If Mayawati, the Czarina of Dalits, has betrayed her Dalit comrades, the self-proclaimed Vishwa Guru and the public face of Hindutva, Narendra Modi, has lost the trust of the Hindus. Mayawati has been known for her cunningly crafted political stratagem, but the manner in which Modi’s lieutenant Amit Shah coerced her to withdraw her party candidates right in the middle of the Lok Sabha elections, has portrayed her as an object for pity and mercy.
With consecration of Ram Temple in Ayodhya, Modi had tried to create an illusory impression that the Hindus of the country, especially of Uttar Pradesh, a saffron bastion for a decade now, were with him and would vote for BJP. But the turnout of the voters during the first two phases has made it clear that there’s no Ram Temple wave. Even while the voters were getting acquainted with the candidates, Shah forced Mayawati to change/call back her candidates.
The most amazing feature has been Mayawati obliging him without any susurrate. She chose to ignore the impact her step would have on her dalit cadres and supporters. She took this stand even while her hold on her core vote bank witnessed decline, corresponding with failure to draw in other castes and sub-castes, developing a deep distrust of Muslim voters, and her imperious approach. Over the last two decades, Mayawati has lost around 21 per cent of her core vote.
BSP got 30.43% of the total votes in 2007 assembly polls in UP when she won absolute majority crated through the support of Brahmins, Muslims, OBCs and Dalits. In 2012, votes share declined to 25.95% which further came down to 22.23% in 2017. Despite the alliance with SP and RLD in 2019, the BSP could manage 19.26% votes in UP which is 0.51% less than its 2014 vote-share.
The moot question nevertheless has been what prompted Amit Shah to force Mayawati to change her candidates and why has Mayawati bowed to Shah’s diktat? Most intriguing has been Mayawati pushing her nephew Aakash Anand outside the boundary line of the political arena, even before completing one year of his stay in politics. Mayawati had on December 10, 2023 had named Akash Anand as her successor, the party chief. The meeting, convened by Mayawati, was held to look into the party’s preparations for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, where Akash was also given the responsibility to strengthen the BSP ahead of elections.
BSP sources said that Akash has the basic competence to emerge as a formidable dalit leader. While he has aggression, he has an analytical mind too. Akash Anand was being perceived as a leader who could lead the Dalit people from the front and provide a new dimension to the Dalit politics. A case that filed against him for allegedly “using unparliamentary words and making a statement to create enmity between people” during a rally in Sitapur on Sunday that has acted as a major hindrance in his political trajectory.
While the Dalits and EBCs of late have been turning against BJP and Modi, the most severe and potent threat has come from the upper caste Rajputs, especially in eastern Uttar Pradesh. On her own Mayawati fielded strong candidates in such constituencies. But realising that Mayawati’s candidates were jeopardising the interest of the BJP candidates, Shah forced her to replace them with comparatively weak candidates. Ever since Yogi Adityanath came to occupy the office of the chef minister, he dictated the political course of action. But this is for the first time, Yogi was replaced by Shah insofar as decision-making is concerned.
The sources confide that the names of Mayawati’s BSP candidates were decided in Amit Shah’s room. Within the next 48 hours, Mayawati changed at least seven candidates. Mayawati has fielded candidates for 72 of the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh for the Lok Sabha elections. As expected, she had nominated maximum number of Muslim candidates, obviously with the intention to cut into the Muslim vote shifting en bloc to Congress.
Mayawati had fielded Srikala Reddy, wife of former MP Dhananjay Singh, a known muscleman. The MP-MLA court in Jaunpur on March 6 had sentenced Singh and his associate Santosh Vikram to seven years of rigorous imprisonment in a 2020 case of kidnapping and extortion of Namami Gange project manager, Abhinav Singhal. Since Srikala Reddy was posing a serious threat to the BJP candidate, Mayawati replaced her with sitting MP Shyam Singh Yadav. He was informed of his candidature at around 1 AM in the night.
Yet another don Raja Bhaiya was summoned by Shah and asked to shift his candidate to some other constituency. Surprising indeed Jansatta Dal (Loktantrik) president and Uttar Pradesh’s Kunda MLA Raghuraj Pratap Singh alias Raja Bhaiya, who does not go to the houses of the leaders, in an unusual development, rushed to Bengaluru to meet Amit Shah. After meeting Shah, Raja Bhaiya said he would support the BJP candidate from Kaushambi seat.
He was initially uncomfortable with Kaushambi MP Vinod Sonkar, who was again fielded by the BJP from Kaushambi, as Sonkar had openly opposed him on many occasions. However, in the meeting, held amidst changed circumstances, Raja Bhaiya assured Shah that he would support Sonkar.
Mayawati has fielded around 30 per cent Muslim candidates in the Lok Sabha election in UP. This is in sharp contrast to BSP nominating six candidates in 2019 general elections out of 38 it fielded, a meagre 15%.
In the third phase being held on May 7 on ten seats, Muslim candidates on BSP tickets are contesting from Sambhal, Firozabad, Aonla, Badaun and Etah. In the eight seats of west UP that went to polls in the first phase on April 19, BSP had fielded Muslims in Saharanpur, Rampur, Moradabad and Pilibhit. In the second phase, for which voting was held on April 26 on eight seats in west UP, BSP fielded a Muslim candidate in Amroha.
The top ten constituencies with highest Muslim population are in west UP. Rampur has 50.1% Muslims, while Moradabad has 45.5%, Bijnor 41.7%, Saharanpur has 39.1%, Muzaffarnagar has 38.1%, Amroha 38%, Bahraich 34.8%, Bareilly 33.9%, Meerut 32.6% and Kairana 30%.Mayawati’s changing the candidates at the eleventh hour at the directive of Modi which reached her through Amit Shah simply underscores the apprehension that she had been working as the B-Team of BJP. Had it not been the case, she would not have obliged Shah. (IPA Service)
