they render some help to household works.
Now let us come to the first key takeaway of the government’s narrative. It quotes the World Bank’s Gini Score, according to which India’s Gini score is 25.5. Since World Bank has said that its assessment is based on the data of the government of India, any falsehood in the India’s data makes World Bank’s assessment false. It must be noted that inequality is measured by this Gini score.
Government of India has just released Sustainable development Goal National Indicator Framework Progress Report 2025. Reduced Inequalities targets are under SDG 10, which included Gini Coefficient of Household Expenditure which is based on India’s NSS 68th round and HCES 2022-23 report.
Just after the publication of India’s HCES 2022-23 by the NSSO, politics on poverty was initiated on behalf of PM Narendra Modi just on the eve of Lok Sabha election 2024 by the Chief Executive of NITI Aayog, BVR Subrahmanyam, and claimed that poverty in the country had come down below 5 per cent. The second takeaway of the current narrative has quoted World Bank and said that extreme poverty had dropped 2.3 per cent in 2022-23.
NITI Aayog had reached its conclusion by extrapolating the HCES 2022-23 data of the government of India, by considering the poverty line of 2011-12, that had put the poverty line at Rs32 per cay, which was rejected at that time by the majority of the people, but NITI Aayog made extrapolation on the basis of that amount, making the extrapolation doubly absurd.
Now come to the Absurdity of the data of HCES 2022-23 from which the World Bank had taken its data for Gini score for India. First thing to note that the survey method for HCES 2022-23 was changed, and the Survey itself warned that these changes are required to be noted while comparing the results of HCES 2022-23. World Bank seems to have grossly ignored the warning.
HCES 2022-23 had increased the number of items to 405 from 347 in 2011-12, and additionally deleted many other items from the old list. The survey included three questionnaires in place of one. The three questionnaires included – on food items, on consumables and services items, and durable goods. There was also another questionnaire for collective information on household characteristics as well as demographic particulars of the members of the households. Such a collection method qualitatively changed the data results, which enabled the government to show a better picture on consumption and poverty. It changed the Gini score of the country, despite deterioration on the ground level.
Average estimated Monthly Per Capita Expenditure (MPCE) thus attained for the bottom 5 per cent of the rural population was Rs1373 per month and top 5 per cent had Rs 10,501. In urban areas these were Rs 2,001 and Rs 20,824. The inequality was obvious even after manipulation, which was done by including the value of free food and non-food items such as laptop, PCs, tablets, mobile handsets, bicycles, footwear, and the financial assistance.
Let us understand that assistance in kind and cash given to poor does not eradicate poverty, but only make the poverty a little more tolerable. Hence adding the value of the assistance to create a data as poverty alleviation is wrong. Poverty is alleviated only if a person starts earning enough to support their existence. Poverty continues despite government assistance, and the Prime Minister’s Garib Kalyan Ann Yojna (PMGKY) is a case in point.
About 81 crore people were poor in 2012-13, as estimated under Food Security Act. PMGKY started giving free foodgrain to 80 crore people in 2020-21, and it continues still today, and will continue until 2029. Why the number of poor refuses to decline under PMGKY?
The third takeaway of the government narrative is that 17.1 crore Indians moved out of extreme poverty between 2011 and 2023. If it is true why there is no reduction of poor people under PMGKY? If we take into account the delay in Census, there might be 14 crore additional people stricken in poverty who are unable to get free foodgrain under National Food Security Act. It is simple manipulation of the Modi government and the World Bank to presume that people are taken out of poverty due to free food grain supply, regarding which they have already made their statements.
The current narrative of the Modi government is thus false, and Gini score of World Bank for India is actually deceptive, which is based on manipulated data generated by India. (IPA Service)
